China: all first

China has failed to suspend its own "locomotive", even if I have desired. Now Celestial pulls him almost the entire global economy. Poor economic — evil and China. Excellent global economy — gets better and grows stronger and China. But whose relationship more? It seems that the world economy. In the commercial rating of China and the U.S. changed places for the last 6 years. Now China — the leading trading partner of 127 countries (for comparison: in the United States — the main partner of 76 states). China surpassed the U.S. in the markets of their strongest allies, such as Australia and South Korea. Where the U.S. retreat, China actively presses.

China throughout the first

I. China and the U.S.

If the 2010 South American bureaucrats dared to teach Chinese to which the yuan against dollar they need to install, and now Washington, we can say keep quiet. One can endlessly read about American values or the triumph of democratic standards, but we can not assure a strong and growing government that it carries out are not fully adequate monetary policy. As the saying goes, deal first with its crisis, and later begin to teach those who succeed.

Half a year back there was sluggish last call Washington to strengthen the yuan:

"Despite the measures taken by Beijing, the Chinese currency Yuan is significantly undervalued (relative to the U.S. greenback)" — that phrase from the report of the Ministry of Finance of South American, dedicated to monetary policy trading partners of the United States.

But the creators of the report refrained from any accusations of China in handling money or something similar. By the way, nedavneshnih election debates, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney publicly stated its intention to urge the government to account for the Celestial monetary manipulation, and along with the dumping. It seems that this is less than the pre-election rhetoric. Shouted — and forgotten, and before that gave the Finance Ministry. In short, the Chinese Americans do not take orders.

Again: do not assure a strong government that it holds is not fully adequate monetary policy. It is pursuing the line that it is profitable, and China's position in the global market is such that the U.S. is the country can only envy. The relatively weak yuan — favorable economic base for the exporting country, and it is not necessary to explain. Similarly, the weak ruble profitable for Russian oil and gas industry: more rubles to the dollar, which is trading for raw materials.

The latest OECD report "Looking into 2060 year: Long-term growth prospects " noted among other things, that by 2060, the share of China and India in world GDP will surpass all 34 countries that belong to the OECD (the combined weight of 2-betrothed countries currently stands at a little more than one-third). China to surpass European Alliance on the results already this year, and four years later would naikrupneyshey economy in the world.

And the status of the world's favorite Chinese economic retain until 2020. Further forward may escape India and Indonesia (reason: the decrease in China's working-age population). According to the forecast of the OECD by 2060 dependency ratio in China (the ratio of the old and the working-age population) will quadruple. At the moment, China wins thanks to strong growth in labor productivity and a great investment the last 10 years.

By 2025, according to experts, the total GDP of China and India will exceed the total amount of the economies of the G7, and by 2060 the economy 2-states, taken together, will be larger than the economies of the "Big Seven" in half.

As for China's income per capita, by 2060 it will be 25% higher than the same period in today's dollars.

At the Congress of the CPC has been said that the Chinese economy resist the downturn, measures will be taken, ensure the sustainable development of the economy, namely, measures to increase domestic consumption, increase incomes, controlling inflation and restructuring investments.

Also at the Party Congress, Hu Jintao submitted rather a fundamental plan for the development of the motherland. Among other things, it says on the planned doubling of per capita income by 2020. A similar objective reflects China's installation is to achieve the highest standards of living, like the Western, and at the same time reduce social tensions. In solving these problems will not only secured a highest incomes, and increase domestic demand, which is lacking in China. Coupled with that is natural that ambitious goal for China, in addition to economic recovery, and a challenge — financially, economically and politically — Western domination of the planet.

Xi Jinping said that China will make up for the decline in exports to advanced countries through the expansion of trade in the Asian continent: in fact there as before there is a kind of financial dynamics.

As for the prospects of the Chinese currency, they are the most optimistic. Yuan will soon become a part of the latest regional monetary architecture, will also be sought power in order to become Yuan international reserve currency.

That's it.

In such a situation the U.S. and Western Europe will not be able to breathe in the back of the PRC. In the best case, the United States or Germany, if only she will not become the center of the EU, will have to catch up with India.

