As you know, the case of our economies are built on Chinese imports priemuschestvenno Russian resources. In the conditions of lowering the growth rate of China's economy will inevitably decline and volumes of raw materials purchased by the Chinese.
According to the Center for Macroeconomic disk imaging research Savings Bank in 2012, when China's economic growth slowing to 6.5% rate of the Russian Federation will be only 1.2% at the basic forecast 3.8%. The situation can only improve retention voltage in the Middle East, through which oil prices are maintained at the highest level is sufficient. It is believed that even in the criteria of a significant deterioration of the economy of the PRC on the oil price will not fall below 80-85 dollars per barrel.
With all this it is estimated that as China accounts for about one fifth of the world's total energy consumption, slowdown its economy by 1% would result in a reduction of oil prices by 20%, and this development is put at risk the economic security of Russia.
The energy market was so susceptible to Chinese influence that oil would have to cost no more than 70 bucks. The highest rates are held only by the precarious situation of Near East. Restoration of peace in the Middle East — an option not clear enough, if not, indescribable, at least in recent times. But if a certain stabilization of the situation in the region is still planned, the cost of oil would be on the level of 70 dollars, and in the criteria of China's economic slowdown to 5%, it may be reduced by the end of 2012 to a level of $ 55 per barrel.
Besides energoelementov Our homeland exports to China metals. In connection with the outlined economic neuvvyazkami, China, and this will inevitably reduce Russian imports. Contact slowdown in its GDP and falling global commodity prices is almost the same as in the case of oil: the quarterly decrease in China's GDP by 1% metal prices Perplexed 20% for three quarters.
Predictions, but what is the real situation with the slowdown in China's economy? — Signs of slowing, unfortunately, there is at the moment: in China has significantly decreased growth industry. But talk about the fact that the Chinese economy firmly entered a phase of deceleration, so far, — changes occur very slowly and evenly. China's GDP has declined over the passing year by about 0.5%, and will reach up to 2011 9,2-9,4%. But even if such an errant derating of economic growth is already associated with neuvvyazkami throughout the world economy, what still awaits us in the case of the scenario in which China's GDP up to 2012 will be less than 8%?
Recall that in the past 2-3 years, China has been the main engine of the global economy. As you know, China was the only country in the world that survived the crisis with virtually no losses. The greatest slowdown China's economy was observed in 2009, while its GDP was 9.2%. But already in 2010 economy China has shown growth by 10.3%, thus we talk about the fact that China has become a lifeguard of the world economy, including Russian as directed on imports.
Working on whole endured several world China and in 2010 there were the first signs of overheating of its economy: inflation has increased, surpassing the June 2011 level of 6%. Inevitably grow and prices. The situation is complicated by the fact that the measures taken by the Chinese authorities to cool down the economy, led to the growth of the shadow economy in the country, the volumes of which are enormous and are estimated to number of different professionals from 25 to 45% of China's GDP.
So, again the world face difficult times. Severe Weather in China look very plausible. We should not forget about Europe and its debt crisis. And about the United States, with its trillion debt and unsecured dollars and not have to read. How to behave in the Russian Federation, not to be completely pulled into a funnel of future global economic collapse?