Karabakh: the fragile peace on a powder keg

September 2 marked the 20th anniversary of day or education of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Now there flows a peaceful life, but the risk of war is enormous. Armenians consider living here own this land, Azerbaijan also makes this area their rights. Available points of view on the situation laid out with "Pravda.Ru" a variety of specialists.

Armenian expert explained the vision of the situation to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh delegation to the OSCE Minsk Group, the journalist Arsen Melik-Shakhnazarov:

"Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh, as referred edge in Armenian, after the collapse in 1918 of the Russian Empire was the target of the territorial claims of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR), made in the course of Turkish-German aggression in the Caucasus in May 1918. Prior to that time the world knew only one of Azerbaijan — the Persian province in the north of the country. And if the pre-revolutionary Russian citizen someone said that Azerbaijan is located in the Russian Caucasus, he simply would consider its own counterpart survivor of the brain.

In clashes of 1918-1920 died every fifth inhabitant of the region, in March 1920 wiped out the capital of the region — largely Armenian city of Shusha, the last before the third most populous city in the Caucasus after Tbilisi and Baku.

After the Sovietization of Transcaucasia Russian Bolsheviks supported the idea of the new-born republic in the region, with prospects for a "real" Iranian Azerbaijan and the subsequent hegemony of the world revolution against states of the East: first, Persia and Turkey. That "cut" the apt remark by Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Nagorno-Karabakh is the latest Russian republic of Azerbaijan.

Favorites of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic set about systematically to oust the Armenian majority of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the course were the most subtle ways: changing the borders to reincarnation short of the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh (CASS) in the enclave, mass repression and exile, scary (up to a third of the population!) Mobilization to the front during the war and the Russian majestically on the "priority project" in peacetime.

Along with that did not stop a massive ideological influence, including the closure of any and all Christian churches, anti-Tipo "Armenian nationalism", bans on trade for the intelligentsia and its expulsion of the limits of the republic. In the end, the Armenian population of the Autonomous Region from 1923 to 1979 year decreased from 150 to 123 thousand. On the contrary, the Azeri (Turkish-Kurdish), increased over the same period in almost 5 times!

In February 1988, the Regional Council of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (Nagorny Karabakh) filed a petition to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR and the Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan and the Armenian SSR for discern and to consider favorably the transfer of Nagorny Karabakh from Azerbaijan SSR in the Armenian SSR. The Kremlin is also accused of Deputies, and in fact all of the Karabakh Armenians of "extremism" and "nationalism."

Just behind the decision of the session of the Regional Council the massacre of Armenians in the Azerbaijani town of Sumgait. Local police condone rioters, internal troops followed the massacres and pogroms, without taking any action. 10's of people have been killed with particular ruthlessness, including burned, dismembered, hundreds injured, thousands of refugees. By the summer of 1991 in Karabakh were already hard at ethnic cleaning that took place under the guise of emergency.

After the August 1991 coup, it became clear that the Russian alliance survives the last few months. August 30 The Supreme Council of Azerbaijan appointed to one-sided manner the restoration of independence of Azerbaijan Democratic Republic of 1918-1920, whose rejection of the League of Nations was precisely justified unresolved territorial disputes with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, Zangezur and Nakhichevan.

Upland Karabakh declared its independence from the former Azerbaijani SSR in full accordance with the legislation of the USSR. September 2, 1991 Joint Session of the Regional Council of Deputies NKAR District Council announced Shahumyan region of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). A December 10, 1991 held a referendum in which an overwhelming majority of the population voted in favor of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

It came out before the formal dissolution of the USSR, on the basis of Article 3 of the Law of the USSR "On the procedure for solving problems related to the secession of the republic of the USSR" on April 10, 1990. She said: "In the Soviet Republic has in its own autonomous republics, autonomous regions and the neighborhood, the referendum is conducted separately for each of autonomy. During the peoples of the autonomous republics and autonomous formations have the right to independently decide whether to remain in the USSR or in the seceding republic . "

But soon, Azerbaijan launched against the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh war, which with varying success lasted until the beginning of May 1994. During the war, losing part of its own territory, the Nagorno-Karabakh republic at the same time established control over significant areas of upland and lowland Karabakh beyond the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh. For the past 17 years the band kept the contact situation "neither peace nor war" lasts trench confrontation: Sniper war, sally saboteurs. Official Baku times a day threatening war, but these risks remain only words.

In the very same NKR is not a lot that reminds of past war. Build new hydroelectric and mining enterprises, build good roads, new schools and kindergartens, homes. The capital city of Stepanakert region, according to the unanimous recognition visited edge zabugornyh Russians and tourists, and quite reminiscent resort town somewhere in the quiet southern Europe.