The U.S. government is well aware: in the crisis criteria competitive struggle South American Chinese manufacturers lose. This is despite the fact that a significant part of the American (and European) manufacturing has long been relocated to the Middle Kingdom — for the sake of profits. In other words, the financial recession in the U.S. and the EU also explains the man-made factor strangulation of the economy, given away at an opponent's legs for short-term profits, is a strategic long-term planning. They fought for — for it and ran.

South American and European planners could not imagine that semicottage plastic toys manufacturers and workers assembly plants will achieve such success. Today almost the whole world is focused on the China market. Celestial imports oil and ore from countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which at the same time the economy picks up and exporting countries have firmly "podsevshih" in China. China factory consume produced half the world's iron ore. China has become naikrupneyshim exporter of steel. Cooperate closely with the Chinese Zambia and Chile — the largest copper producers, and Australia — the leading exporter of coal and iron ore. Earlier priority for these countries was a partnership with the United States. China is "pushed" America and the markets of Malaysia and South Korea: there he orders make up for their own sverhtehnologichny productions. Company «Samsung», «Nokia» and South American «Apple» sverhtehnologichny gather their things in China.

United States in the world economy is still in first place, China — In the second. Washington is not going to give up positions, and China is not going to stop its own rushing full steam "locomotive".

A certain increase in tensions between the U.S. and China due to the adoption of the first of the year in Washington, the strategy
document: «Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense». The strategy states that the strengthening of China in the long run can affect the economy and security of the United States. The main points in the received U.S. military strategy is to reduce the number of U.S. military forces in the simultaneous concentration of budget resources for the development of satellites and unmanned aircraft. The strategy also involves refocusing resources on the APR.

Obama starts and wins — that's the plan at the white houses. Chinese with this, of course, can not agree. Withdraw from the development plans they can not either.

No, it's not about the war between China and the U.S.. It's about competition and about the regional impact. At the moment, as the experts, the struggle is for possession of the rights to energy resources. Analysts say they write that the main instrument of China and the United States in the struggle for markets in the coming years will be oil and gas. The "Arab Spring" in Africa triggered by the U.S. just in order to deprive China of sources of mineral raw materials (first of its supplies from Libya and Sudan — in the latest China has long been entrenched, and split the country into two warring Sudan almost a year has deprived the Celestial oil supplies). Iran — also link a single strategic chain: for China — the customer of Iranian oil. Closes all designated strategic document under which the South American naval forces are uniformly distributed on the major routes of transportation of oil from Venezuela, China, Nigeria, Sudan and the Middle Eastern countries.

Political analyst Mikhail Khazin reads:

"Most likely, the world will disintegrate into monetary zone. Victory or defeat will be determined only one that hath this zone will be more — the U.S. or China. This question has an answer can be given. This struggle for world markets from the plane of the fight on the same markets will move to a different plane — money. Specifically, this will be the most exciting in world geopolitics and economics in the coming 3-5 years. "

The above forecast OECD gives us a clue who will win in the global race for resources, and whose currency may first push, and then absolutely crush the South American dollar. Four years left before the jump, "tigers" in the first place, according to the OECD — just poseredke between 3 or five years, which gave fellow Hazin. In other words, in 2016 China will be the favorite of the global economy, pushing the U.S. into 2 nd place.

II. China and Our homeland

December 5 ended ninth round of talks, "Energy Dialogue: Our homeland — China" with the role of Russian electricity exporter in the Far East — JSC «Eastern Energy Company" (WEC) — and the State Grid Company of China.

Until the end, the WEC agreed to supply 2.6 billion in China. kilowatt-hours, and in 2013, the company plans to export increment of up to 3 billion. kwh. Moscow and Beijing have caused and with the price of electricity, yet she has no disk imaging. It is not enough that the parties will continue to refine and electricity exports — most likely it will be about their upcoming increase.

After the signing ceremony, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Dvorkovich said that in the first nine months of 2012, WEC increment of electricity to China to 1.8 billion. kilowatt-hours, in comparison with the period 2011 more nearly in half.

In addition, the talks on December 5 was signed the "road map" for the development of cooperation in the coal sector. It was made and an agreement on cooperation in the evaluation of conditions of energy markets.

The Chinese firm is very interested in the role of competition on Gerbekano-Ogodzhinskaya coal-bearing area of the Amur region. The competition this Russian government plans to spend in 2013.

Continued and talks of "Gazprom" and the Chinese company CNPC, on Russian gas supply prices in China. Previously, the parties were fundamentally agreed gas supplies by two routes: Western — 30000000000. cu. m (project "Altai") and Eastern — 38000000000. cu. The construction of the gas pipeline "Altai" will start after the conclusion of the contract of sale of gas from the Chinese side.

In addition, on December 5, open a discussion and the possibility of joint construction of nuclear power plants in the area of third States.

"We appreciate the excellent what's happening at the moment in our cooperation in the nuclear field, and, from our point of view, there is enormous potential — Dvorkovich said comrade. — The Chinese side raised the issue of expansion of cooperation, including the construction of nuclear reactors in third countries. We consider such proposals. "

Countries on the ground which can be implemented such projects are not named yet. It was only on plans for joint cooperation.

In addition, at a meeting on Wednesday, the sides signed a protocol on the construction of the second stage of Tianwan NPP. Construction will begin this month.

"This opens the door in order to enhance cooperation and to start consultations on the design and construction of new nuclear power plants," — said Dvorkovich.

The general contract for the construction of the second stage of Tianwan NPP "Atomstroyexport" and Jiangsu Nuclear Power Company (JNPC) signed in November 2012, in St. Petersburg.

"Receiving such agreement strengthens Russia's position on the world market of nuclear energy as a country capable of implementing projects at least some degree of difficulty in compliance with all current safety requirements. Because at the moment Tianwan nuclear power plant is considered one of the most non-hazardous plants in China. It is expected that the agreement for the construction of the second stage will be a big contract. At the moment it is estimated at approximately $ 4 billion. euro, but the final figure will depend on the specific responsibilities of the parties amounts to be fixed in the agreement, "- considers economic analyst Lilia Bruev.

Also on December 5 Russian side handed over to Chinese partners a draft intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the refinery Tyantszinskogo.

Deputy Prime Minister Wang Qishan at the negotiations said, that fine also implemented joint projects for cooperation in the supply of coal. The volume of Russian coal supplies to China could reach by the end of this year, 18 million tons, of which 3 million tonnes — by rail, the rest — through the ports.

In the Chinese market now focuses Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, who decided to "change" from the Middle Kingdom the United States. If the price in the U.S. technology assets is very high, Chinese market from the standpoint of investment looks more promising. Usmanov's company «USM» has a shred of Chinese Internet giant «Alibaba Group Holding» and «360buy Jingdong Mall». Billionaires in China interests more network trade.

In the U.S., there Usmanov invested in stocks «Facebook», which since the initial public offering (IPO) in May of this year have fallen by as much as 28%. One is forced to switch to a Chinese …

Trade turnover between Russia and China is growing by old days and bounds. Acc
ording to Chinese customs statistics, from January to October 2012, the turnover of the Russian-Chinese trade increased compared with the same period last year by 13.4% — to 73.6 billion. bucks. Russian exports to China increased to 37.2 billion. dollars (12.7%), while imports from China rose to 36.4 billion. dollars (14.1%).

China's direct investment in Russia in the first nine months of 2012 increased compared with the same period of 2011 by 36% to $ 266 million dollars.

China now — the main trading partner of Russia. Russia ranks ninth in the list of 10 major trading partners of China. The pace of growth of trade Our homeland took the 5th place among the major trading partners of China — after South Africa, Vietnam, the Philippines and Hong Kong. How unfortunate it did not sound in Russian exports, as before, is dominated by food commodity groups, the relative weight of the same machinery and technical products is very low. Imports from China — the situation is reversed. Here machinery and equipment in the structure occupy the first place.

III. China and Central Asia

Yvette Frolov, a senior fellow at the Center for Asia and the Middle East, Russian Institute for Strategic research, considers, that China is becoming the new "Big Brother" for the countries of Central Asia.

Countries of the region have been betrothed for the last two decades the way from the border "barter" of cooperation to vsepolnotsennyh partnerships, which are in the database interaction in the energy sector and joint projects in non-oil sectors of the economy. The China factor has become an integral part of regional geopolitics. Refute it or argue with that stupid.

Back in 2006, China has become the third largest trading partner of the region — after Russia and the EU. In 2000-2010. vkladyvatelnaya activity on China Central markets has increased by 20-40% (depending on the specific directions). At first the plan for 10 years out: sverhtehnologichny production, mineral resources development, infrastructure construction, agriculture, transportation, power generation, oil and gas production.

