If in 2010, against the backdrop of the global economic crisis, it was decided to admire the economy China — And fear it — that in 2012, when growth China's GDP has slowed down a little, suddenly became fashionable to sound not only of "some decrease" the growth rate of China's GDP, but even the "recession."
Trumpet solo in the orchestra gravediggers Chinese economic miracle takes America. It would seem, not the Yankees, in which 11 million mortgage borrowers in the U.S. — bank debtors whose fate hangs in the balance, and more than 5 thousand people have already lives in tents, to criticize the decline in Chinese real estate market. But — criticized.
For example, the South American "Los Angeles Times" April 13, made the front page of the newspaper great article by David Pearson, "China's economy has slowed down to the very leisurely pace of growth in 3 years."
The creator says that an overheated Chinese economy cooled in the first quarter of the current year up to the leisurely pace of growth over the past three years — because of reduced demand for exports and a slump in the property market.
China's gross domestic product grew by 8.1% in the first quarter compared with the first quarter of 2011. These data led the National Bureau of Statistics of China, reports journalist. Compares with 8.9% growth in the IV quarter of last year and reported that such a measure "below the expectations of many analysts." Here is hasty conclusion that a similar measure could "spook investors," as the reason to come to a "hard landing" the second largest economy in the world within a couple of years earlier shows the highest growth rates. The journalist refers to an unnamed "economists" who claim that "the downturn could spiral out of control depending on how heavy is the European debt crisis" and on what will be "the results of a two-year campaign of the central government's efforts to deflate the property bubble in the country . "
Further noticed that the amount of loans in China have gained in value of 160 billion dollars (up to the end of March 2012). The journalist writes that state-controlled Chinese banks do not have access to the same area of market financing that "available in the more advanced countries such as the United States."
"This is the most difficult period in the last 30 years — said Alan Wang, head of trading footwear company in the southern town of Shenzhen, factories, whose clients live in Spain and France. — Many people will not be able to survive. "
The article says lowering the growth of Chinese exports while lowering import growth. But significant, and even more devilish drop in essence is not marked: journalist deliberately associates the first quarter of the present year to the fourth quarter of the previous — replaced in order to compare I quarter 2012 Quarter I, 2011 It is well known that in the last quarter of the year, economic growth is enhanced and the first quarter of slowing. This is typical for the economy, for example, Russia. And for those "developed" countries like the U.S., it is also typical.
Municipal restrictions aimed at suppression of profiteering activity in the property market in China, writes on a South American journalist, "prompted some real estate companies to reduce transaction." So lasts for several months.
In its quarterly report, Global Bank in Washington called on China to loosen replacement requirements for banks — to stabilize the country's economic growth.
"The days of growth, expressed in the double digits, can be forgotten forever," — writes with the fervor of the creator of the article.
Beijing could rely on domestic consumption to power the economy tribute match, says journalist. But for this purpose, "will require painful reforms", which may suffer from "entrenched interest groups."
The only commentator articles by David Pearson toxic saw: "The growth fell from 8.9% to 8.1%, and it met the story took a whole page on the front page of" Los Angeles Times "?"
Just 18 months back in the American press could be met articles full of wonder, ecstasy and even horror of the engine of China's economy, overtaking South American.
For example, in «New York Times» on August 15, 2010 a report was published by David Barboza from Shanghai, "China overtakes Japan to become the second-largest economy." The report dealt with the "ascent of China" and that all other countries will have to reckon with the "new economic superpower." It was also said that in 2030 China will outstrip the U.S..
"China is already one of the main reasons for the growth of the world economy — we read in the report. — Management of the country began to feel much more confident on the international scene and has received more exposure in Asia, Africa and Latin America on issues such as special trade agreements and multibillion dollar resource deals.
"They have a tremendous impact on the world economy and become the dominant power in Asia — said Eswar Prasad, a doctor of trade policy at Cornell Institute and former managing divisions Chinese IMF. — Many other countries in the region are in the wake of China, and it is remarkable for an economy with a low per capita income. "
In addition, David Barboza said: "Beijing is also beginning forms the global dialogue on a wide range of issues, for example, the views of analysts, in the past year, he claimed that walking in the dollar as the main reserve currency of the world must be stopped."
That's for you to ecstasy mixed with horror. And now — growth dropped from 8.9% in the fourth quarter to 8.1% in the first quarter, and started talking about the "recession." And biased and wrong, gentlemen.
II. Rival Hollywood
"In the last quarter (October — December 2011.) China's GDP growth year on year was 8.9%, and by the end of 2011 the economy grew by 9.2%. In 2010, GDP grew by 10.4%. In the I quarter of 2012 relative to the previous quarter, China's GDP grew by 1.8%. It should be noted that the Global Bank (WB) has lowered its own forecast of China's economic growth in 2012 to 8.2% from the previous 8.4%. Expectations of a "soft landing" of China's economy are associated with debt neuvvyazkami and recession in Europe, which is the main trading partner of China "("RBC", Tatiana Romanova).
"The representative of the State Bureau of Statistics Sheng Luan said at a news conference that qoq GDP for the three months rose 1.8%. According to the preparatory statistics, China's GDP over that period headed for 10.7995 trillion yuan ($ 1.72 trillion).
