China is arming, America fears

I. Asian rod

New horrors the U.S. before the Chinese war machine appeared in 2011 — at a time when the government of China announced the planned defense spending.

First, in January 2012, Barack Obama said that the economical cuts in military spending does not affect the country's ability to withstand konkurentnst U.S. strategic adversaries. Quote"Among the strategic enemy of the United States Obama singled out Iran and China. Concerning the last president saw that in the long term, Beijing will have an increasing impact on the economy and the scope of the U.S. military. " But the words Republicans in control of the Parliamentary Committee on Armed Buck McKeon, has criticized Obama's programs from cuts in military spending: "The president must realize that the world has always been, is and will be a favorite. As America steps back, someone else is going to come. " Of course, by the first of the "someone" was supposed to specifically China.

March 4 in the newspaper "Washington Post" appeared article, from which it was possible to understand the main causes of why America is afraid of China — or at least pretends to be afraid of him.

For the Obama administration's geopolitical interests in the Asia-Pacific region from now constitute a "strategic pivot". After all, the new defense spending announced by the first benefit of annual session of China's legislature, will bring China's military budget to 670 billion dollars. yuan, or up to 106 billion dollars. bucks. Increase compared with the prior year at $ 10.6 billion.

China's defense budget in 2011 was $ 91.5 billion., Which is 12.7% more than the budget for 2010 ($ 78 billion)..

Not enough that non-Chinese experts believe that the true defense spending could be higher, especially if you include the amount of other industries, for example, the cost of gallakticheskie applets.

In America, came to the conclusion that China's army is a significant effect not only in the Asia-Pacific region, and in remote areas, right up to the coast of Somalia. America does not like the fact that China produces aaplet on stealth fighter jets J-20, does not like what he has put into service the first own aircraft carrier — though this is a refurbished Russian vessel era of the "Varyag", purchased from Ukraine in 1998

Some, more cowardly, analysts predict that by 2015 China's military spending will exceed those of all of its 12 neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region.

Against the backdrop of a frisky growth of Chinese military power in the "Washington Post" fear of political and military dominance of China in the region. The article said that in the oil-rich South China Sea, China is involved in a dispute over a small chain of islands claimed by other than China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

In Japan, China, too, are in trouble — because of an old dispute over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), aggravated once again in 2010, when the captain of the Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese patrol boat near the 1st of the disputed islands.

Another Chinese argue with the Indians: at their border dispute over Arunachal Pradesh, which refers to the Southern Tibet.

Finally, in response to the growing power of China in the region began to grow in the military sense, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Philippines, as stated in the article, insist on increasing South American presence in the Asia Pacific region.

But the Yankees do not blame China's total hostility. Huge share of war hysteria generate U.S. itself: after all, the growth of tension in the relationship of America and China due including the adoption of January 3, 2012 in Washington, DC strategic document: «Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense». The strategy states that the strengthening of China in the long run can affect the economy and security of the United States. The main points in the received U.S. military strategy is to reduce the number of U.S. military forces in the simultaneous concentration of budget resources for the development of satellites and unmanned aircraft. The strategy also involves refocusing resources on the APR. As reported in the media, Washington is going to place troops in Australia and make additional warships in Singapore and the Philippines.

So, the Obama administration, reducing military spending, does not allow them to reduce the APR on strategic strip. On the contrary, we are talking about the "reorientation" in the Asia-Pacific region.

So, maybe it's China fears of America, and America is not China?

No, the answer to this question Dean Cheng — an expert on security in Asia, the Foundation "Heritage» («Heritage Foundation»), an American analyst of China's armed forces. Dean Cheng mentions about 106 billion. China's military budget bucks here and notes that "most observers believe that the real military China's budget, possibly twice, if not more. " The creator says that the increase in China's military budget in "some circles" is interpreted as a response to the United States in January 2012 on the "rod in Asia." "This way of thinking, — says the creator — emphasizes the truth an old adage in every difficulty there is a solution, a clear, plausible — and wrong."

The reality is such that China's defense spending growing at double-digit rates for more than 2-decades, in fact, to the cool end of the war, shows Cheng. So is there any reason to believe, with some modicum of drama creator says that the increase in this year's Chinese defense spending is purely or even a first response to the actions of the United States?

No, China is arming because: 1) worries about self-defense, including referring to the territorial claims of neighbors and trade routes, and 2) have long been established to be equipped with modern guns, military technology and equipment, and 3) high quality needed reform of the army, 4 ) are great weapons are not cheap.

Everything. The creator believes that America might be necessary to be afraid, do not increase defense spending of China, and how China will use more resources. For example, it may acquire the system that are specifically aimed at the South American ability.

Here it may be fear for America.

By the way, according to «Die Welt», estimated Xue-wu Gu, director of the Center for Global research institute in Bonn, military China's budget does not exceed 2% of the GDP of the country, which incidentally, is two and a redundant times less than in the U.S..

Specialists believe the primary task of the Chinese army reducing technological gap with the leading countries of the world, including the United States, which accounts for two decades.

