The earthquake in Haiti is the beginning of the end of civilization?

21.01.2010

It's no secret that the earthquake in Haiti — one of the four strongest in the last 100 years. But in itself it is — part of the global increase of seismic activity on the planet. So the researchers of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences.


"There is a global nature of seismic activity — says chief researcher at the Institute Vladimir Kosobokov. — It started about 10 years ago. And one of its manifestations was the Sumatra-Andaman megazemletryasenie in the Indian Ocean December 26, 2004, which then caused the catastrophic tsunami wave- . " However, as recognized scientist reasons for the increasing seismic activity are not yet clear.

IIEPT RAS is known that there has developed a model predicting catastrophic events in the Earth's lithosphere. In order to make such predictions of earthquakes, the researchers monitored their precursors, in particular, the stresses in the Earth's crust. Initially, it is a medium-term forecasts, ie approximately the next five years. "Seismic flow in each area monitored by the seven functionals — the head IIEPT, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Soloviev. — If over a period of functionals show abnormally high values, we declare the alarm for five years ", reports inauka.ru.

Over the past few years came true 13 out of 18 of predictions, and 10 earthquakes occurred in areas identified with almost kilometer accuracy. "Of course, to predict the risk of up to an hour of the day or completely unrealistic, but significantly reduce the uncertainty in space and time can practice it shows" — says Soloviev.

As for Haiti, the forecasts in this area institution is not engaged. "We are testing wherever possible — explained Vladimir Kosobokov. — That is where you can get information using instrumental observations. Based on it, and the algorithm is composed of forecast". Meanwhile, in the past only that the earthquake has only one weak station in the Dominican Republic. These data are obviously insufficient.

However, the situation in Russia with seismic observations are not bright. "We would now have at least the same level of monitoring that existed before the collapse of the Soviet Union" — lamented scholar, and recalled that in the "red zone" of seismic risks in Russia are large areas: the Far East and the Baikal region, Altai, Dagestan. Most disturbing are the Kurils. Fortunately, seismologists predicted that in the next six months, catastrophic earthquakes occur here should not be.

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