Constantine Syroezhkin: China will support the illusion of, without changing their concepts

"China Policy: 5th generation. What to expect Kazakhstan and the region" — on the topic in Alma-Ata on November 20, a meeting of experts was held in the Club Institute of Political Solutions (Cyprus, Kazakhstan). Chief Scientist at KISR President of the Republic, the sinologist Syroezhkin Constantine gave a detailed analysis of the 18 Congress of the Communist Party of China, outlined the main prepyadstviya development China, determine the prognosis follow the latest generation of Chinese managers. A REGNUM on the Rights of the Information Institute of Political Solutions partner offers you a transcript of the speech spec.

Constantine SYROEZHKIN, sinologist, Doctor of Political Sciences, Senior Researcher at KISR Kazakhstan President, the Speaker (report "Results of the 18th Congress of the CPC: prepyadstviya and Prospects" fifth generation ")

Do not quite agree with the thesis that has come to power, "the fifth generation"Because congress was a transition. Indeed, the "fourth generation" of power is gone, tradition is not broken. Those who are 70 years old, left the governing bodies. But what are currently the governing bodies? Personnel of the Central Committee, the Politburo and the Central Military Commission and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection — is the result of compromise between the 2 large elite groups: the so-referred to as "princes" and "Komsomol". Although this division is rather arbitrary.

So, out of the 25 members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee 18 th Legislature in 2017 (ie, the time of the 19th Party Congress) limiting the age of 70 reached 11 people, that is, half. Of the seven members of the committee unchanged Politburo of the 18th convocation of four reached the age limit. In other words, at the 19th Congress we will have brand new staff rotation and the new composition.

In-2, according to the enlisted members and alternate members of the CPC Central Committee, this body priemuschestvenno are those who, with their career growth should tandem Hu — Wen. Of the 205 people, permanent members of CPC Central Committee of the 18th convocation, 89 were members of the Central Committee of the CPC 17th convocation, 58 — candidates for the Central Committee of the CCP's 17th convocation, and 17 — members of the Central Committee of the CPC 17th convocation. New only 41 people out of 205, ie, 20%. Moreover, all these people, I can judge their biographies, nominees Hu Jintao.

B-3, Hu was able, despite the compromise reached with Jiang Zemin, to maintain their position in the Central Military Commission of the CPC, and in the future — at the Central Military Commission of the PRC, as an individual and the composition of both body monotonous.

Almost before the Congress, October 24, he announced six new teams: the new chief of the General Staff, the new commander of the Air Force, the new commander of the Second Artillery division (nuclear power), and in fact provide for themselves priklnny of the Central Military Commission. Of the eleven people who come there, seven — representatives of Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping, including as chairman. The only one who can be considered as representative of Jiang Zemin — is the Deputy Chairman of the Military Council of the Central Committee of the CPC Feng Chanlun. But the question here is controversial, as you remember the case of Bo Xilai before Congress — there all swore allegiance to Hu Jintao, including the military.

As for the division into "Tsarevich" and "Komsomol". I have already said, that it is quite arbitrary, since many can be attributed to that, and the other category. Striking example — Xi Jinping. By origin — "prince", but it is hard to suspect that it will hold a different policy, if Hu Jintao.

But the main thing is that the bands Hu Jintao, which was carried out for 10 years and have developed a pretty severe road map, in fact, there are no candidates for today.

Back to the days of the "cultural revolution" to Mao Zedong, as some assume, now in China is not feasible. "The train has left" and passed the step for which it was possible to come back. There are specific characteristics that the line proposed by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, quite true.

For 10 years, the GDP increased by 2.5 times, the gold reserves — 11 times the volume of foreign trade — to 5-fold, the number of roads constructed of steel has increased by 25.6%, auto — 2.3 times.

I'm not talking about the social sphere. For the first time in the history of China was canceled tax farmers. This huge funds, but, nevertheless, it was manufactured. Permission free 9-year education — universal, indispensable. Revenues rose is not very much, but if you associate: per capita in 2002, they accounted for about one thousand dollars, and at the moment — 5.5 thousand dollars. Not so much not too little — 5 times — but it is still a severe growth. Came almost re People's Liberation Army of China. It is no coincidence Americans in all his works view China as a danger room one.

But that does not mean that the problems in China do not. And these prepyadstviya assure me that the new administration will move in the direction of their predecessors. All the more so that these directions are indicated in the 12th Five-Year Plan, these plans should be done from anywhere they do not go away, it's the law, and marked Hu Jintao at the 18th Party Congress, quite carefully. He had read about what to do and what not for China and the CCP can be difficult.