His most highest growth of military spending today showed, not China, Azerbaijan, said in the note «Die Welt». Quote: "It is noteworthy that the very highest increase in military spending, as calculated by SIPRI (Stockholm Institute international research problems of the world. — Charles O.) showed Azerbaijan — 89 percent for the year. "

But America is still wary of China.

II. Chinese military iceberg

May 23, 2012 in the journal "Foreign Policy" posted an article Trevor Moss' 5 things about Chinese militarization, which says we are not the Pentagon. "

I
n this article, the latest report of the Ministry of Defense of the United States military rise of China is compared to an iceberg: a small tip can be seen, but most sheltered under water. Yes, says the creator of articles in the report, of course, are the answers to many questions about China's militarization, including the attempts to create anti-ship ballistic missile, but, as for many important features of China's strategy, the Pentagon seems to be just "speculating . " Moss leads 5 more fundamental questions about the defense strategy of Beijing, which are "hard" remain unanswered Pentagon.

Question 1. What are the long-term plans China expenditure on defense?

Here are named following numbers: the official Chinese data for 2012: budget of $ 106 billion.; 11 percent increase in costs compared with the previous year and four-fold increase in comparison with the period of ten years ago. But the Pentagon determines the total military spending of China in the middle somewhere between 120 and 180 billion. bucks. Accurately find the PLA military spending the Pentagon is not taken: the Yankees, a calculator, lack of "transparency" of the Chinese defense accounting. A lack it possible, as in the PRC has not completed the transition from a command to a market economy.

In general, the article states the creator, valid and reliable assessment of long-term plans of Beijing's military spending is not.

But judging by the existing trend, China may outstrip the U.S. defense spending between 2020 and 2030.

It is not clear, says Moss, is tied to the budget of the PLA planning to boost the economy in general or generals of China's promising growth in double figures, fulfill their promise — even if the country experienced an economic downturn. One thing is clear: the more money gets the PLA, the faster China will come to achieving parity with America.

Question 2. What is China's nuclear strategy?

According to the views of the Pentagon's "nuclear arsenal of China at the present time consists of about 50-75 bases mines, including the IDB on the watery fuel, road-mobile solid-fuel ICBM." The Pentagon did not try to evaluate the total number of nuclear weapons possessed China, although usually mean that this amount — much less than the U.S. nuclear arsenal, with its more than 5,000 bombs.

Yet, says the creator of articles and discussions about what Beijing has already or plans to make an even bigger nuclear arsenal, not subsiding. "Hypotheses" about the fact that China's 3500 nuclear warheads that were in vogue in the past year, speculations are already recognized, but other comrades so far say Beijing is seeking strategic capabilities for the creation of a nuclear arsenal — some that might fit arsenal United States, or even outshine him in the coming decades.

Now China continues creator, has only two nuclear submarines Jin-class Type 094 ballistic missile (SSBN) in operation. In general, the true extent of SSBN fleet that China plans to build, remain unknown.

Question 3. What is the Chinese navy?

Moss writes that South American analysts often use the term "string of pearls" — to describe the alleged Beijing's strategy to create a network of overseas naval bases, especially in the Indian Ocean. But the Chinese do not, says Moss. A recent report by the Pentagon's general discussions are not, China is planning to do — in the South American style — a network of constant forward bases for the PLA Navy.

Yet, says Moss, there is no end speculation about the fact that China will deploy the armed forces in the port facilities built in Burma, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Yes, that's also the Seychelles invited China to use its ports to supply the Chinese ships. In general, Beijing insists that it is not about the development of overseas bases, the Chinese have only just — "port for resupply." Argue about this for a couple of years, and in Beijing are silent about their own plans to follow.

Pentagon report also tries to shed light on the future by building a program from aircraft carriers in China: "China likely will build multiple aircraft carriers and associated support vessels — over the next decade." This, says Moss, only hypotheses.

Question 4. As developed gallaktichesky potential in China?

China, says Moss, becomes more experienced in space. In the Pentagon report notes that China is gathering its GPS-satellite network, has developed a ground-based anti-satellite missile. But for some reason the Pentagon does not mention the most fundamental project of China in space: the development of the aircraft gallakticheskogo «Shenlong» and the development of related systems of engines, the existence of which greatly increases the risk of gallakticheskih arms race with the United States.

Again the same, notes the creator, it is not clear whether the experience is not all that «Shenlong».

Question 5. Cardboard tiger or dragon?

There are many other unpredictable in China's military continues to Moss. For instance, Chinese cyber espionage was effective in obtaining foreign military secrets. Again, not clear how much of the stolen know-how and successfully implemented with the utility in its military program from China and its doctrine.

All of the "X's" are reduced to one bolshennomu question: how many is all this advertising PLA?

After all, China's army has long not been tested in: China did not participate in any large-scale war with in 1979 (Vietnam). Will it declared newcomer efficiency — or corruption and inexperience critically undermine fighting ability of China? Why is modernized PLA Army XXI century — for defensive use, or to maintain the Communist Party, as Beijing seems counting on the fact that large-scale war becomes the least possible? The Pentagon does not have an answer.

Not responding to their questions and Trevor Moss.

As for Washington's fears that such a summary is imposed here: America fears China because they do not know what dangers may be China. The most terrible enemy — the enemy unknown.

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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