About China — its economy, politics, society, development, technology, weapons, army and — in the near future, and they say they write very many. Someone, for example, states that China is stepping up weapons and improving the technological content of its own army, transformed into a global anti-American, and someone says a report in her hands, as if the Chinese economy is about to zavyaznet in the quagmire of financial crisis , almost old days, years that way in thirty or forty, followed by China on most domes plunge into the swamp and grown old mother Europe, decrepit and the United States — the same as that from time to time frighten the world of Chinese military threat, constructed from aircraft J- 20 and a converted Russian "Varyag".
Is haunted by the international community China! That's Robert B. Zoellick — President of Global bank — by day or with concern expressed frisky growth of China's economy (and not just about growth, but about this, that in the next few years, the Chinese economy will double), but here also added that, say, the rise growth, but the economic model-that the Chinese unstable. Certainly, the financier wanted to say "Hi zabereshsya — will fall sick!" In general, as you know, until it was painful to drop those in such advisers — such as the World Bank, the IMF and other well-known company — listened.
Nedavneshnie Zoellick's speech on China's economy reached a "turning point", also on the "unstable" economic model of China repeated the creators of many political and economic news. But it seems to me, the person speaking on the growth of the Chinese economy frisky here and say not on an unstable model is quite difficult to realize. Zoellick argues that in the coming years, China's economy will grow by 2 times and here tells you the "turn" in the Chinese economy. Here are the numbers issued by Zoellick: in the coming couple of years economy Middle Kingdom will grow by about 8% a year, and later, for 20 years — 6.6% per year. And in general, the growth of the Chinese economy in the coming years will decrease by half. In other words, will grow, but twice as slow.
Economic growth doubled in two years — quite well, even if the growth rate is twice reduced. God is with them, with the rates would have been in our time of crisis growth! .. Judge: "… for 20 years — 6.6% per year"! And with all this, the creator of such an optimistic forecast — Zoellick — seriously argues as if China has to spend … "profound economic reforms." It must be the head of the World Bank is afraid that he does not have time to destroy the Chinese economy before resign — and plans to throw a banker case, according to his own statement, 30 June 2012.
To realize the "deep reforms" China, of course, should apply a common western recipe: reduce the role of the country and make quite a market economy. Main Board of the Global Bank are summarized in the report "China 2030: Building a modern, harmonious and creative society with the highest incomes." Objective we need to see that the report of the creativity and high incomes, presented to the press on the 27th February 2012, was prepared by the Global Bank in collaboration with the Government of China.
At the meeting in Beijing press conference, Zoellick said that "the pattern of growth of the country, which was itself successful in the past 30 years, asks configurations — in order to withstand the new challenges." President of the World Bank believes in the fact that the financial model of China, which for 10 years has considerably increased the role of the country, is already beginning to lose stability. Zoellick warns, should immediately initiate reforms to the maintenance will be the biggest growth over the next 20 years.
It is clear that the Chinese — people are smart and dedicated. They agree with a grin interlocutors, nod — but make their own way.
Here is the report of the World Bank and co-author, Liu Shijing, vice president of the Center for Research and Development of the State Council of China, has agreed with Robert Zoellick, saying that yes, no reform of the yearly growth China's GDP will slow down to 5 or 6% in 2030 — from 10% in the last 30 years.
Until Zoellick scare crisis and the future of China famous International Monetary Fund. On the positive scenario, the IMF, in 2012 China will add "weight" of 8.2% of GDP, in bad things — just 4%. To prevent such strshnogo Chinese crisis, invented in the offices of the IMF, the Fund's experts have advised China to quickly convert municipal enterprises into private ownership, that is, if someone does not realize privatized. (We Russians know very well that all the same it is).
In November 2011, the industrial establishment in China for the first time in the last three years has decreased (index PMI — the level of industrial activity — fell to 49.0%, a low level of three years ago, a mark of 50% means stagnation, and below 50% — increase in activity). Analysts explain this well-known reasons: the debt crisis in Europe, reducing demand for products from China (IMF predicts China just drop in GDP growth due to the Eurozone crisis), and decline in domestic consumption due to tighter domestic monetary policy. In addition, 128 million. in China living below the poverty line: these people with all their desire simply can not provide the highest level of demand, and the more its growth.
