Almost conditions have been formed to begin the latest war in the Middle East for several weeks in the Iran-Iraq border last battles between the Kurds and the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution. The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq only spur the two sides to an escalation of the conflict, in addition, the problem of Iraqi Kurdistan will also be released to the next level, it would be — we do not understand. But it can be a plainclothes war in Iraq, a new invasion of the Turkish army, brand new Iran-Iraq war — Not for nothing that the authorities Iraq dramatically in recent years stepped up, with U.S. assistance, the purchase of arms and military equipment.
People who think that because the action takes place in the deepest wilderness, meaning they do not concern them, very wrong — the problem of Kurdish carries within itself the charge of a large force, almost neustupayuschy power dilemma for Israel. This issue could undermine large region, directly touching the interests of such nations as Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq. In addition, it is necessary to have in view, and that of factor: Iraqi Kurdistan's oil supplies in the world of 6th magnitude.
Kurds are a people always difficult to manage, a source of irritation to the majestic powers of the Middle Ages — Persia and the Ottoman Empire. They were able to save part of their own identity under the pressure of Islam, the Persian empire, the Arab Caliphate and its wreckage of the Ottoman Empire. After the First World War when the British Empire and France kroili map Near East in its sole discretion, creating a completely artificial country, the Kurds do not have their own state. Although on its own population in the region, they are second only to the Arabs, Turks and Persians, it is one of the most numerous peoples of the planet that does not have its own country. In all states, they were second-class citizens in Turkey in general they were denied the right to be a nation — called "mountain Turks".
But today's global alignment gives the Kurdish people a new chance for statehood — there comes a unique time of great turmoil. Saddam Hussein, to suppress the rebellion of Kurds with chemical weapons, hanged, the central government in Baghdad weak as ever. The northern provinces of the country — Iraqi Kurdistan — have received the widest autonomy, they are de facto independent. Moreover, this "autonomy" has a good economic base: oil production, agricultural development. The economy has strengthened the construction boom in Erbil, Dahuk and Sulaymaniyah.
But Ankara and Tehran reacted very badly to this event — it was Hussein as "distasteful," but Kurdish question can lead to significant territorial, economic losses in their countries forever to knock them out of the situation of regional majestic powers. Or, at least, will have to provide the Turkish, Iranian Kurds autonomy, which also weakens them. And in Baghdad fear that Iraqi Kurdistan region, which is economically self-contained, with full independence and seize the oil fields of Kirkuk infrastructure. Washington is playing a double game: on the one hand, do not want to spoil things with the union Turkey priklnnoy administration of Iraq, on the other — you can brew good "mess" for aggressive Yankees Syria and Iran, and of Turkey to "put in place". Snow-white house is almost all done to enhance the Kurds in Iraq, almost allowing them to become self-reliant.
Kurds themselves and their favorites have seen in the recent upheavals — the wave of Arab revolutions, the dilemmas of Syria, increased pressure on Iran in the Western world — its own historic opportunity. There was a sharp intensification of the independence movement — witness the attacks in Turkey and Iraq. The dream of the development of the massive Kurdistan again enveloped the minds of the Kurdish patriots. And, apparently, decided to strike the main blow on Iran, Turkey — a U.S. ally, and Washington — the patron of the Iraqi Kurds, and Iran in recent years — the constant stimulus for Western politicians and media.
Home Iranian-Kurdish confrontation
Officially, "The Party of Free Life of Kurdistan" (PJAK) is not fighting for the autonomy and independence of the Kurdish areas of Iran, and for giving them autonomy. Great attention to their program there, for the sake of the Western world, focused on "democratic" issues: the substitution of the Iranian theocratic apparatus of democratic society, the rights and freedoms of women and ethnic and religious minorities of Iran.
This organization is banned in Iran, as a terrorist, because the main way to combat PJAK — the armed struggle, the attack on the army units, warehouses, border outposts. Tehran responded raids, in general, never crossed the line between military and police operation actions. But reacted strongly to the assassination of General Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Qasemi Abbas (his car in Qom province Kurdish rebels blew up). According to the Kurds, were killed with him and other senior officers, a total of seven officers, including the commander of the Corps at the front Sardasht, Piranshahr, Colonel Delaware Ranzhbarzade; Hadzhiaga Maroofi, commander of the Special Forces mission in the East.
Iran in response launched a military operation — to the border with Iraq have been put forward troops with heavy weapons (about 5 million people). Iranian troops not only were shelling the Iraqi countryside, and crossed its border.
Reliable disk imaging of the operation is not present, the Iranian and Kurdish Parties to report on their own victories, the 10 framework of the victims. But apparently, the "lightning victory" did not work, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the operation against "counter-revolutionary forces" will continue. It is clear that the Kurds can not withstand regular army, rich languid arms. Baghdad claimed to immediately withdraw its troops, "threatening" the deterioration of bilateral relations, the days of Saddam Hussein took place — a retaliatory strike on Iran, Iraq at the present time is not likely. There is no real favorite of Iraq, nor vsepolnotsennyh armed forces, they will require long years to restore its own combat capability.
But the battle can join armed forces of Iraqi Kurdistan, they have not been involved in a collision. They number about 100 million people, it is clear that they are inferior in arms, but, taking into account their motivation (they are called "going to die"), they can deliver Iranian waxes significant problems. In the end, counter-terrorist operation can result in a real bloody war.
The situation is very complicated: Iran is coming, Ankara promised to prevent the creation of the Kurdish self-contained country, though in what way, the Americans are going to withdraw, with all this, understand the complexity of the situation in Kirkuk, where ready to grab at each other's throats Arabs and Kurds offer change their troops to the UN force there, except that there are none.
There is another fascinating nuance — Washington can use this conflict to an attack on Iran. Thus, the administration has accused the white houses in the management of relations with Iran, "Al-Qaeda".
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