Certainly, no one even earlier to think about it but could not. For example, what would be pronounced the man which at first, began to talk about the fact that the spring in the Arab world not only start strong political unrest, but still he will lose his own 2-longest available autocrats, that the United Nations (UN) approve military intervention in the affairs of Muslim countries under administered by the U.S. that will shake the tsunami's second largest economic power in the world. Such a person would be dubbed a pessimist, a deceiver, which states that may be only in his dreams. And all this happened, we just entered the year 2011. Assign significance to these events is not their surprise, as a permanent part of human life, and those deepest configuration, because of which it seems that we have before us a real moment in history.
The first and more necessary in the middle of the unpredictable are the uprisings in the Arab world. Revolution for Near East — not a new thing too far. Almost every second there ruler came to power in connection with the coup. But this time it happened in a different way: the outcome was spontaneous; virtually limitless information about the revolt spread through social networks, on mobile, and, apparently, the actions were not caused by any of certain political groups, as well as it should, no real organization had not. For decades, North African Arabs put up and the population of the Persian Gulf to the existence of such states in which democracy, if there was, it was less than a fig leaf for presidents and governors, enabling them without problems receive 99%-s' ratings of praise. All benefit from at least some economic growth and oil revenues received family of rulers and they themselves could unconditionally suppress dissent in his own country. Partially povinet in this neo-colonialism. Western governments have supported these regimes in the Gulf, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, which under normal rules of progress have long had to go to the historical dustbin of several generations back. But it was not profitable to Western governments, because in these areas of focus considerable supplies of oil, and the means and resources.
This is a mind-blowing features inherent in current events. They are connected voedinyzhdy common task — not to seek any specific action, and to change the attitude to class and age group, sluggish from corruption and economic and social ridicule. They crave freedom, but first want to get rid of the currently available peremptory cultures that are very underestimated horizons and thus restrict their activities. Unemployment among young people — one of the main grievances of the population.
The statistics they say that virtually any country, in what are now undergoing trial motion, can brag that 35 — 40% of the population — are young people younger than 25 years old, but quite often the unemployment rate of young people seeking 20%. This problem concerns not only the Arab states, for example, in Europe the situation is even more extremal.
Here so you can add many other causes of disturbance, for example, increasing urbanization, even in countries with the small amount of the population. Earlier, in particular in Asia, there have been demonstrations be landless and hungry. These riots were strong and powerful, because people could in a very small gap of time is rapidly gather in the squares, luring sending SMS messages.
Another distinguishing feature that makes these revolts are so specific and unusual in the Arab context, it is quite an important role in the middle will give the protesters. Very often journalists snatching away of the protesting crowd of more active participants and sensual, and they often are specifically ladies, with different ages. Maybe this is done to verbovaniya as much attention to the importance and significance of events. The articulation of the camera — not an indication of the expansion of human capabilities and the female half of the population. But, of course, education, particularly in the formally secular countries like Egypt, Tunisia or Shiite Iran, training a new generation of educated ladies, with your own eyes on politics and society.
Just a tremendous surprise to those movements for the Middle East "experts" rate was the overthrow of the 2-rulers Near East — Egyptian President Mubarak and Ben Ali in Tunisia, through peaceful demonstrations. It came within just a few weeks after the first characters of the revitalization of dissent and virtually without a fight. There are many allusions to various assumptions as to why it happened in those countries, but it has not happened in Libya, Bahrain, Yemen. Oil is one of those circumstances. Property which it brings into the country, and which accumulates rulers, perhaps, makes it more affordable to protect itself from the possibility of change. It is at this point is trying to do in Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries. Tunisia and Egypt have had countless population, but it would be a shame as it sounds, do not have adequate supplies of minerals such as oil and gas. These countries lacked the resources that meet the needs of the population numbers are so high, and when commodity prices began to rise, the prices soared essentials.
There is another reason — the army. First, did Colonel Gaddafi came to power by military coup, is the neutralization of the armed forces, depriving them of their guns and earnings. In addition, he made a small group of well-armed and well-paid special purpose forces, which were to be concentrated only around it. Specifically, it gave him the confidence and the advantage while before making a decision on the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya, but it also made it for now vulnerable to air strikes.
On the other hand, in Tunisia and Egypt, the army is the most important and neutral role in the past. When a raging mass of demonstrators could not cope special security services of Ben Ali and Mubarak, they had to call for help of the army. And, as with the collapse of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe, the police and the armed forces could not shoot his own native people, they determined the fate of the regime of government. It will also be a prerequisite for regime change in Yemen, because the generals huge opponents kills civilian officials.