In general, none of the Western professionals and analysts — incidentally giving advice fortunate to China by a crisis in the U.S. and a recession in Europe — does not find that in China there are prerequisites for the start of some terrible collapse of the money that goes around comes around the world . For what the creators of the report so aggressively recommend the Chinese to "structural reform" (oh, that's sad-known expression!) And privatize municipal companies, simultaneously transforming industry, agriculture, and strengthening the financial sector and the commercial sector, weakening municipal? What is curious, China, one of the leading innovators of the planet, the speakers advised to increase innovation …?
The good, as we know, not looking good. In other words, should be reformed when the bad, and not when the fine. "Titanic" also wanted to swim faster … because not so much afraid of advice global financiers, as hypnotism scares advisers. No, I am far from thinking, as though seasoned Western specialists prick Chinese, forcing them some furtive its strategy, as the Chinese economy drags along the bottom and the world, and advisers can not be unaware of this. But it seems to me that these economists are not so many Chinese people hypnotized much of themselves.
II. In front of the whole planet
That's the premise on which the economy of the PRC for the last 30 years has pulled ahead — so that economists have long been rumors about the Chinese economic miracle:
1) The last couple of years, the Chinese government supports municipal enterprises in those sectors
that are registered in China important to the implementation of the strategy of economic security, the main purpose of which — leadership in the global competition.
2) The World economic crisis in 2009 for the first time in many years has reduced the demand for Chinese exports, but China in a few months, got rid of the crisis. GDP growth of 10 percent a year — not evidence of whether the economic strength? The reason for such rise during the global recession is to stimulate municipal politics. A powerful role in the economy of the country is allowed to escape to China, which is the direct impact of the global financial crisis: China's economy has grown throughout the years, without exception. China's GDP has increased more than 10 times from 1978 to 2010. In 2010, China became the second naikrupneyshey economy in the world, behind only the United States itself! China's economy is almost on the heels of the U.S. economy, and by 2020 (according to plans) on total return on the heels of U.S. GDP has come. Oh, what there is "unstable model"!
3) China's Twelfth Five-Year Plan includes a paragraph about the need to increase domestic consumption — and it says that the Chinese are not only did not want to have a clean eksportozavisimuyu economy, and year after year, are planning to seek the release of such dependence. That, by the way, may not like the Chinese neighbors in the global economy. With all of this, for the sake of objectivity, to see: the past two years — from 2010 — China is considered to be the most formidable in the world's exporters.
(By the way: the report "China 2030" is said as if the Chinese state bureaucracy run by inefficient state enterprises …! Such a statement and not asking for comments.)
So, the three pillars of the Chinese economy: state-owned enterprises, gosstimulirovanie, gosplanirovanie. Hence — "no" to the crisis and stepping on the heels of the United States.
Which allows to reach the state planning in China? A lot. In-1's, China has become a nuclear power and gallakticheskoy. In-2, that neither of the voice of the foreign capital in China, and he — not entirely foreign: 4/5 zabugornyh investment — it means either the principal assets acquired from Huaqiao, ie ethnic Chinese living abroad. Everything is controlled, and simultaneously stimulated also by the state. B-3, the government in China encourages the import of advanced technologies in the same progressive areas: biotechnology, software, telecommunications, medicine, etc. Fourth, China and developing their own education, and with it the practice of teaching students abroad to example, in the Land of the Rising Sun or the United States.
China's GDP in 2009, 5.0 trillion. dollars, in 2010 — 6.3 trillion. dollars, in 2011 — 7.5 trillion. In the U.S. last year, the Chinese government spent 136 billion on research and development. dollars, or 21.9% more than in 2010 share of these expenditures in GDP of 1.83%. Not enough that China plans by 2020 to increase R & D spending to 2.5% of GDP. On the resources of the country to the true time of 100 built 30 research centers, municipal engineering values and almost as many engineering labs.
With all of this in the past year, China produced 5,000,000 Institutes of professionals in various fields. The total number of students in China exceeds the number of students in the European Union or the United States. The number of states not about the poor quality of Chinese higher education. On the contrary, to do, for example, the Institute of Tsinghua University — the best university in China — much more difficult than in the prestigious Harvard.