So, the main problem lies in the fact that in the current time mode is going through a serious crisis of legitimacy. One of the first decisions of the fourth generation was the so-called the reinforcement of the possibility of the CPC to govern. Was made a special ruling, which was the subject of a plenum. In other words, people are realizing that there is a severe discrepancy, including and with the CPC as the ruling party. And because the main task for the new administration, as well as for their predecessors — is to regain the trust of the CPC and improve its ability to govern the state.

Hence, the basic idea of the Congress, the old slogans of "people — the base framework," "becoming party for all," "the embodiment of government for the people" and "management based on the law." These provisions are entered into a new charter of the CPC and move away from them, no one will. Violate wearied themselves to more expensive there specifically included newcomer, the amendment reinforcing the party discipline and control of the so-called executive employees.

What do I need to practice for this? First and foremost — is the fight against corruption. Indeed, the level of corruption rolls over. Because the emphasis that made Hu Jintao at the congress — to fight corruption, he urged not to engage in campaigning, and make legislative framework for constant control over the activities of government and party officials, those in China are called executive employees.

Second task — the new administration should continue the policy of his predecessors to change the pattern of economic growth. Indeed, the export-oriented model, when China was living in the main due to investment, exports and external investments, came to its own limit. Change the very economic model started back with Hu Jintao Wen Jiabao. But, unfortunately, did not have time to do everything, and it really made a lot, and the results of which I have read, in essence, is the embodiment of the idea of the configuration of the economic model. But not yet.

Now orientation should go on creating Innovative models and models that will ensure economic growth at the expense of domestic c
onsumer demand. A very difficult task, because in China prefer money in "money-box" to lay down, as everywhere else. And more to force the Chinese to waste — it's quite problematic, though for the past 10 years, the level of consumer demand has increased fourfold. This is also one of the harsh characteristics of the motion in this direction.

Third task — reducing the virtual economy. Unfortunately, China is no exception to the rule. There is also a very large number of companies took to the virtual sector. And hence the loss of the real cost, price increases, including for real estate, and many other problems. A brand-new generation of Chinese managers will need to offer something to start development of the real sector of the economy.

Fourth task — the expansion of domestic consumer demand. The best way to solve — increasing revenue, lowering the tax burden, etc. All this is quite expensive, but there is no nomination and need something to do.

5th task — the continuation of policy with regard to the Chinese countryside. As indicated last year, 700 million Chinese farmers — it's pretty scary explosive material, as most of last year's riots were in rural areas, and the main premise was the acquisition of land. Especially at the convention, it was stressed that this practice should be stopped and to take legislative measures to restrict land acquisition and solving social problems of the village. The severe problem — the social sphere, perhaps the most explosive. And there will have to continue to move in the same direction as the moving Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Here's the motto of "people — the base of the foundations" is just a reflection of the social policy of the fourth and fifth of the coming generation. There is a particular focus on creating public of the country. No development in the name of development, and development in the name of, that people began to live better.

One of the severe problems for the last generation — the aging of China. The process is very fast, and by 2022 the number of elderly (over 65 years) will grow to about 9-10%. And if we consider people over 60 years old, it is 28-30%. This is the stark figure. But the worst thing is not it, but the fact that China's population of 1.3 billion people, and the front is looming prospect of labor shortages. That is, there will come a time when the 1st working will account for two grandfathers, two grandmothers, two parents, and he is one and all to feed the need.

Another severe social problem of the configuration associated with the use of temper in China. In China, home to more than 1 million millionaires and almost 300 billionaires and 30%, according to Chinese sources, is the middle class. These people forms the newest model of consumption. Where such a boom, when the Chinese masses are moving abroad — in Europe, in the U.S. and there outfit? Since China itself to meet the new demand can not. You need to change the value system in the production of products, brands need to produce, luxury products.

Another discrepancy is related to the apathy of the younger generation how to socialist ideas in general, and to the political struggle that is. In the first place need to increase their personal wealth. While this makes a play for the Chinese government, but in the long term can lead to the idea that, until now intensively working on the revival of China, may fall. The idea is that the success of China's explained by the fact that, unlike many countries it has national idea — a revival of China and the revival of the greatness of Chinese civilization. And in the name of this they are willing to sacrifice much.