Yet, Sheng Luan said that, despite the adverse financial conditions in the world and a general downturn, China's economy continues to grow "quite spirited pace" ("Rosbalt").
Yet, the economic problems in China are. And rather big. But they were in 2010, and earlier. China's economy has been growing for 30 years, but that does not mean that it is flawless. O
n the contrary, as rightly saw above Eswar Prasad, a China — economy "Low-income population." From 1979 to 2010., That is, for 30 years, GDP per capita rose from 179 to 500 dollars, on this index, China ranked 91 th in the world. This is one of the major problems in China, because of which the country's "stable" small domestic demand. What did for the growth of industry and trade, who were forced to focus on exports, the data can have a look at the resource medelle-finance.com. "Minus" there is little, I assure you.
The volume of foreign trade built up — but it is growing, and much more spirited pace and imports, which has already led to a small deficit balance in the trade balance of the country. "In 2011, the volume of exports from China was $ 1.9 trillion, an increase of 20% compared with 2010, while imports rose even more — by 25% to $ 1.74 trillion. So Makar, the trade surplus is melting at the sight of the Middle Kingdom in February of this year, China's General Administration of Customs had already committed to a negative balance of $ 31.5 billion year later — two balance of foreign trade of China may just go into minus. For China it is not so scary: the previous "fat years", he amassed huge cash reserves. But he is no longer the only provider of products, and more and more important market for the huge number of trading partners. As can be seen, the economic slowdown and the social unrest in China will inevitably reduce demand in the Chinese market and have a negative impact on a large number of companies in other countries "("Morning," Andrew Milovzorov).
Artur Akhmetov, a senior analyst at IFC "Solid", highlights the following "factors of tension" in China's economy:
"1) The imminent fall of export performance due to the unresolved debt problems in the euro area and the helplessness of domestic demand in the United States.
2) The overheated real estate market. Sky-high prices could fall sharply.
3) lending to the economy. Exclusively in March lending rose to $ 1 trillion. yuan, a significant part of the population sits in debt. This can lead to a crisis of non-payments "("RBC").
Another serious problem of China — as paradoxically, almost all artificial — is associated with overpopulation. In China, 1.6 billion live. people. And, as it shows the same A. Milovzorov each year from 200 to 300 million Chinese from rural areas come to town for work. What if they are in a year went out and brought the work? Though not all, but part of them? Went out and brought a method to earn even one measly buck that feeds both them and their families? .. And the flip side of the coin: the aging of the population,
artificially induced state applets to reduce the birth rate. China "may not be enough labor! Hopes for a new acceleration of the economy is melting as the population ages. Effects begin to appear rough and nekompitentnoy policies to reduce fertility, conducted in the 70 years of the last century. Then, urban families were not allowed to have more than 1 child, rural — more than two-hoo. As a result, at this point in Chinese society rapidly growing proportion of elderly people and young fraction decreases: it is expected that by 2020 the number of Chinese aged 20 to 24 will decrease by more than 40% — from 125 to 70 million people. So very soon the society will not be able to support extensive growth of its economy, and the government will be hard to do even more than his moderate social obligations' ("Morning," Andrew Milovzorov).
At the same time in China decreases the number of women. "According to the data of 2011, the guys in the Middle Kingdom is 25 million more than the ladies, and this gap continues to increase. Abortions after determining the sex of the child was reached epidemic proportions, such that in the Chinese TV in the spring run PSAs — how cool bear girls … they are kind, sweet and love to mom and dad as opposed to aggressive boys. Officially in China are allowed to have only one child — for the right to have a second is to detach tax of 3 thousand dollars is why ladies waiting for beautiful girls, often abort the pregnancy if possible to get the 1st child, so let it be a boy — money earner in the family and support in old age "("Arguments and Facts", Jora Zotov).
One solution to China's economic problems, according to the A. Milovzorova, in China will probably increase in the qualifications of seasonal workers — the hundreds of millions that are moving into the town from the countryside to work. The Chinese will have to increase their production skills, and simultaneously increase the prices of products are fully compete with the Europeans. Socket production — in the past. If the Chinese are not cross with his own almost all of the extensive model development to the rich, the Europeans and the Americans they will ruin their crisis, which sucked all the world like a quagmire. The West does not want that to China was the "locomotive", and wants the West to China was an ordinary carriage.
So far, China has taken another second place … the film industry in the world economy, overtaking in the first quarter of 2012, Japan. It is reported by the resource «China Daily».
Last year the film market in China grew by 33.3% to $ 2.08 billion. bucks. Now is the time to panic Hollywood! (For comparison, in the U.S. and Canada film market was 10.2 billion dollars. Dollars in 2011. It declined by 4% compared with 2010. At the same fraction of the U.S. on the world market increased from 57.3% in 2010 to 58.4% in 2011). The number of cinemas in China has increased from 4753 in 2006 to 10700 in 2011. None country in the world, according to the article, is not growing at such a spirited pace. However, and here is the problem: 90% of revenue comes from China's film industry of cinema, DVD and implementation are low because of piracy.
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