— Faster rhetorical question, but still … What explains the excessive activity of the United States in Kyrgyzstan? How does their behavior with the conventional wisdom held view that where America — and there chaos? Why is this country malehankih such "honor"? And what do we get in the end?
— Kyrgyzstan, in principle, not an end in itself. In American analytical and political circles for many years, there is enough of the "Greater Near East", in which there are so-called "Project Greater Central Asia".
All of these projects and scenarios involve redrawing large regions on the world map. Kyrgyz part of the Ferghana plains in these scenarios destined Kosovo: it will be an enclave, in what will be focused crime, drugs and terrorism structures. Through these "strings" can be as necessary to influence the region. In Europe, this feature makes Kosovo — are here for you and the European Centre for drug trafficking under the roof of the U.S. air base Bondsteel, here, and trafficking in persons and human organs, smuggling guns, the whole range of criminal market …
By the way, a similar fate awaited and Libya, more precisely in its eastern part, where are based on currently supported by the West so called "revolutionaries".
— Not so long ago, on one of the international conference, you said that virtually any conflict in Kyrgyzstan threatens to become an international … But last year's experience, I am referring to operations in the south, fortunately was different.
— Ok, that last year was localized south of action — almost all due to the right, in principle, politics Karimov. I think in Tashkent well aware that no matter what at least some escalation of the conflict in the Ferghana valley has been, is, and will focus initially on Uzbekistan.
It is necessary to keep in mind that, historically, the IMU — are former opposition Islam Karimov. And this tool is aimed against him, against the political regime in Uzbekistan, directly or subtly. Islam Karimov holds the "right" policy — the pressure IMU, its activity in the region decreases, makes the "wrong" — on the contrary, the activity of "idushnikov" is growing.
This does not negate their transnational activity, of course … Many of the favorites of the IMU "practiced" in Chechnya, since last spring in their ranks came the massive replenishment composed of immigrants from the Caucasus and Xinjiang — the Chechens, Dagestani Uighurs … versatile tool.
— Which, besides, and is stationed near by, and probably enjoys a shaky situation for us and for the neighbors? The same Tajikistan, from which we have been waiting for the past year of threats, and of this, too …
— Tajikistan, in this case, important and comfortable, in part, as a transit area. This is essentially a conflict area since civilian wars of the 1990s, which was confirmed last year's action in the Rasht valley. Darwaza on the Afghan and Tajik border before the coming of the Kyrgyz point about half a thousand miles down the road. And the way this is not a time to pass and terrorists and drug traffickers. Dushanbe, in principle, never controlled this area — Tavildara, Garm, Dzhirgetal, so referred to as "Karategin zone". There's a one time only Russian power was established in 1950.
Besides Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, in any case — the de jure and de facto — will not be able to stay away from our homeland Kazakhstan — as CSTO member states. And in the case of conflict our homeland and Kazakhstan, one way or another, will intervene (whether political pressure or something else, right up to the invasion.)
— Latest Libyan actions could somehow affect the Middle East conflict?
— Certainly, in Astana and Tashkent have learned from the same number of Libyan events. Nazarbayev made secure premature elections that showed almost total absence or severe opposition. Uzbekistan has probably strengthened the appropriate state agencies.
But the sample to play in the multi-vector, counting on the loyalty of the Yankees, especially for countries where there are no resources are unreal: the time of these games ended. Games are fraught friendship with America: an example of the same Mubarak very euphony, and he was such a great friend Yankees.
United States at the moment of principle rotation itself for itself. This means that priklnnye regimes who spent 20 years and losing power, had to substitute for the other. Where can guarantee it will not appear in relation to, for example, to Nazarbayev?
— But after his attempt to shift can end chaos
— A task the U.S. in the region lies in the fact, that set the controlled chaos. On the territory of Kyrgyzstan will smolder low-intensity conflict, occasionally hidden, incidentally — taking the open nature … and manage them easily — for example, giving money, weapons — or vice versa, without giving — there are many methods of controlling the activity of these agents provocateurs, terrorists and so on.
— What is the purpose of controlling chaos?
— Now it is almost everything in modern politics determine the energy. The conflict — one of the methods of management of cash flow. If the region is in a state of conflict, and the possibility of production, and in particular the export of energy is dramatically reduced: who will invest in a pipeline running through the country at war?
— Pipelines in Central Asia want to build so many countries. Almost all the global players have here the pipeline projects
— At the moment, there is a tendency for the supply of hydrocarbons from Central Asia to China. And one of the goals pursued by the script of "controlled chaos" — preservation of regional supplies of oil and gas supplies and to prevent their opponents, preventing them to the Chinese market.
Another task — to put indirect pressure on countries that are rivals. In fact, happen conflict, Our homeland and Kazakhstan will be required to expend on security is not just huge and vast resources. Even if you do not become directly involved in the conflict. For example, China in March 2005 after several times to increment their infrastructure costs related to border security with Kyrgyzstan. Safety — very precious pleasure, and considering that the Russian-Kazakh border — one of the longest in the world? Yes vsepolnotsenno equip it — these costs will not sustain any "Gazprom" …
In addition, provoking conflict and maintaining neutralize unwanted integration projects. For example, collapsing just starting to be realized Customs alliance. Well, how it will affect Kyrgyzstan — I think, and without much explanation is clear.