Of course, the West can not prevent the revival of the Russian Federation, as of the 1st of global players. Because at some point on the Russian Federation will be dealt a blow to dismember the Russian government, divide it into spheres of influence. And to save, so Makarov, the Western world due to the "blood" of. In particular, such an attack can make the Anglo-Saxon part of the project of the West (the United States and England).
The scenario of open war at the present time seems to be considered early. Russian army is still in the presence of sufficient funds for inflicting unacceptable harm though what the enemy. Open warfare involves significant costs, require large human and material resources. Need absolute confidence that Moscow would not use nuclear weapon. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the armies of the West, not including the U.S., have lost the ability to conduct large-scale war, they can carry out punitive raids, pirate attacks, at least. For the creation of the army to wage a serious war, the West needs a different mode, not liberal-democratic or social-democratic, years of military reforms, the militarization of consciousness of European inhabitants.
West will play in an old successful game — "divide and rule" pitting different nations, religions, social groups among themselves. In this regard, the example of the Russian Empire, which is similar segodnyaschy Russian Federation.
Main conditions that will develop (already developing) Western intelligence agencies, the hidden network structure of the "Masonic" character, "the fifth column":
— Conflict of "power" and "the people", for the 20th anniversary of the power is perceived by most people as the enemies that are occupied only by the accumulation of capital. Motto: "Enough to feed the officials, Moscow," more and more popular.
— Rift society "successful" and "losers", the gap between the most affluent and the poor is estimated at about 20 times. Ripe conditions for a class war, being able to blaze a cottage villages on the outskirts of big cities and will kill only because of the expensive car.
— Caucasian discrepancy. Can lead to both large-scale massacres on ethnic grounds, and the newest of the Caucasian War, which will pale before the Chechen war, 1994-1996, 1999-2000.
— Migrants. They already represent a significant force, especially in Moscow, which can be used to destabilize the situation in the country. Or set on their indigenous populations. Arrange pogroms in the state and religion.
— Russian question. The Russian people through a number of system errors during the Soviet Union and the Russian policy in the period, almost all converted to Russian mass. This caused the youth internal protest, the growth of nationalist sentiment. Zeal for justice may be a fuse to the collapse of Russia. The West can run the script "Russian revolt."
— Throwing Russian intelligentsia. Intellectuals in the Russian Empire, the Russian Union was a massive revolutionary detachment unhappy state of affairs, and had brought a large contribution to the destruction of these empires. Russian intelligentsia could not be better (maybe its quality even fallen) because moaning about "this country" and that "you can not live like this," will be heard more often.
— Russian army and Interior Ministry discouraged reforms because of their capacity to resist, in the absence of willful favorite, will be low. The generals even try to fish in troubled waters.
— Liberal society, the comprador bourgeoisie unhappy "new coming of" Putin. This is reflected in the growth of the activity of their activities. For example, October 13 Russian Alliance of Manufacturers and Businessmen (RSPP) said the political doldrums in Russia and put forward demands for political reform in the country.
The main scenario
Caucasian War. Taking into account the fact that the North Caucasus is often carried out "counter-terrorist operation" and the edges of them are not visible, it is clear that the Islamic underground only strengthens their position. By means of the use and development of the society the problem of the North Caucasus can not be solved. If you fail to undermine the North Caucasus Federal District, it will be very difficult war, Bows are not just Chechnya, and other regions. It can lead to a complete destabilization of the situation in Russia. West may begin to seek the withdrawal of troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to introduce there the "peacekeeping forces".
With each assignment Moscow pressure will only increase, right up to the requirements of the input "peacekeepers" of the UN to the North Caucasus. It will be great for the Russian Federation "of Kosovo." Then Russia will be cut to pieces, bit by bit.
"February 2". The destruction of the country will be launched from the center. In Moscow, Putin's opponents (the Liberals, the National Democrats, some nationalists may be a part of the Communist Party, "Fair RF"Supported by the oligarchs, aimed at West officials) will lead thousands of people with the motto -" occupying the Kremlin ». Slogans and talking points of the protest movement is walking in the Russian Federation: "Down with the party of crooks and thieves," "Enough to feed Moscow," "Enough to feed the Caucasus", "Down with Putin!" Etc. Taking into account the experience of Egypt and Tunisia, we can say that oppose such a movement, supported by a mass of Russian and Western media (which may put some dirt on the minions of the Russian Federation, ministers, in the style of the information bomb "Wikileaks"), will manage only a very strong-willed person. Whether it is able to Putin and Medvedev?
"The international community" here will claim a "dialogue with the people." Unknown snipers and plainclothes officers will organize several clashes — with transparent borders of the Russian Federation and the presence of entrepreneurs have their own "teams" can not fluctuate that it will. Shed the first blood. Favorites of the opposition will create a Russian Transitional Council of State.
And then it all depends on the will of political governance — will they be able to stand against such pressure. Will the Interior Ministry and the army to contain the protest movement directly to the use of force, following the example of Syria. Putin faces the problem — clean up the "fifth column" in Russia (and those who foolishly and youth perceive their own role in the destruction of the country) or to give up, maybe on "honorable conditions."
With the victory of the opposition, we are waiting for a "transitional government-2" and — then read the history books. If Putin goes to a complete break with the West, it will be a "Stalin-2" and he will repeat his way — the "great purge", industrialization, create a powerful army, etc.
"The Libyan scenario." Russia will be set on fire as a pioneer fire from multiple directions, and some of them could be "cover operation", say the script for "February 2".
For example, in the Far East there "guerrilla squad", which will announce the Emancipation of the Russian people from the yoke of Moscow. Make several successful attacks on local officials. Trans-Siberian undercut in several places ", unknown." While Moscow will try to put things in order, like any group in Siberia, the Urals and the Volga region. Web casters will be swarmed with calls to the military, Interi
or Ministry, the people support the "Russian resistance." People will be disoriented, some will decide that it's true. With all of this "government forces" (remember the example of Syria) will hold several punitive actions — will die peaceful inhabitants.
Rebellion breaks out in Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria. In Moscow will begin a mass protest. "The international community" will claim to start a "dialogue with the people" to "political reform" does not solve the problem of "violence."