China will not bail out the world economy

China will not save the world economySoon the world will see a rather unique view of the fact that China — the only country that is able to take on himself the whole world economy. After the outbreak of the global crisis to praise China has become very stylish. China became almost a model of economic stability. Some politicians even the rumor of a probable adaptation of the Chinese model of economic development for their own states. The thought of China's economic messianism almost in the air. Despite the fact that the Chinese economic magic — is, of course, an accomplished fact, an exceptional role China in the future salvation of the world economy may be subjected to serious doubt.

In-1's, help China the global economy is likely only in this case it will be most profitable to China. In China it is no different from other states, giving priority to its national interests.

In-2, in the future, China is waiting for the slowdown in economic growth. The government of China has acknowledged that in 2012 the growth of the Chinese economy can make the least 9%, which would mean a record fall. With all this, the world's economists believe that a small percentage of the growth of the Chinese economy, the right to cast a sufficient number of jobs is 8 percent. This figure may be even higher, especially given the fact that China's urban population grows rapidly. So Makar, slowing growth of the Chinese economy has already approached the critical line.

With such a fall in the rate of development of its economy, China will start direct spending on underfunded areas, which is the construction of affordable housing, agricultural development and support of small and medium-sized businesses.

B-3, Beijing is unlikely to agree to a substantial strengthening of its own national currency. Stronger yuan — a long-standing dream of the Yankees — will not have very long. Moreover, the views of many analysts, the planned growth rate of the Chinese currency may have recently replaced its fall. The fact is that Beijing would not go against the will of their own exporters, playing a central role in the development of jobs in the country.

Fourth, China's strong shadow financial system, which is a tremendous, absolutely unregulated place. In this regard Chinese economy even less predictable than the same South American.

And another reason in favor of the ability of the Chinese economy is very exaggerated, is that the Chinese authorities have little idea of what exactly to spend the available funds in the country. Beijing calls on banks to finance infrastructure gosproekty: to give loans for the construction of roads and airports. With all this credit, issued by the local authorities for the implementation of such projects are increasingly not vorachivayutsya. This means that economic growth China slowed, first, at the level of provincial bureaucrats, inefficient spending the allocated funds. The debts of local governments to make up one third of total annual industrial production. According to Chinese professionals, about a quarter of this amount will not be returned.

If it turns out that in order to save the local bureaucrats pocket Beijing would not be so profound, that prepyadstviya rest of the world will have to wait. Representations of global professionals confirmed the expression of prominent economic figures for China itself. Ksanrong Yi, a member of the Chinese Academy of social sciences: "This time, China will play a different role. We are experiencing a serious impact on what we have done for the world economy before. Currently China is able to make only small effort. "

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