Conflict with China: how it looks and how to avoid it

With the disappearance of the Russian Union of China has become South American opponent of the "default" force against which the U.S. is preparing his army (at least, when there were more pressing opponents). When the war in Iraq is over, and Afghanistan is close to the end, President Obama announced again in Asia as the center of American interests, with a particular focus on China. This raises the question, how can look conflict with China, and how to really avoid.

Over the next 20 years Chinese GDP and defense budget can grow so that surpass similar in the U.S., allowing them to become a real rival for the leadership. Despite this potential, the security interests China and its military capabilities are likely to remain focused on the coming of its periphery. Possible conflicts can involve Korea, Taiwan, one or more of South East Asia or India, about the fall of that order of probability. The US-China conflict can also occur in cyberspace (and, perhaps, would be concentrated in it). Armed conflict between the U.S. and China can not be realized in any of these events, but this judgment is based on the assumption that the United States will continue opportunity control environment, which could lead to a similar conflict.

While China's military capabilities are not equivalent to a South American (and do not get close to them in recent years), but they rapidly reach a local advantages over the coming neighbors, first around Taiwan, and then a slightly larger radius. As a consequence, for the Yankees smooth defense disputed assets in the region will be more difficult, right up to its complete impossibility. U.S. will be increasingly dependent on the increasing number of objects that need defense, and limited response capabilities for response and intervention. The South American nuclear unlikely to help an advantage in such hands as China, in-1's, retain the ability to fight back, and in-2, the rates in the more likelihood of a crisis will have important policy implications for the United States. Conflict, likely to develop in the cyber and economic space. In both cases U.S. vulnerability such that unpresentable make it costly. Conventional attacks on the Chinese mainland military targets can be quite good for the escalation of the conflict, but under a huge swings that they will be able to resolve this conflict.

One means of improving the prospects of direct protection and reduce the risks of escalation for the United States is to expand and support for China's neighbors. Such a strategy should not be (or seem) attempt to adjust the U.S. against China region, which would lead to the growth of Chinese hostility. On the contrary, efforts should be made to involve China in the different systems of cooperative security, not only to avoid the appearance anti-China coalition, and for more rassredotachivaniya international security between all stakeholders, and not just in the middle of the second on the power of the country in the world.

The economic consequences of the Sino-American conflict may be historically unparalleled, even if both sides try to avoid the economic war. It is a massive mutual deterrence, the currently marginalized from the American side. Strengthening of the U.S. economy — it's the best way to make sure that the balance between interdependence and containment has moved in an insecure manner against the United States in the next few decades.

Although the risk of conflict with China can not be ignored, it is not worth exaggerate. A huge number of other conflicts more possible. And it conflicts with opponents, very different from China, which reclaims abilities, much good from those required for the proceedings with a real match for. Individually, these unexpected costs will be less significant impact than conflict with China, but collectively they form the international environment in which the two countries will conduct the interaction that fundamentally affects the Chinese perception of American power and determination.

Like this post? Please share to your friends: