If against Russia in general will ever be accomplished large-scale military anger at the "classical" form, with a probability of 95% (not 99.99%), China will be the aggressor.
The tremendous overcrowding in the totality of this country with rapid economic growth make the most complicated set of problems for a very concise description, which requires a large separate article. The connection of these problems is such that the solution of one affects the other. China impartially viable in today's own borders. It must be even greater if not willing to be even smaller. He can not do without the outer expansion to capture resources and territories, such a reality. It can turn a blind eye, but it is from this is not going anywhere. In addition, do not need to write that the main focus will be the expansion of China's South-East Asia. There's plenty of terrain and not enough resources for all that very many of the local population. The reverse situation — very many areas, huge resources, it is not a lot of people — there is in Kazakhstan and the Asian part of Russia. And specifically, here goes the expansion of China. All the more so that the trans-Ural area of Russia in China is considered to be his own. Short description of the respective Chinese historical concepts can dedicate another great article. Consider that the problem of the border between Russia and China has been settled, a person can only, not representing for themselves what is China and the Chinese.
■ In the neighborhood of these are four of the nine armored and mechanized 6 of 9 divisions, six of the 12 tank brigades Army PLA.
■ Two armored divisions and one armored brigade are part of the Lanzhou Military Area (covers the western part of the country, aims to Central Asia, Mongolia and Siberia to the west of Lake Baikal), and one armored, one mechanized divisions, two armored and only in the PLA mechanized brigade — in the Tszinnanskogo VO. The latter is in the center of the country and is a strategic reserve for the Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou and Nanjing districts.
But there are neither the U.S. nor the RF (Which we declined), medium-range ballistic missile acts DF-21C. In relation to the Russian Federation, these missiles are strategic, with areas of China they are able to actually get to all the important sites relevant Russian
Naturally, China's peaceful preferred form of expansion (financial and demographic). But not ruled out military. It is significant that in recent years the Chinese army is conducting exercises that are simply not treated differently, as a preparation for aggression against the Russian Federation, with the scale of the exercise (spatial scale and the number of troops) constantly grows.
With all of this seems so far we do not pay for themselves report that has long been lost not only quantitative, and high-quality an advantage over China in military equipment. In Russian, we have this and that is, as shown by "microwave" for Damascus, offsetting an advantage of China's tremendous manpower.
120-mm self-propelled howitzer, PLL-05. The main solution of ¬ copied from Russian 120 mm installation "Nona-S"
Carl Clara stole corals
China very long-lived that gave him the Soviet Union in the 1950s — early 1960s. But after a thaw in relations with the West, he gained access to certain specimens of American and European art, and since the late 1980's began to receive the latest technology in the Soviet Union and then in Russia, thanks to this for many types of "jumping" a generation. In addition, China has always had an exceptional ability to steal technology. In the 1980s, Chinese intelligence could not even get in the drawings of the new U.S. warhead W-88 ballistic missiles from Trident-2 submarine. And everyday appliances in China steals sets.
For example, nothing is clear that our home sold PRC multiple launch rocket systems SRSZO) "Tornado", or even more so a license for their establishment. Yet at first in China's army appeared MLRS A-100, very similar to the "Twister" and later PHL-03-its a complete copy. Self-propelled artillery installation Tour 88 (PLZ-05) is very reminiscent our "Meta" we in China again did not sell. We have never sold China the license to create anti-aircraft missile system S-300, which does not prevent the Chinese copy it under the title of HQ-9. In general, and the French, for example, which is stolen by anti-aircraft missile system "Crotal" anti-ship missile "Exocet" naval gun M68, etc.
Zabugornye synthesizing technology and adding something of their own, the Chinese defense industry is beginning to create quite original samples: anti-aircraft missile and gun system Toure 95 (PGZ-0 <4, PLL-05 self-propelled guns and PTL-02, BMP ZBD-05, etc.)
Anti-ship missile YJ-62A with a range of 280 km — a scarecrow for the U.S. Pacific Fleet
Manufactured in China
In general, as has been said, in fact for all classes of conventional weapons an advantage of high-quality RF remained in the past.
In some ways China is even ahead of us — for example, UAVs, and small arms. The Chinese are uniformly change "Kalashnikovs" on the new automatic rifle made under the "Bullpup" on the same basis as the AK and western rifles CFA MAS, L85).
Moreover, although some experts believe that China is in the process according to the Russian Federation as head of his own arms supplier (as it should, poruha to us can not), this is pure myth.
China has gained in Russia only such weapons, which was intended for operations against Taiwan and the United States (as long as Beijing is seriously planning an operation to capture the island). Of course, the naval war between China and Russia is virtually impossible, it is not necessary neither one nor the other. The war will be of terrestrial nature.
In this connectio
n it should be noted that the PRC did not purchase any equipment in Russia for its own ground forces, as against Russia in case of war would apply it specifically.