From here there is, perhaps, the most powerful hitch for the fifth generation — a growth of Han nationalism. Unfortunately, this trend is the place to be and explains it very simply. In 1-x, a harsh economic growth. In-2, is growing up generation, which is not beheld burdens, it beheld only the growth in another way it is for China itself is not. And this generation through 5-10-15 years will sformirovyvaetsya policy. Also contributes to the growth of nationalism web where there is a mass of very hard expressions and publications on the topic related to the Han nationalism. There is a feeling that the younger generation, including and fifth generation, does not believe that the state can solve the question means.

At the moment the decisive means of throwing in huge amounts of money, after the events of 2009 was adopted by the special plan of CPC Central Committee on the situation in Xinjiang. In the next 10 years in Xinjiang to invest 100 billion dollars is a lot of money. It is not enough that all national regions live off the central budget subsidies, but more specifically in their funds are invested. Here's the younger generation does not agree with this. And this is difficult to do something in the criteria of the weakening of ideological work. China is not going to change their concept of district-national autonomy, and from my point of view, the difficulty of specifically incorporated in it. Because conflicts are inevitable and will be hard to decide something.

Another discrepancy, which reads Hu Jintao at the congress, it necessitates a certain political liberalization, ie political reforms. This does not mean that political reform in China has not been evaluated. And will be conducted, but rather neatly, following the principle of "do not need to crush an old house without building a new one." They first try to build the structure. In fact, everything is written in the Constitution, there is a representative democracy. Moreover, in 2008, appeared on the web so-called "Charter 2008", written by the opposition. It was removed from the Web very quickly. This Charter was what the opposition wants. For four years, all the wishes of the opposition have been fulfilled. That is, Management is able to listen — adopted appropriate laws, regulations of the party. But this is not enough, you need to move on, to create any more legislative framework for political reform. This, too, is done, the program was proposed reforms Hu Jintao at the Congress, for the first time since 1987.

For me, democracy — is the rule of law for all without exception. Call at least one government, where it is. If a culture of respect of the law, then it increases the political culture. Then we can do something. To build a democratic society without civilian society — is a fantasy. And for this it is necessary that people have learned to take advantage of their rights. It is made in China, and: through People's Congress, through its control over the activities of local government, the party, through the creation of a system to combat corruption, etc.

With regard to foreign policy, it is changed for the reason that China has become stronger army rearmed, ambitions have grown. The policy change markedly and the behavior of Chinese diplomats. Policy will become tougher, and this, too, said at the 18th Congress: they will not allow any encroachments on its sovereignty, national interests and defend them in a very harsh manner.

But for China, the world's conflicts are not any fun. China — an export-oriented country, the other side of that is that it is not a lot of resources. She could earn something in the war, but hurt no resources. During the war, nobody wants to be the Chinese products — iPhones, toys. China is not interested in the conflict, and therefore will continue its policy of harmonious world.

One can imagine that foreign policy China will be somewhat stiffer, but with the dominance of "myagenkoy force." In the past year, the VI Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, dedicated to the culture. The decision of the plenum has been registered, you need to promote Chinese culture to the outside, to conquer the world through culture. This does not mean that China will turn into a global power like t
he United States. For this purpose there limiters: China has no idea on the importance of equal liberal democracy. World socialist values "had enough."

To be a global power, it is necessary to have a mechanism that would allow these values to convey to different corners of the world. How many of those present read Chinese books, watching Chinese movies? In China, there is no Hollywood, so it is very hard to get across.

On what will be built China's foreign policy?

1. Without entering into a direct conflict with the U.S., and even working with them, to try to make conditions conducive to reduce the level and impact of the U.S. presence in the region that is home to China's interests. First, it's Asia-Pacific and Central Asia. In these regions, the competitiveness between China and the U.S. will be strong.

2. Supporting the Russian Federation has the illusion that the role of first violin in the former Soviet space assigned to it, to strengthen the economic, political and, if possible, military ties with the CIS countries in general and the Central Asian states — viz. Since 1997, Central Asia is seen as a strategic hinterland of China, and this concept will not be changed.

3. Evenly forms the positive image of China and the style of a reliable political and economic partner in the minds of the elites and the population of different regions of the world, which is pretty intense in different ways: investments, grants, loans.

With respect to Kazakhstan and other neighbors of China has the concept of "peripheral diplomacy." There is another concept — a secured, peaceful and peaceful neighbor. In this concept, we will evolve with China.

In general, China is much more profitable to continue the policy of harmonious world.

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