In the middle of this kind of research especially exciting version of the hidden purpose of confrontation. Many create memories that the U.S. still plans to bring the case to its logical conclusion, prompting Iran to the overlap of Hormuz duct. It is not difficult to calculate exactly how the government will suffer from this at first. 20% of Iran's oil sails away to China. Specifically, this event causes the official Beijing in every way to take care of its own naikrupneyshgo supplier, a veto power in the UN Security Council, and constantly insisting on a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Certainly, a certain amount of energoelementov China gets through pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan, but still a large part delivered by sea. So in the case of overlapping of Hormuz duct on the Chinese economy would suffer a devastating blow. Beijing has long been aware of this own Achilles' heel, because in his time made every effort trying to make the ground energoelementov flow through the pipeline. China does not frighten the terrible costs where, for example, scheduled trans-Asian pipeline to the Caspian Sea. But even these are desperately trying not to nothing and, as of today, China remains very dependent on oil flow through Hormuz.
The U.S. does not make sense to wait until Beijing will establish the same land-reliable delivery of messages for oil — and that's how the experts say, is one more reason to ignite the Iranian conflict.
Looks very possible that version on the background of some nedavneshnih events.
First, we should recall the development of a typical triple alliance between the U.S., India and Japan, with the aim of so-called "balance of power" or by calling a spade a spade, to put pressure on China.
Countries have already planned strategic advice and decided to hold joint naval exercises this year. Experts from New Delhi said that the alliance of the three leading democracies would be peaceful, categorically insisting on such a counterproductive military association.
But the planned coordination of naval forces of the holding and to this end, the respective activities.
It must be emphasized that between India and China in the form of proceeds acquired a conflict over the common border on the Himalayas. This dispute davneshny, and in the coming time its resolution is not expected. Moreover, in recent years an increasing number of violations of the border with the Chinese side. Until now, the United States filed about a significant silence. Of course, India is a very trusts that the strengthening of the alliance with Japan and the United States, which has, in its opinion, an enormous political importance, to protect the disputed border from very brutal neighbor.
Indeed, India's inclusion in the official military Union is problematic. South American analysts are skeptical about a large military capability of New Delhi, accusing him of eternal policy of "non-alignment" to the military though how international organizations. Indian experts also justify a cautious policy of its own country to the fact that separates Japan from China aqua enough place, and the U.S. in general is on a different continent, India is the same — a particular neighbor of China, and it is much more difficult to hazard a frankly brutal acts.
In any case, a military alliance with India, the United States can not expect the exact same concerted action as, for example, from the land of the rising sun, which is related not only quite strong economic ties, and davneshnimi contractual obligations.
In addition, India has yet to coordinate the actions of their own with the Japanese Navy, which also seems to be not high-spirited and easy. Although the decision to similar coordination was voiced by Japanese prime minister in 2008 after allegations of security cooperation with India.
Some difficulties also arise as a result of disagreements on many issues, including the imposition of sanctions against Iran. But when all the above roughness are overcome, it is planned accession fourth member — Australia. Such a quaternary alliance was planned long ago already, but did not take place due to the mismatch of its members.
The Obama administration has in mind languid economic situation of the country, announced its decision to reduce military spending, leaving a huge role to its regional partners. This decision will please many U.S. allies, including Japan, giving more freedom to make their own decisions.
Despite the fact that the thousandth unit of the United States has long time dwell on old military bases in the Land of the Rising Sun, Guam and South Korea, Washington wants to further strengthen its presence in the region. For example, the increased pressure on China manifested in enhancing military cooperation with the Philippines. In 1992, the U.S. was successfully expelled from their own base of Subic Bay, which is almost 100 years was an outpost of the United States in the region. Now scheduled to conclude a new agreement on military cooperation, which will open a discussion at the highest level in March of this year. Involves placing the Philippines additional troops United States, managing ships MBC Philippine joint military exercises.
Today about 600 U.S. troops posted in the Philippines, but the government of the archipelago are aimed at more closely, it is planned placement of surveillance aircraft and warships of the United States.
Another somewhat unexpected ally of the United States to curb China was Vietnam. For the first time in almost 40 years, in August last year, the South American ship visited his former military base in Cam Rahn Bay, which once time was one of the biggest deepwater U.S. bases. Davneshnie territorial disputes with China, Vietnam was forced to reconsider their attitude to the Yankees.
So Makar, a region the U.S. has collected a large anti-Chinese coalition. Apart from the land of the rising sun, India, Australia, the Philippines and Vietnam, the U.S. plans to "make friends against China" with Singapore and Thailand.
Reduction in military spending forced the U.S. to abandon the creation of large military bases in the "Cold War", more emphasis on the implementation of the regional forces of the Allies. Therefore planned to conduct training for the future ability to coordinated action. This in itself should have sufficient moral influence on the China.
But many South American experts say that all these measures are somewhat late, given the power of economic growth and high-spirited Eastern superpower.
In the light of this kind of hesitation, the assumption that the attacks on Iran have a Chinese subtext, seem entirely possible.