The priorities for capital investment China has chosen Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Central Asia is now China a "strategic rear". A cut of Beijing considers the broad transit capacity of the Central Asia — the way to Europe, the Middle and Near East, the Caucasus region. In the end, the most simple: the Central Asian countries — an important market for Chinese goods, and immediately — energy supplier whose role may increase over time. The fact that the instability of the situation in some regions of energy suppliers (mentioned above in the article of Iran, and of African countries), also the problem of maritime terrorism in Southeast Asia, the Chinese government has been forced to explore oil and gas transport through overland pipelines. This determined the special attention to China energy cooperation with Russia and the countries of Central Asia.

Keeping in mind including energy security, China is doing at the moment strategic focus on building relationships with the countries of Central Asia on a bilateral basis, focusing on cooperation in the field of energy, transport and logistics, and trade and regional security. China's primary interests — the oil and gas industry in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as the nuclear industry in Kazakhstan. In the field of transport focuses Beijing attaches to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the field of water resources in the first plan put Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

And if Beijing sees Central Asia as a raw rear, the local authority sees in it a new "Big Brother."

Regarding the structure of imports and exports, it is very sad recalls the Russian pattern. I. Frolov writes:

"Essentially accelerated the pace of development of China's trade with Central Asia. In 1992, foreign trade turnover was $ 527 million, in 2000 it was $ 1 billion., And by 2009 headed for $ 25.9 billion. In all this there is a minor bug diversification of exports from Central Asia to China: the supply of Kazakhstan is 25% made up of oil, 25% — of non-ferrous metals, another 25% — of iron and steel. Metals account for a third of the Kyrgyz exports to China, chemical products and non-ferrous metals — 20 and 25%, respectively. What did the import from China to Central Asia, the 92% of the total volume of finished products. "

In addition, China has been active in the development of transport and logistics infrastructure in the region. One of the larger projects in this area is the construction of the Uzbek-Kyrgyz-Chinese railway line Andijan — Karasu — Torugart — Kashgar. Another trend — the construction of modern highways that go to the western borders of China. In Xinjiang Beijing plans to build 12 high-speed auto roads that will connect western China with Central Asia. Xinjiang will turn into a large transport and energy hub, which will lead to the strengthening of cooperation of China and Central Asian countries, and strengthen the impact of the Chinese here.

In the long-term effects and the presence of China in the Central Asian region will only increase, and the Celestial Empire, anyway, will push Russia out of the region. If you have previously purchased Ashgabat railway equipment in Russia, then at the moment — in China. In 2000, the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and the countries of Central Asia to 6 times the volume of China's trade with the region, but in 2006 — only half as much. In the end, our homeland as a trade partner may lose enthusiasm for the states of Central Asia.

According to the views of I. Frolova, on this day, the main task of the Russian Federation is to maintain and, if possible, strengthening its positions in Central Asia, but without confrontation with China.

In today's month, China is even more activated on the commodity-production markets of Central Asia. In December, the Celestial Empire has put forward the idea of a large investment in the region. It is a series of car, railway and energy projects that China is ready at this point to provide a loan of 10 billion. $, Which for the first time said in June this year. The projects involve direct communication with the states of Central Asia, Beijing.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, Chinese banks that municipal countries are willing to finance these projects, including railway route from Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan.

This is Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which participated in our homeland and the four Central Asian countries. Wen saw that lusted would accelerate the construction of the railroad from Uzbekistan to China, so Beijing is willing to fund intrigued by.

"We want to invest this money in infrastructure, power and industrial projects, to promote the development of the real sector of the economy" — said Premier Wen Jiabao in Bishkek.

China plans to close cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This over time will create a counterweight to Russian expansion in the region. Still, China and our home and have a total intrigued to strengthen the feeble boundaries of the region — to prevent the movement of terrorists, the Taliban, who should be feared in the ISAF troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

***

So Makar, importing raw materials and exporting manufactured products, China is following a strategy of highly developed countries. If our homeland and the countries of Central Asia, as well as countries in Africa or Latin America, working with China, the Middle Kingdom are
selling oil, gas, iron ore and precious metals, then Beijing in response to consumer goods and supplies sverhtehnologichny products, and successfully competing on price with foreign counterparts. By 2016, according to forecasts professionals OECD, China may become the leading economy in the world, surpassing the United States.

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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