What will the intervention of Ukraine in Transnistria?

What will the intervention of Ukraine in Transnistria? The deterioration of trade relations between Kiev and Moscow ("cheese", "gas" and "wagon" of the war) has led to the fact that the Ukrainian government again decided to provide Chisinau assist with alternative gas supplies, taking those Transnistria from Russia.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the second week discussions are the results of a meeting of Transnistria E.Shevchuka with Moldovan Prime Minister Filat, which was accomplished in Odessa without the participation of representatives of the Russian Federation. Ukrainian Ministry has set itself the credit for the fact that the dialogue between Moldova and Transnistria was arranged thanks to specifically Ukrainian side.

Political scientist Vadim Kiselev sure that the consent Shevchuk at a similar meeting, from which so stubbornly refuses to ex-president Dniester Republic Igor Smirnov, just shows that Moscow made many mistakes during the presidential elections in Transnistria. Russian government has made a bet on Anatoly Kaminsky, technologies which are targeted against both Smirnov and Shevchuk against. Also, the political scientist said that Ukraine used the situation to strengthen its position in Tiraspol.

Ukrainian government after an investigation of a criminal case against Tymoshenko was without the support of the IMF. But at the same time, it does not dare to raise tariffs for housing and communal services. Therefore forced though the methods priklnnoe justify his attitude toward the West. The past week was marked by the fact that the Ukrainian authorities at the request of the Yankees had to close the free Ukrainian sharing EX.UA. but so far it is not clear or the government was forced to back down because of the social unrest and loss of official government web sites, or deftly advantage of the situation to keep the revenue from pirated products. But in terms of foreign policy and it could spoil things of, and at the same time look and feel of Brussels and Washington.

At present, Ukraine has promised, if not a hundred percent to settle the Transnistrian question, to reach its substantial progress until 2014, the time when Ukraine will chair the OSCE. According to the views of professional Gregory Perepelitsa, Russian authorities at the moment is one hundred percent occupied the presidential election, because there is no time to Transnistria. In addition, our homeland will be required, if necessary, take appropriate action on the Iranian and Syrian tracks. A similar situation may lead to the fact that our homeland will lose time, and Ukraine will be able to approve their own course for recovery potential in GUAM.

G.Perepelitsa also recalled that at the time when things between Ukraine and Russia have been more warm, Presidents 2-state signed a statement saying that the Ukrainian authorities will not conduct negotiations on the Transnistrian Republic without the participation of the Russian Federation. But after the negotiations were disrupted on gas, Yanukovych decided to return to politics, which was held by his predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, even despite the fact that he also criticized her.

According to the views of political scientist Taras Berezovka Ukrainian guarantor gave the command to assist in the process of being drawn Tiraspol in Moldova's orbit, since the republic more dense closer to the EU. Shevchuk is loyal to the West, moving away from Moscow. Because of similar developments in Ukraine only on hand. Pursuing the process of moving away from the TMR Moscow, the Ukrainian government has a nice opportunity to better their position in the eyes of the West, also coupled with Chisinau approach to European integration.

To achieve this goal during the visit of the Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat (which, incidentally, was seen as the future President of Moldova since 2014), it was decided to develop the euro area "Dniester", the purpose of which, of course, is the reorientation of the Republic of Transnistria on West. Moreover, the Romanian side has already approved a similar step.

In addition, the signing of such an agreement — this is another good reason to "a little revenge" of, which threatens to impose quotas on Ukrainian imported products, also refuses to reduce unaffordable for the Ukrainian economy gas prices. Therefore it is logical that in the Kiev meeting was rising question and the need to reduce dependence 2-countries on the issue of gas supplies from the Russian Federation, as had been promised reduced gas deliveries to the LNG terminal which will be in Odessa.

But there is another, more fundamental reason that compels Ukrainian government to play against Moscow — is the desire to expand and strengthen its own controls on industrial assets Transnistria.

According to political analyst Yuri Romanchenko, in the new Euro-region and will include Rybnitskiy Kamensky areas of PMR. It's not a secret, and the fact that the Minsk Motor Plant possess Ukrainian oligarchs who wish to secure the right to sole ownership. In addition, in the case in support of the Moldovan Transnistrian issue of rapprochement with the West Ukrainian authorities will be able to resolve with the utility itself and the question regarding the border zone in the Dniester region, due to which Ukraine is already more than a year in Moldova blames the disruptions of the Dniester hydroelectric plant. It should also be noted that, under the control of the Ukrainian oligarchs is the whole stream of smuggling, which run through the area of Transnistria.

Ukrainian government would be reluctant to establish and train control messages passing through the TMR, as Ukraine has certain prepyadstviya with providing railway communication with the Danube ports. At present, it goes through the northern areas of Moldova, which affects the rate of transport costs. And if you take into account the kind of development of relations between Tiraspol and the West, it is possible to place on the support of Transnistria, which act on the side of Ukraine.

With all the positive things trivial, Ukrainian political scientists are very skeptical about the prospects for long-term cooperation between Ukraine and Transdniestria, noting all this, that the Ukrainian side does not have such amount of resources diplomatically, to augment its own status in the course of negotiations between Russia and the West on Transnistria . Despite the fact that today the Ukrainian government could solve the coups, the instability of the negotiations between Moldova and Transnistria, also tarnished the reputation of Ukraine in the EU can play a cruel joke with the official Kiev. Open confrontation with Russia and the samples meet the needs of the oligarchs may be a precursor of what Ukraine has once again left without the support of the West, and also asked for a tough response from the Russian Federation …

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