What powers will win and lose from Arab Troubles

The wave of revolution continues to walk in the Middle East. The excitement of varying intensity wrapped in Algeria, Morocco, Oman, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan. In Libya, the war is already underway civilian clothes.

Probable country — "hot spots"

— Egypt: in political terms, the revolution in Egypt has just begun, do not address the issue of power, the army temporarily, before the election, the situation has stabilized. Increase the impact of the movement "Muslim Brotherhood." The economy weakened — paralyzed tourism in the coming term (up to 5 years) — reduction of the Nile River, while South Sudan embodies the reality of plans to build a hydropower in the upper reaches of the Nile.

Egypt threatens unhurried slide (in the forthcoming rapid growth of the population, and nothing says that it will be scaled down) to the level of countries like Yemen or Somalia. Another option — for the survival of Cairo will have to start external expansion may be the motto "pan-Arab unity." Expansion of the traditional routes: South conjunction with the North Sudan (which previously went into English Egypt), then likely hit further south, in areas of South Sudan, with its oil fields. After that Egypt could become the center of the United Arab world. Then — still conflict with Israel, it will be hard to avoid

Second route, more terrible — expansion to the north. Trying to throw passionarnost youth in the war with Israel. There is likely a tragic scenario for Egypt — the loss of the Sinai Peninsula and the Israeli attack on the Aswan dam. This greatly exacerbate the problem of food (since the banging of Agriculture) and the power supply, not including losses from flooding. Likely option than a direct confrontation, and support for Cairo furtive movement "Hamas" in the struggle against Israel.

— Sudan, there is a big question to be seen whether North and South Sudan peacefully "break up" on the results of the referendum. Chance of a brand new plain clothes with hundreds of thousands of war victims and refugees. Not resolved the issue with a section of the oil regions of Sudan — the problem of Darfur, Kordofan expect their own hours.

Such actions greatly complicate the situation in the strategic principle, reddish sea and in the Suez Canal. The problem of Somali pirates would be a trifle in comparison with the likely consequences of the war in the Sudan and Egypt.

— Algeria, President Bouteflika still holds control over the state, but the output is out of control situation is likely in at least some day — in the country since 1992, is a plain-clothes War (prituhshaya to this day) between the government and the Islamists. In Algeria, there is a massive Islamist underground, which supports the rural population and assist large Algerian community outside the country (Spain, France). In addition, there is the problem of the Berber tribes who resist Arabization. Fully likely "Egyptian version" when the president will leave, leaving the power to the army before the election.

— Morocco, also falls, as complicate the situation in Algeria. There is the problem of separatism — Western Sahara, the Islamist underground, which is stronger than all the pressure on the authorities are committing acts of terrorism against the Christian, the Jewish population, attacks on tourists. Confluence of Morocco into chaos dramatically complicate the situation in the fundamental strategic Strait of Gibraltar.

Confluence of Algeria, Morocco, in controlled chaos greatly exacerbate the situation in Europe, there will be hundreds of thousands of refugees, the Algerian and Moroccan pirates (the good, the historical experience of these countries in this fishery is large).

— Yemen, the collapse of the positions of President Saleh is guaranteed to lead to the outbreak of violence and the disintegration of the country, to the separation of South Yemen. The big problem to begin with Saudi Arabia and Oman. Shiite tribes of Yemen have proved their fighting ability in clashes with the army in Saudi Arabia. Very likely scenario fall of Saudi Arabia, Oman.

— Bahrain and Oman, fall of the power of Sunni elite in Bahrain, in a country where most of the — the Shiites, may also lead to the collapse of the country. Oman may also end up being as a government — the problem of the Governorate of Dhofar.

— Jordan, corruption has undermined the position of the Hashemite dynasty in the middle of the Bedouin tribes. The situation complicates the mass of Palestinians (most of the population) and approximately 700 thousand Iraqi refugees.

— Iraq and Afghanistan, has turned into the countryside, following the collapse and plainclothes war which constrains only the presence of the occupying forces.

— Pakistan, was one of the most unstable countries, and to the Arab Troubles, and now the danger is increased. Its decay, plainclothes war will compel India to intervene or be forced to spend U.S. operation to eliminate the nuclear forces of Pakistan.

Who is the winner?

— Turkey and Iran received political dividends in the short term. The fall of Mubarak's government in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the weakening of Iran and Turkey have made favorites of the Islamic world. In addition, Iran and Turkey at the present time "allies" in terms of the case for Israel.

Ankara began to restore the position majestic power, yet very carefully, but the process has begun. Iran and Turkey have agreed on a division of spheres of influence in Iraq in the event of the withdrawal of U.S. forces. In Turkey, a secular peak defeated army, which prevented the Islamization of the country, now the process will go faster. The ruling triumvirate of Prime Minister Erdogan, President Gul and Foreign Affairs Minister Davutoğlu secured a dominant position in the country's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is leading the country towards a moderate Islamization. Prime Minister Erdogan criticized the internal politics of Berlin, aimed at the "Germanization" of the Turkish community in Germany, called on Turks in Germany to preserve their culture and language. Ankara has limited cooperation within NATO purely Turkish interests, decreases dependence on the United States. The process of strengthening capacity of the Turkish army, which conducts military operations in the areas of Iraq, and Navy. Iran and Turkey cooperate in the output of Iranian resources (oil and gas) in the European market.

— Iran has successfully shot down the first wave of the revolution, and apparently ready to go to great toughness to keep the situation under control. Tehran despite Western pressure develops a nuclear program from, improves the armed forces. Evenly revolutionary Iran is transformed into the state, in the power of the Persians. Its influence extends to the strengths of the movement "Hamas", "Hezbollah," the truest Army of Iran beyond. Iran has made great contacts with a number of Latin America, for example, with Venezuela. The revolutions in the Arab countries strengthen Iran's position, undermine the strength rivals in the struggle for leadership in the Islamic world. Iran likely scenario absorption of the wreckage of Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, were once part of the Persian Empire.

— Our homeland, already won by rising prices for energoelementy. For the Euro Union of Russia is a very principled partner to save your energy. Russia may support Iran on its way to the majestic power of transformation that will bring back the friendship of the Persians. Our homeland only benefit from this, we get a strategic ally and a large market for its own products — guns, aircraft, rolling s
tock of railways, etc. It may be the embodiment of the mass of joint projects in the field of peaceful nuclear energy, construction, railways, aviation, shipbuilding, development of deposits of the Caspian Sea, etc. We can also maintain a friendly neutrality towards Turkey by supporting it on the way out of the alliance with the U.S. and the EU.

— China, can dramatically enhance its position in these regions in the criteria for chaos and rising hatred of the Arabs to the U.S. and the West, especially if NATO goes to the military intervention against any country, for example, Libya.

— USA, in the medium term can strengthen its position by putting in capitals even more pro-Western factions. Gain time, distracting the world from their problems and preparing for the Great War. "Dip" competitive groups in Europe — first France and Germany. In the long term, the situation may be complicated by strengthening Iran's position, "cooling" alliance with Turkey, its Islamization penetration of China and a sharp increase in the constructive position of Islam.

Who loses

— Normal people of Arab and other states, where will the wave of the Troubles. They face a sharp deterioration in living, food problems — likely famine, war, including civilians, and the flight of millions of people in search of a simple criterion of life-water, food. The reign of Saddam Hussein, Mubarak, Gaddafi will still be remembered as a time of stability and improve the lives of the majority.

— European Alliance — The waves of migrants from Tunisia, Libya, has now gone, it will complicate the lives of European standard — extra money on the Border, immigration services, the police, the need to make a simple living conditions for thousands of (maybe millions) of refugees. The growth of the crime situation, Nazi attitudes in society. In France and Austria, the national parties are the most popular. Europe to go the way of tightening control over society, likely fascization number of countries. The problem of energy supply, their appreciation. The possible occurrence of pirates in the Mediterranean. The need to carry out military operations for the export of its own people, the oppression of terrorist bases of pirates.

— Israel, Jewish government is able to war around the perimeter boundaries. Ally is left in the Arab world, enemies become more radicalization in Arab countries will lead to finding opponents. Tel Aviv to review its policy towards the United States and find new strategic patron, two candidates — China, but it is too far, and of general interest is not enough, and our homeland. Taking into account the fact that Israel is practically resolved to Stalin and a strong community of Russian (Russian) Jews can make sustainable strategic partnership.

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