Consequently, the large economic benefits China have gained through meaningful role in the economy of the country. And even though the pace of growth may slow down now — the economy, too, need to rest, so as not to overheat, as often happens in America — but let the experts from the World Bank and other fans of the liberal economic theories intelligibly explain to everyone, including the Chinese, why from what has brought success, you turn away? And how is the demotion of the country suddenly started to contribute to the economic acceleration of China? Indeed, in China 128 million people (the poorest farmers) lives very poor: for a buck a day, and many live on the 2 or 3 bucks a day. Remove the government — the 1st of the big consumers — from the economy is killing the economy. So where is the explanation for this? But it seems that liberal theorists explanations do not strain yourself. I believe, for absurdly, as Tertullian once wrote.
At the Chinese economy may be difficulties associated with slowing growth — due to the strong dependence of the world economy, rising energy prices, the availability of a huge number of poor people with low levels of use, and environmental violations — but it is unlikely to wish to China add artificial tasks initiated by Western advisers. Much less that the circumstances to follow the advice of international financial organizations simply do not have.
I repeat: let well seek out. So why then is all the fuss about "reforms"? And here's what! Advisers giving the same advice to China for the past three years, the 10-ka (so long they have to give advice as China smiles and nods, but does not listen to advisors), blab. The report of the World Bank, besides other areas of change — market, Innovative, ecological, social and tax — say, in the end, the upcoming increase in the role of China in the world economy — through trade, investment, and even the yuan trade freely. And here is where everything falls into place. In the West, all just scared … no, not the fact that China's economy will be covered with a copper basin. A fear that China, with its developed state sector, but with a strong bias towards global markets indeed partly reoriented on internal development — at least in order to remove the distortions, to weaken the existing "eksportoprivyazannost." Following this scenario will allow China to reduce dependence on the world market, including the stock, and at the same time serve if not directly, then indirectly prerequisite deepening crisis in the U.S. and Europe. The Western advisers wish, perhaps one shot kill 2-birds with one stone so arranged that China's economy is highly dependent on external markets and would not have passed in the locomotive of the world economy. In other words, would have remained there, where there is — and that's when her economic situation would have been a truly "sustainable." A posodeystvuyut throw it out there recommended "structural reform": on deregulation, privatization, and the revision of the country's role in the economy, monetary liberalization — and other activities based on the articles of faith WB.
That is why, even Chinese and agreed to co-author with something from the Global Bank, but, nevertheless, on the main theses of the report and the Global Bank of Beijing in practice hardly converge. It can not be that economically successful China — unlike the crisis of the Russian Federation Yeltsin era — went on about the professionals offering clean specifically in the Chinese economy that contributed to its prosperity. Chinese cute smile global bankers, but to privatize the municipal companies will not.
No wonder Vice President Xi Jinping's not so long ago, for a few days before the submission of the press report, "China 2030", said: "China's economy will continue a measured rise of so-called" hard landing "will not." Xi Jinping was confirmed that Beijing will continue to directly provoke and domestic consumption and investments abroad.
And the West has to keep in mind: in case of a crisis the Chinese economy, which inevitably breaks out, if only bow to Beijing
the Almighty to the Global Bank, he said, the West will lose its own main trading partner. So much for Europe. Wha
t's all the same for the U.S., because China — Holds the main U.S. treasury bonds. To damage the largest bond South American pyramid, China needs only to throw out those securities to the market. At once. And then what will happen to America? .. Is it true you think this thing will be. Depreciate America.
III. And counselors who?
So, Western analysts observing firsthand how developing and growing Chinese economy is predicted to her slowdown or even recession, and even unusual crisis. Such is the weird habits of most Western analysts, who firmly believe in recipes Global Bank, World Bank, IMF and other economic "re-enactors" and the initiators of the "policy reform", the collapse of credit, the program and the advice of many developing economies.
Why should they, who know the real value of their advice, give advice to China? Would have turned around on Greece, mired in debt decline. (Not to mention the sad past of Argentina or of, whose "shining" examples of Western economists, financiers, supporters of full liberalization and monetarism without glory perished, decorated with Nobel laurels, it seems, had forgotten). So that's — do not recommend them to China. After all, like it or not, but from the PRC's economy dependent on both Europe and the United States. And if that will cause a collapse of the world economy, is the realization of China's western tips that reveal the world's good intentions on the subject of "how we could improve China".
But, fortunately, the Chinese are going their own way, and not unsafe road advisors sitting in the gilded offices in tyschah km from Beijing. We wish the success of the Middle Kingdom!