Even in the field of Air China got rid of the dependence on Russia. He bought in Russia a limited number of Su-27, only 76 units, of which 40 — Su-27UB. From such a unique correlation of combat and combat-training machines at all saying that the Russian Su-27 production were purchased for training flight crews. Then, as you know, China has refused to license production of the Su-27 Russian devices, building only 105 of the planned 200 aircraft. Immediately he copied this fighter and began his unlicensed establishment under the name J-W with its engines, weapons and avionics. Thus, if in 1960 China copying Russian models was their deliberate primitivization, the J-11B, prima facie, in fact nothing more terrible than the Su-27.
Intercontinental ballistic RAKETA DF-31A. According to the CIA, is able to kill the first hit-move an aircraft carrier at a distance of 12,000 km. Neither Russian rocket is not capable of
It may be noted that as soon as the military-technical cooperation between China and Russia is minimized. In part this can be explained in that the fast degrading Russian military-industrial complex is no longer able to offer China are the weapons and equipment it needs. Another explanation is that Beijing is seriously considering the possibility in the foreseeable future combat operations against the Armed Forces.
Since the J-11B in their tactical and technical features approximately equal to the Su-27, and made on the basis of the Israeli "Lavi", but with the introduction of Russian technology and its own J-10 is fully comparable with the MiG-29, no high-quality advantages in the air we no. A quantitative advance will be an advantage on the side of China, in particular taking into account the practical
complete destruction of the Russian air defense system (initially just in the Far East). Su-30, it will be overwhelming in general: China has blocked more than 120, we have — A. The main shortcoming of Chinese aviation — the absence of the usual attack aircraft and attack helicopters, but it is for them more failures will not, because the land situation is even worse for Russia .
Anti-missile system HQ-7B — nelitseneionnaya copy of the French SAM "Crotal"
The best Chinese tanks — Toure Toure 96 and 99 (also known as Type 98C) — in fact no worse than the best of our tanks — the T-72B, T-80, T-90. In fact, they are "close relatives", and therefore their performance characteristics are very similar. With all of this control the Defense Ministry has announced the virtual elimination of our armored forces. Tanks for the whole Russia should remain in 2000. China has modern tanks have at the moment about the same. There are even more numerous Dream (least 6000) of old tanks Sot (Toure Toure 59 to 80) made on the basis of the T-54. They are completely effective against infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and for the creation of the "mass effect". It is entirely possible that these machines are specifically PLA command uses a first strike. They are all equal pay us any loss, and most importantly — to distract yourself our antitank weapons thereafter exhausted and weakened defense followed blow with the introduction of modern technology already. By the way, in the air similar to "mass effect" can make an old type of fighter J-7 and J-8.
FLOATING BMP ZBD-05, developed for the Marine Corps — pain in the head of Taiwan
In other words, according to modern specimens of weapons in the Russian Armed Forces and the Chinese army at the moment approximately equal (quality and quantity), which confidently (and not so slowly) is converted to the advantage of China's army. With all of this latter has a large "overhang" of old, but still completely "good" samples, which are ideal as a "consumable" materials for hassling defense Russian troops. Because of the presence of China's unique challenges such as "lack of brides", the loss of hundreds of thousands of young people for the Chinese male control is not something that is no discrepancy, but good. And certainly not the problem of "recycling" in the battle several thousand units of obsolete armored vehicles.
Already at this time only two of the seven military districts Chinese army — Beijing and Shenyang, near the border with Russia — stronger than all the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (Kaliningrad to Kamchatka). And on a possible theater of operations (Trans-Baikal and Far East) forces of the parties are simply incomparable, China surpasses us even at times, and in the 10's again. With all this movement of troops from the West in the event of a real war would be virtually impossible, since the Chinese saboteurs guaranteed to cut the Trans-Siberian descent into a huge number of places throughout its duration, and other communications with the East we do not have (in the air as you can transport people, but not languid technique).
The Chinese Type 98 Main Battle Tank
Tanks are not our frisky
With all this and combat training, especially in the units filled with more modern technology, the Army of China have long been surpassed. Thus, in the 38th Army of the Beijing Military Area artillery completely automated, it is still inferior to the accuracy of the U.S., but it has overshadowed the Russian. Tempo coming 38th Army is seeking 1,000 km a week (150 miles a day).
Accordingly, in the ordinary war, we have no chance. Unfortunately, does not guarantee salvation and the nuclear weapon, since it too is China. Yes, as long as we have an advantage in strategic nuclear forces, but they are rapidly declining. With all this we have no medium-range ballistic missiles, and from China, they just have that practically eliminates lag in their intercontinental ballistic missiles (which can also be compromised.)
Ratio on tactical nuclear weapons is not clear, but we must realize that we h
ave to use it in their areas. As for the exchange of blows strategic nuclear forces, the Chinese building more than enough to kill the main campus of European Russia, which they do not need (there are a lot of people and not a lot of resources). There is a very strong suspicion that this understanding. The Kremlin on the use of nuclear weapons will not do. Because nuclear deterrence against China — such as a myth, as well as its technological dependence on us.