Some of the Russian public has gained popularity motto — "Enough to feed the Caucasus!". Some even offer separate the North Caucasian republics of the Russian Federation, to give them independence, even if they are against secession. But they either do not understand what consequences this event threatens the Russian Federation, or, on the contrary, it is perfectly understand and act in the direction of disintegration and destruction of the Russian Federation.
In military-strategic terms we lose a powerful natural defense limit, focusing on who can keep the defense from possible brutal aspirations of Georgia, Iran or Turkey, and other forces that can use their territory as a base for a war with Russia.
Outside politics. This step will cause serious damage to the status of, global society will clear message — "bear died," it's time to separate the skin. In addition, the new "state" or their union confederation, will be required to find a new patron, as can not become an independent force (take the path of Georgia). They promptly went out and brought them — the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar will not hesitate to provide "assistance". Help can be both monetary and humanitarian and military, with the premise of "limited" peacekeeping force to stabilize the situation. North Caucasus is almost 100% chance to be shocking conflict. A lot of controversy there between ethnic groups, religions, clans, etc. NATO bases appear in the North Caucasus, under any scenario, so "lay leaders" of the Georgian wing just themselves summoned NATO troops in the region to strengthen their positions. And with "afghanization" Caucasus Union may repeat the experience of the real Afghanistan. "Caucasian terrorists" what-nibudt undermine and NATO troops will begin to "humanitarian operation", the benefit of Turkey — a member of the North Atlantic contract and its troops will be able to have a "brotherly" help the Muslim peoples of the Caucasus.
"Afghanization" of the North Caucasus. Because of the problems of totality, from religious to ethnic conflicts, the Caucasus without Russia could be reincarnated as "Afghanistan-2." On the border of the Russian Federation will get a terrible wound that will be a source of weight problems: hundreds of thousands of refugees, epidemics, open making drugs and their transit market instruments, raids on the Russian regions, etc. Maybe there will be also some "Caucasian Taliban", which will start a war against the "infidels" in the Caucasus and beyond.
In the same form we can get the script of the "war of all against all": the genocide of significant Russian community, the war with Muslims, Christians, ethnic wars, such as Chechens and Ingush against Ossetians war supporters structural trends of Islam against the "moderates."
Domestic policy. An example of the North Caucasus podhlestnet other seeds of separatism in Russia — in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, etc. It is clear that Mrs. Clinton came to Kazan's not the case.
Rossi will start in brand new criminal revolution. Ethnic mafia get reinforcements, weapons. Will be created or strengthened Islamist underground.
The radicalization of Islam. It is clear that the Chechen gangs have received funding, support, training, a base for a holiday in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar. In the case of the separation of the North Caucasus from the Russian Federation, no stops, borders, countering Russian secret services will not longer exist. And we'll see how a couple of years until the comparable small group of fanatical mujahideen, ready to wage war with the wrong, to lead a "holy war", will be turned into a powerful army, ready to continue coming against Russia under the pretext of "liberating" fellow Muslims in other regions . Besides the Sunni monarchy, the country is now completely on the basis of legitimacy (or confederation of independent states) will be able to equip them with heavy weapons — SAMs, anti-tank systems, armored vehicles, aircraft and helicopters.
The total flight of the population from the North Caucasus. For a start, having lost Russia and the North Caucasus remains market for their products and resources for production, and its economy is so weak fall for a year and a half. This automatically leads to a hell of an increase in the unemployment rate, which is already very high and a fall in living standards in the region. These processes will take place at the same time the growth of hatred for the Russian ("Russia has thrown us, threw"), to which are not so well. Will prompt exodus of people, not only Russian, and Christians and all who does not see himself in such a future.
Moscow will have to choose: either to carry out a large-scale operation for removal of all Russian, blended families, or throw them in 1991, left to fend for themselves Russian community of the Baltic States, Central Asia, South Caucasus. Here we must bear in mind that in the North Caucasus, they will be virtually abandoned to a terrible death and a true slavery.
Refinement of the new boundaries. This is the border with Belarus or Ukraine, you can wait and thousands of refugees and raids-raids for plunder, kidnapping, and mass smelters guns, drugs, and even a massive invasion. Large sums will go to the construction of a true defensive zone, on the strong unit that will defend it.
Food security and a place of rest. It is clear that we will lose not only the Caucasian republics, and a number of adjoining areas that are at least become "safe havens". This is cereal with enough land suitable climate that give the Russian Federation of the food and can give even more when properly develop.
Lose a significant part of the resort, which has already been invested, and invested significant sums. This is a blow, because at the moment a large amount go abroad, support foreign economies. It will be much better if they stay in Russia, will work for our national economy.
The Caspian Sea. Our homeland will lose part of the Caspian Sea coast, in the worst case scenario, that's all. This is a blow to the defense of the southern borders, the loss of Russian bit of "Caspian pie" (hydrocarbons, biological resources, resort areas).
The tasks of infrastructure and logistics. By regions of the Northern Caucasus, the pipelines, steel and highways, ports are placed there. So, Makhachkala — an important seaport on the Caspian Sea and the Caspian Flotilla base. Its loss would be a serious discrepancy for the Russian Federation. In other words, will have to expend large sums for the construction of new pipelines or to pay bribes to local beys, khans for the transportation of hydrocarbons on an old.