All of the Company's policies concerned people (and politicization of society is very large) are interested in a simple question: how to actually votes won the election Lukashenko? And no answer to it. After canceling all independent mechanisms to identify public opinion. There was no pre-election opinion polls, that would be credible and were not part of the war by means of sociology. There was no independent exit polls, which were conducted according to the rules. In Minsk, in some parts of the observers have made a fair counting of votes of those voters who voted on December 19. There Lukashenko gained about 35%. Is it possible, guided by this indicator, see the electoral picture even across the capital, let alone the country? Apparently not.
This trip mechanisms to identify public opinion not only due to obstacles from the authorities (for example, the defeat of "Novak"). The situation is very revealing in terms of interest in the Belarusian elections by foreign political entities. Previously, this was not. During important election campaigns have always been money for surveys. Now, both the West and East have put on Lukashenko because actually happening in the country, few people are interested. But that's another matter.
Now we can state that the politicians and the experts have to draw conclusions blindly. Here the opposition held a street action of beating the doors in Government House, its bloody crackdown riot police. How to react to this society? On whose side is leaning public opinion? What proportion of the population split? Or approves radical actions of the opposition Democratic electorate? All These questions No answer. We have to draw conclusions on some circumstantial evidence.
For example, a previously unseen wave of solidarity with the arrested, raising funds in support of them suggest that the double injustice of the authorities outraged society. First, declared 80% of the votes in favor of Lukashenko and 1-2% for its competitors was obvious overkill. Especially against the background of a relatively free, active and pluralistic elections. People remember standing rows wishing to subscribe for the opposition candidates, their families and the workforce lively discussions about who to vote for. So even that part of the population that are distrustful of the statements by the opposition of fraud, was outraged by these ungodly numbers CEC.
And here is outraged at the company struck the second blow, almost physical. By riot police. The arrest of five (and first of seven) of opposition candidates looks like a revenge for the fact that the entry into the competition with the dictator. For example, Nekljaev was not on the Square, was not involved in the events for which he was arrested, dragged from the hospital. Judging by the Internet, the power was in the moral isolation.
But is it not a lie of a man living on the Internet? A different interpretation of the events. For example, this: the government has shown strength and its people zapavazhav. After all, in a society that has lost the moral, values, the only thing that pay attention people, this is brute force. See how much evidence of forced early voting were released only in the Internet space. Was there at least one example of collective protest? No. The individual was, and there was a collective.
Another symptom. I had never been to a number of iconic people began to repent. A statement by the chairman Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada) Anatol Lyaukovich (Sovetskaya Belorussia 21:12:10) suggests that one of the major opposition parties actually changed the political orientation, has moved to support the government. (In any case, no protests from the party's environment we have not heard). This event does not occur often.
The only indisputable conclusion is that the events of December 19-20, strongly split the society. This split became deeper. There is a quiet, invisible civil war. This is the most important result of the presidential election.