China and North Korea: the cooperation will continue

China and North Korea: the cooperation will continue

The North Korean delegation visited China, the visit was so classified (for North Korea — is the norm) that even the South Korean media has not been able to keep track of all the details. According to one source, the delegation was headed by the leader of the North Korea — Kim Jong Il, on the other, his son — Kim Jong-un, the fall of 2010 he became deputy chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea.

As usual, the North Korean delegation travels by train — he crossed the border on May 19. The main reason for the visit of the unknown, because journalists are building a variety of hypotheses:

— According to one version — a "show" heir DPRK, in the spring of 2010 went reports of illness and even death of the older Kim. According to the views of the State Intelligence Service of South Korea, he is suffering with diabetes and hypertension, in addition, he has kidney disease. There is a perception that favorite Kim Jong Il after suffering a partially paralyzed, in August 2008 heart attack. Because the question of "inheritance" of power is quite acute.

Alignment of Beijing on this issue is very fundamentally, Pyongyang is very friendly, depending on the case of China. China — chief economic partner, military and diplomatic ally, a provider of food aid. In principle, and for Beijing to North Korea is very critical, China has little allies, potential adversaries on the border much more. North Korea is critical, as opposed to South Korea, the stimulus against the Land of the Rising Sun, and of the United States are required to expend resources, "doing" the problem of North Korea, supporting its own allies — Seoul and Tokyo. No need to ignore the DPRK mining industry, it is crucial for the Chinese — the country has a fairly large supplies of non-ferrous and alloy metals (copper, zinc, lead, nickel, molybdenum, tungsten, and others).

— According to the views of the Chinese newspaper "Huanqiu Shibao 'delegation DPRK examines the experience of Chinese economic reform. However, what does that mean, and whether North Korea carried out reforms in the direction of "renewal" is not clear.

— Pyongyang wants to increment the supply of food from China. Of the 24 million people of North Korea, about a quarter of experiencing food shortage. In recent years, the case between Pyongyang and Seoul have softened somewhat, conducted some programs from cooperation, Seoul provided help with food. But after the incident with the sinking of the South Korean corvette (died March 27, 2010), and then on November 22, there was generally the largest armed conflict on the Korean peninsula for half a century — the shelling of a South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in the yellowish sea, Seoul turned a large part of cooperation programs with North Korea. And South Korea — is the main trading partner of North Korea

There are several versions of the circumstances of these incidents, the first — the DPRK so makarom entices the world to their dilemmas, they say, want peace, increase the supply of food and energoelementov. 2nd — provocation by the authorities and the U.S. intelligence and South Korea, who deliberately aggravate the situation on the peninsula. For Washington — this step is entirely logical, Eurasia "set on fire" with the various parties. Ambush "voynushku" on the Korean peninsula, the United States would do "bandwagon" to China, and of the Russian Federation that would be unpleasant.

In principle, the problem of food for Pyongyang is probably the main — it can deprive the North Korean power elite, "hunger is not my aunt," the script is very unsafe hungry riots. And the power of the "commies" is not chief factor — a fully-specific prerequisites. After the Korean War and the division of the peninsula into two countries, North Korea got the main mountainous areas — it has a total area of agricultural land destination is a little over 20% of the total area, and arable land — only 16%. On the 1st inmate DPRK accounts for only 0.12 hectares of arable land, it is about 3-4 times lower than in European countries. Further aggravate the situation of constant natural disasters. United States sharply reduced their food help: They began shipping in 1997 as part of the global food programs from the UN (WFP) to combat hunger, while in 1999, deliveries have gained almost 700,000 tons of grain, then later, the Bush administration started to reduce supplies, in 2001 — 350,000 tons in 2004 — is only 40,000 tons. Because China's role in food aid has increased dramatically.

— Of food safety and the dangers of unrest related to hunger, the problem follows another, the concept for the elite of China and DPRK — Arab unrest. Revolution and unrest in the Arab world, which cause activation of revolutionary sentiment in other regions — the Caucasus, Black Africa, Pakistan, very disturbing Beijing and Pyongyang. China has already taken measures glad — held in the web of restrictive measures, tightened security. Therefore, it is entirely possible that Pyongyang wants to agree on joint measures in the case of "unrest", its diplomatic support of Beijing.

— Maybe it will be, and the strengthening of the defense capacity of the DPRK by Beijing, for example, Pyongyang interested in modernizing their own air defense system, it can be done with the Chinese counterpart of S-300 — HQ-9. Exclusively in mid-May, the United Nations has accused Iran and North Korea in exchange missile technology first ballistic missile technology. In addition, the United States, Israel and the EU announced that North Korea helped Syria build a nuclear reactor that the Israeli Air Force was killed in 2007. It is virtually in charge of spreading nuclear technology, the West it very little. North Korea, along with Iran and Syria, as before in the "black list" of the West. Of course, China is not going to "surrender" ally, this can be done and to strengthen its military power.

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