Summing up the results of 20 years of independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, it can be said that the people had the opportunity to edge build their lives and the criteria for statehood in the world, firmly secure the power of guns and unshakable will to do Karabakh modern country on the old land Protz. "

Alignment of the Azerbaijani professional Mamethana Akhmedov, representing television InterAz, diametrically back. It was a brief, but his vision of the situation Azerbaijan fully reflect the words:

"Independent Azerbaijan for 20 years has made a big way. Perceptibly improved and brought up-to-date level of authority of the country in the international arena. But the main problem of the same, hindering its development, is the problem of the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh. As you know, to this day remain occupied more than 20 per cent of Azerbaijan area, where a horror of physical execution expelled hundreds of thousands of refugees.

This is no exaggeration. Suffice it to recall the massacre by Armenians in Khojaly. (This refers to the assault populated by Armenians in the Azerbaijani town of Khojaly main in February 1992, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of people. — Ed.) In this case the Armenians do not even want to read about it, but do not stop to remember the action in 1915 in the Ottoman Empire. (Then the Turks in the massacre destroyed and 1.5 million Armenians, although the Turkish side considers this figure too high. — Ed.)

In this regard, it is striking that four resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh adopted authoritative, it would seem, an international organization of the United Nations, have not been fulfilled. They truly said that the region is a part of Azerbaijan. And in the face of the co-chairs of the Russian Federation, the United States and France, virtually nothing is being done to for
ce Armenia to meet them. In practice, we're looking at double standards approach to the dilemma. "

The current situation around Karabakh Comment out with "Pravda.Ru" and Russian experts.

Andrei Areshev, a political scientist, researcher at the Institute of Political and Social research the Black Sea-Caspian region:

"Obviously, international recognition is the only effective method of ensuring security in the regions where there is conflict, and this is often and rightly reminded in Stepanakert. But the status of a recognized country and a member of the UN does not rescued by bombing and other forms of external intervention — all we can follow the example of Serbia, Iraq, Egypt and now look at the example of Libya and Syria.

Analyzing the dynamics of the ongoing processes in international politics, it can be a disappointing conclusion: the recognition process and the upcoming international legitimation of new countries than on, the greater becomes hostage to the interests of large regional and global players and multinational companies that often exceed (including those on military capabilities) other formally sovereign states.

It turns out that there is a stable state, effective control over the territory, the presence of the real sector of production (not related to drug trafficking, smuggling and other obscure classes) are also attributes that allow to recognize a self-identifying terrain full member of the "world community of nations," is not welcome! Incidents of Kosovo and South Sudan testify about working faster.

According to the NKR President Bako Sahakyan, "the cornerstone of the philosophy of the municipal building of our country is a conscious choice in favor of a democratic country and the creation of a civilian society." It also appears that Artsakh initially chose a path not directed at the international geopolitical and ideological conjuncture, and on the historical, cultural, civilizational and political traditions of the people. Obviously, this way is very difficult and fraught with threats, but, looking back at the past 20 years, necessarily convinced of its inevitability.

Only a government that demonstrates the desire for self-development aimed at domestic and foreign policy, it is ultimately the subject, not the object of international relations. And at some point it will be recognized — if not de jure, by the latter as the de-facto standard. Specifically, we look at it in the last few months — so called "non-recognition", I think, entirely conventional. "

Alexander Krylov, a leading researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS, Doctor of Historical Sciences:

"We were quite deaf villages and beheld the real lives of people. Mood of society can be realized from these trips, not communicating with the professionals, with the authorities, even more so, in vebu and certain data, deflated from there. We also took a trip to the forefront, looked at the situation and visited military units.

I wish to note that there is not one Russian practice when before the arrival of any guests and heads begin to paint the leaves and grass greenish color. Then show the real picture, that is. And this shows the confidence in their own abilities. In Karabakh build Potemkin Village are not going to the authorities and have something to show. They feel confident in their own abilities and the support of society.

In the newest rage in Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, now no one is interested, including Aliyev himself. Naturally, this can be propaganda, this may be a means of political pressure on the Armenian side, this may be the reason for the illusion of Azerbaijan, according to which Armenia can suddenly terrified and something to give, but less so. So how seriously to wage war Ilham Aliyev will not, under any circumstances.

The consequences of the newest rage against Karabakh to Azerbaijan will be of a tragic character, because even the South American administration has not once stated that in the case of the Azerbaijani threats immediately subjected to review the issue of recognizing the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. I think that Moscow is also completely can likewise react by putting the issue of Nagorno Karabakh. For Azerbaijan, as it will be a complete disaster, and that's why at first Aliyev and do not make war over Nagorno-Karabakh. "

Like this post? Please share to your friends: