Number of people in the world is rapidly shrinking. But officials and experts alike and actively talk about the low birth rate, and the overcrowding of land. Which of these promises true? The answer to this reporter tried to find the portal interfax.by, referring to the well-known demographer and the statistics …
That threatens the well-being of society?
According to the director of the Russian Institute for Demographic Research, Doctor of Social Sciences Igor Beloborodov, global threats to family life and create a few children and low birth rates, abortion, including "gendertsid" free sex and cohabitation, adultery and homosexuality, and assisted reproductive technologies.
Among the factors that adversely affect the demographic situation in the world and especially in some of its regions, it also considers sterilization and contraception, the destruction of family ties (juvenile justice, divorce, intergenerational conflicts), feminism, sex education in schools, pornography, prostitution, antireproduktivnye vaccination and fetal therapy.
We are becoming less
The average annual rate of population change suggests that we become still less. In the period from 1950 to 1975 as a percentage of this figure was 1.92%, and is currently (2005-2050) is reduced to 0.38%.
The most deplorable situation is in developed countries. Back in the 70's of last century, this figure amounted to 1.01 there, but now reduced to a "freezing" of indicators — 0.30. In-one "minus" and the Region. There is a measure of change in population in the coming decades will be reduced to -0.60%.
Where to have more?
Exploring the region with the highest fertility, scientists have concluded that the first place in this list is Africa. In the two times below the figures in Europe and America. However, the same ratio was maintained in the past: in 1990 and in 2000.
However, in the world of children born not so much as 40 years ago. Then the birth rate was 4.7, now it is 2.5. More than halved over the years the birth rate in Asia (from 5.4 to 2.4) and Latin America (from 5.2 to 2.3). And in the relatively prosperous regions of North America and Europe this figure dropped to dramatically low numbers (up to 2.0 in the U.S. and 1.5 in Europe).
Top 10 leaders on demographic changes in fertility
1. Nigeria (the total population of 149.2 million people)
2. Pakistan (174.56 million)
3. India (1,157 million)
4. Bangladesh (156 million)
5. Indonesia (240.27 million)
6. Brazil (198.7 million)
7. United States (307 million)
8. China (1.340 million).
9. Russia (140 million)
10. Japan (127 million)
More — less
In 1950, the birth rate in the world, was 4.92, in 1970 — 4.32, in 1990 — 3.08. By 2010, we came up with a measure of 2.56, and for the next five years, up to 2015, this figure will be reduced by another 0.07 — 0.1.
Next — worse. By the period 2020-2025. the birth rate decreased to 2.3, for 2035-2040 years. — Up to 2.1, and by 2050 it may be exactly 2. Population will die out.
Who's against it?
Against the increase in population in the world expressed by many famous politicians and people from completely different areas.
UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin said that the need to invest resources in the fact that women and men are able to exercise their right to determine the number and spacing of their children.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Muhu believes that "in order to have a real chance to stabilize world population, the birth rate has fallen below replacement level."
World famous entrepreneur and former head of "Microsoft" Bill Gates convinced that there should be a great job on new vaccines, health care and reproductive health in order to reduce population growth by 10-15%. "
Media mogul Ted Turner, founder of CNN in 1996, openly declared: "The decline of the world's population by 95% to 225-300 million would be" ideal ".
"Interestingly, all of these figures — many children fathers, which on one hand call cut population growth, on the other — it themselves increase," — smiling I.Beloborodov.
How instead of the Earth?
According to some projections, by 2045 the total number of people living on the planet will reach 9 billion people. Can we talk about overpopulation?
Apparently not. As suggested by Igor Beloborodov demographers and many others, our planet can accommodate 200 thousand times more than the current "only" 7 billion people. In other words, the Earth will make 1 300 000 000 000 000.
All of the current world population, according to the scientists, can quite comfortably in the light of Australia — a country with an area of 7,682,300 square meters. km and its own population to 21.7 million
What about resources?
One of the main arguments of the active supporters of fertility decline around the world — the distribution and consumption of energy, which may be reduced in the near future. But this argument of the opponents of the idea of overpopulation of the Earth has its own rebuttal.
They calculated that consumption of wood and aluminum, as well as the active use of energy — it is almost full prerogative of developed countries, as they own the lion's share of waste that pollute the environment.
Developing countries, in turn, have higher figures on population and consumption of clean water.
How much to give birth?
For reproduction, the birth rate must be higher mark of 2.1 children per one woman explains I.Beloborodov.
0.1 — those born children who do not survive to reproductive age or were subsequently unable to have children. Instead, the current fertility is 1.4 children per woman. In Eastern Europe, the figure reproduction of the nation is 1.5 times lower than necessary.
A one-child during mass, scientists say, the population is reduced by half for 25-30 years.
What is the reason for the low birth rate?
In Hungary, in 2008 it reached almost 60%, not far behind Denmark, France, England and New Zealand. For comparison: in Belarus, this figure was at 20%.
The post-Soviet region from 2005 to 2008, was among the leaders in the number of divorces. Most (more than 5 per 1000) of registered in Ukraine, only slightly less — in Russia (5) and in Belarus (about 3.8).
"Aging" of the nation:
Most of the "old" country can be considered Japan: there age 22.6% of residents over 65 years old. Next in the list followed by Germany (20.5%), Italy (20.4%), Sweden (18.3%), Greece (18.3%), Portugal (17.9%), Bulgaria (17.6 %), Austria (17.6%), Belgium (17.4%) and Latvia (16.9%).
Financial security should not be an excuse for low fertility, say experts. And give us examples of the level of income and fertility in the poorest countries. In Liberia, for example, 95% of the population lives on income of $ 2 per person, and the birth rate is 5.8. Among the poor, but also of plodorodyaschih Crafted Malawi (91% poor and 5.7 fertility rate), Madagascar (90% and 4.6), Rwanda (90% and 4.6) and Tanzania (88% and 5.4) . Income and fertility in Eastern Europe have a different relationship.
Belarus: 1% of the poor (those living on $ 2 a day) — 1.5 births
Bulgaria: 7% — 1.5
Czech Republic: 1% — 1.5
Hungary: 1% — 1.3
Moldova: 13% — 1.3
Poland: 1% — 1.4
Romania: 1% — 1.3
Russia: 1% — 1.6
Slovakia: 1% — 1.4
Ukraine: 1% — 1.4.