Catalonia: Farewell, Spain?

This year in various parts of the globe separatists or gain victory after victory in the election, or intensely make plans for the future.

In the U.S., active citizens, as you know, are collecting signatures on petitions to withdraw from many states of the USA. It is not that all states have typed the number of signatures required for the consideration of the petition of snow-white house, but recently Barack Obama will have to give an answer to the two southern states, which set a record for the number of the votes cast — Texas and Louisiana. (At the time of writing this article for department Texas voted 117.5 thousand people for independence Louisiana — more than 37 thousand people.).

Separatists from «Parti Quebecois» defeated in the fall election (September 4) in Quebec. This party is for the province's secession from Canada. In the past party twice suit referendum on separation: in 1980 and 1995. In the first plebiscite against the secession of Quebec voted 59.6% of the voters, while the second — 50.6%. Another minor party work, little fight, little crisis — and Quebec could become a separate state. The truth, according to a not so long ago, public opinion poll, today only 28% of Quebecers support the idea of the independence of the province. Still, the victory party of separatists states a lot. At least, with this particular ruling party Quebeckers streamed into the future.

In Belgium, the Flemish nationalists after the elections to local authorities in Flanders advanced ultimatum to the government. They claimed the transformation of the country into a confederation. October 14 this bluntly favorite of the party "New Flemish Alliance" Bart De Wever, who received 38% of the vote in Antwerp, became its mayor and almost took control of the second-largest economic center of the country. Flemish politician said that with the French-speaking Wallonia in Belgium, part of it out of the way:

"We have two cultures and two democracies … Our nationalism — is not a goal but a means to their democracy movement in Flanders."

In 2014, the will a referendum on Scottish independence. The vote will make a single question: "Do you want total independence?" And British Prime Minister David Cameron and the first minister of Scotland Alex Salmond have signed an agreement that will be allowed to vote to all Scots over sixteen years. But the young Scots listed as the main supporters of sovereignty. In general, for independence Scotland now acts from 30 to 40% of Scots, so read on sovereignty in advance.

Basque Nationalist Party month back defeated the elections in the Basque Country: in a new parliament in her 27 seats out of 75 (previously it represented 30 deputies). Its ideology: Basque nationalism and the creation of self-contained or, at least, the autonomous Basque country.

Need to see that the two Spanish region — the Basque Country and Catalonia — a total of create about 25% of the country's GDP and 10% of the territory occupied by Spain.

His desire for separatism in the days of confirmed and Catalonia.

Here on the early parliamentary elections defeated the nationalist coalition "Convergence and alliance Catalonia. " However, for all that she has lost previous positions.

KCK failed obtain an absolute majority in the regional parliament. And if earlier it represented 62 deputies, but now their number has dropped to 50 (30.5% of the vote). So Makar, the coalition won an absolute majority in parliament (68 seats), the right to realize the idea of separation of the region from Spain.

Second place after the elections have taken "Left of Catalonia Republicans" (21 seats, 13.6% of local residents). Third place was awarded to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (20 seats, 14.4%).

President of Catalonia and the favorite of the coalition "Convergence of Catalonia and the alliance" Artur Mas is not very pleased with the fruits of the election: now he will have to join with other parties to initiate a referendum.

But he was found with whom to merge. In Catalonia, but his party, there are two parties who support secession from Spain — said "Left Republicans of Catalonia» (ERC) and the small party «Candidatura de Unidad Popular» (CUP). Together the three parties received 55% of the seats in the 135-seat parliament.

Yet the idea of separation of Catalonia from Spain and its transformation into a separate independent government, and along with a new member of the European Union, there are very popular: their expressed about half the population.

Alignment of the majority of Catalan in an interview with "Voice of Russia" is not so long ago expressed the mayor of the municipality of San Pedro de Toreli Jordi Fabrega:

"According to surveys, the further referendum for the independence of Catalonia voted over 53% of the inhabitants of the province, that is, this idea has the support of the majority of the population. As the results of the voting will be announced — and I have no doubt that the Catalans would vote for independence — we will have to seek independence from the central government. If Madrid refuses to comply with the Catalans, we want to ensure their independence through international universities. I wish to highlight that we are going to act only within the framework of democracy, there will be no riots and violence. As for the national currency, then we are more inclined to preserve the euro, because the plan to become a state — a member of the European Union. We want to make your own money and the Ministry of Justice, and the State Bank and the Department of Taxation. By the way, I do not see any barriers to entry into the European Union of Catalonia, taking into account that we produce, and do not ask, because 10% of Spain's GDP is specifically here. I think that the European Union needs a prosperous country that would not ask for a loan. "

If Fabrega referred to by 53%, according to the October poll «Centre d'Estudis d'Opinio», separation of the region from Spain support 44% of the Catalans, and another 26% believe that Catalonia should become a federal state with a large degree of autonomy.

Autumn in Barcelona to demonstrate for the Catalan independence came almost half a million people. That of the highest civilian activity did not expect not only the Spanish authorities, and the organizers of the demonstration.

Meanwhile, the Catalan referendum independence can not be legally binding for the central government of Spain. According to the 1978 Constitution, a referendum similar to appoint only Madrid. Catalonia or the other province has the right to hold referenda on local issues only. Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has already said, that the holding of a referendum without the consent of Madrid unconstitutional, for it requires permission of the central government. Fabrega vain mentions that after a local referendum will be put forward and claim the Catalans to the central government. Certainly, we are talking specifically about the require
ment to initiate a referendum official Madrid.

As for joining the EU, Brussels (everyone knows that in Europe — the crisis) is not in a hurry with the adoption in new members. Catalonia, even if it is safely freed from the "yoke" of Madrid, will have to go through all the procedures of entry that previously held Spain. By the way, Madrid might vote against membership of Catalonia.

At a press conference during the Ibero-American Summit in Cadiz, reporters asked the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso: Will some areas, leaving the composition of the EU member state to pass anew procedures for EU membership? Reporter "Voice of Russia" Reply Barroso wrote:

"Legal situation in 2004 did not undergo configurations, as to that effect in the text of the Lisbon contract has been no configurations. And so I can confirm with absolute certainty that the position of the European Commission in this matter remains the same. "

As usual, we will solve all the economy. Notwithstanding the results of the survey, it is unlikely that in the future the Catalans really separate from Spain. Hurry, it will go about any special rights or benefits, attempts to bargain for a huge share of the Spanish budget.

Catalonia puts Spain in the budget about 20% of the total GDP, and is in the form of subsidies and payments to about 8% of GDP (pays 12-16 billion. euro more than it receives.) Specifically, such an "injustice" and the alignment leads to an increase in nationalist sentiment and the popularity of separatism. Meanwhile, almost four-fifths of the products sold in the Catalan area of Spain. DEPARTMENT Barcelona will face the question: to whom to sell? After Madrid finished to let these products on their terrain. So considers Jose Raga, Dr. Madrid Catholic Institute of the Apostle Paul. A similar conflict took place in 2005: the Spanish, angered by expressions of Catalan nationalists have finished taking the production of sparkling wine, and Barcelona has lost several million euros.

Responses to such a clear economic issue Arthur Masa not.

Old Guy newsagent Jose read the correspondent of the newspaper "Trud" Sergey Pankratov lecture about the bright morning;

"Catalonia is larger than Belgium, and our population is higher than in Denmark or Finland. The gross national product more than in the same Denmark. We are hard-working people, but the Spaniards have all taken away. Tell me, why do we have to feed the same Andalusia, who lives on the grant of the country? "

Pankratov says:

"A characteristic feature: the lower the social status of the interlocutor, than he is poorer, more fiercely proves that in the case of separation will ride in clover. But representatives of the middle class — well-paid doctors, lawyers, bankers — the independence they say evasively. Businessmen same in most strongly against divorce. Vintner Marianne Laporte directly states that if disconnected from Catalonia in Spain, it is possible to close the business. "Where am I with my wine? Although some businessman knows just how to lose market and how hard to break into the new. "

Suffer economically and Spain. Since the country is in a crisis situation, the separation of Catalonia undermine and without that its budget deficit, the share of Catalonia in what amounts to almost 19%. With all this planned budget deficit by the end of 2012 — 6.3%. In the separation of Catalonia Spain lose market confidence in the EU. At the same time programm for "tightening their belts", worked out in Madrid, might just burst.

Catalonia is in some ways can win, but almost everything — and lose.

In the past year, the GDP of Catalonia was $ 200 billion. Euro — more than Ireland (159000000000. euros) or Portugal (171 billion. euros).

GDP per capita in Catalonia in 2011 amounted to 27,430 euros. This is 19% higher than average in Spain, 9% higher than in the EU and only 4% less than the average in the EU.

Shred industry in the Catalan economy higher — about 17% of GDP compared to 12% in Spain.

In recent years, Catalonia has suffered greatly in the explosion of the housing bubble and mortgage lending. Property prices have fallen by 38% compared with the peak in June 2007.

Catalonia's GDP from 1999 to 2008 grew by 32%, but in 2011 was 1.7% lower than in 2007. In general, things are much worse in Spain — minus 3.5%.

The level of debt in real time Catalunya is 22% of GDP — the highest figure in the middle of all the Spanish regions. In the separation of the region would most likely take over the debt of the central government. In such a case, it is unlikely to be destined to enter the EU — according to the Maastricht Treaty, the national debt again acceding country must not exceed 60% of GDP, and if Catalonia will have to take part of the Spanish debt, this value may be exceeded.

So, not worth powder and shot. In the EU newcomer country does not come quickly, well and in general its slim chances: Spain simply veto. Catalonia debt will grow at times, and well-being of the Catalans will decrease accordingly. Madrid Barcelona can block products, and profits instead of Catalan businessmen have to count losses. So Makar, you can read about the alleged separatists economy bargaining with the official Madrid, and not to separate. Another thing is that the results of the referendum, which is planning to initiate a coalition of "Convergence of Catalonia and the alliance", and will be an occasion for bargaining.

Surveyed and commented Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for

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