And you are likely to be right, if on the basis of this particular type of analysis will make the assumption that the wave of riots and demonstrations in the end came to nothing and it is not followed for any configuration that the army would be for the power scheme of recent years, and not future that the inhibition trial motions in Bahrain become commonplace rather than the exception to the rule that Middle Eastern experts declare the rightness of their own prophecies that Arabic the world will never change. However, at this point, no one can be sure of the results. And such analyzes do not capture the brain. Arabic people rose up in the form of peaceful protest. People have said that they want to change and do not want to live anymore past. But like everything is not completed, the future policy in the Arab world, and discuss future will no longer be like previously. Even more than that, because this time the Arabs themselves and act for themselves. It must be such a riot-type occurred for the first time in more than half a century, the perturbation of which (at least some, not counting demonstrated cornered Gaddafi) is directed at all against the imperialist West and America. Israel has also avoided the public prosecution of all failures, though, and his representatives, together with the no
w exposed to shame Tony Blair, and then go on to say that the Muslim League had no business in politics and more than that it can not go to them, not looking at that Israel itself is quite a lot of religious extremists who were sitting in their own and their government are part of the ruling coalition. (Muslim League — there is a figure of speech, having in mind the political group that was based in the 1906, she led the movement for the division of British India and the formation of a Muslim country — approx. Trans.) This is the Arab movement, acting with tremendous courage, and it was set in motion by none other than the Arabs themselves. It had completely no relation to the West, of course, except for Libya. It is impossible to overestimate the undeniable, the potential importance of this for the world, in which the Middle East has always taken to be the source of irreversible and irreparable harm.
It is not necessary, of course, underestimate the global response to these uprisings, specifically on their impact. At the time of a military intervention in Libya begins to fall to disputes which are the subject of military targets of the initial phase of recovery Benghazi, it is not difficult and just remain a cynic in matters of the relation to the actions themselves and about the motivation of those who produce these acts . All this may have been completely incomprehensible turmoil could end very unnecessary disagreements between the allies. But the fact remains that the Western world is now waiting for Arab support and working through the United Nations, which is even more fundamental. Early in the year, the United Nations Institute was a one hundred percent aloof from global processes and lost authority institution, because at that time, U.S. President Barack Obama has pursued only their own goals and whole rest of the world the United Nations for the most part ignored.
But really believe occurred globally brand new, international era of cooperation, it would, of course, very trusting. For some reason, Colonel Gaddafi has a very rare quality — all fully connect voedinyzhdy against himself. His acts were so unusual, selfish, eccentric, only Zimbabwe uneven breathing for him, well, that by completely trivial reason — with the support of his party. And when it comes to Yemen, Bahrain or any other country, such a combination of events is unlikely to be the case. But because of that we should not be blind to the fact that the United States now had to be almost reluctant favorite of the whole process of intervention from the West, that the support of the Arabs did it entirely plausible intervention, and that once again the United Nations, so as well as it was in the cool days of the war, should be treated as something based on that international cooperation should and will be built.
If half of all the surprises, facing the world in the ongoing year, accounted for the uprising in the middle of the Arab world, it is not in vain. These actions have shown the world is very close to everything, especially the fact that Arab citizens in general, in principle, can arise and that it has absolutely no relationship with the West. No one implied that the protesters will seek citizens of success so quickly, and even deposed 2-ruling autocrats, it's all going to happen spontaneously, and will be organized, thanks to the mobile phone, rather than any political group that the result of all these events is the epitome joint Muslim-Western intervention, and that will again be demanded UN sanctions.
We can not say about the other important event, and specifically of strongest earthquake and ensuing tsunami in the country of the rising sun. There is nothing new in this outbreak there. Japan, which is located in the most earthquake-prone zone for decades preparing for tsunamis and earthquakes, has introduced the most highest standards of safety in the construction and building of the coastal marine barriers. But the great strength of the elements has caused such a sudden powerful destructive nature, the waves just overran installed fences, washing away everything in its path, resulting in a large and nuclear crisis. Himself the fact that it's happened to the state, so long and painstakingly prepared for such a situation, forced whole world immediately look at the situation in his country. Although the crisis and was replaced with the first of the news bulletins around the programm Libya, we can not state that it ended. Its development continues. The more disk imaging we get, the more we return to the old dilemmas — ignoring the warnings of security systems, covering up the real and frightening scale problems, up to that time, until everything explodes. For the Japanese themselves these consequences rather in terms of their confidence in the government and business. For other countries is important to emphasize the portents and prophecies that the threat Meltdown when it is implemented, will result in consequences for human health, the environment and food products.
Other prerequisites, proclaiming our time necessary historical events are only guesses. Usually, historical actions have the extraordinary significance when, after they followed the global configuration. In times of economic crisis of 2007-2009 had unlimited number of predictions that is the end of the era of capitalism and, coupled with this, the beginning of a new period of hegemony of China and India, the beginning of a new world constrained by climate change. These projections are, of course, were wrong. Measures to address the banking crisis and the large debts in the West, is not much different from the measures often used previously. The destruction of capitalism did not work and the government, and consumers actually behave, as well as before the crisis.
But, do not be such that crises of this magnitude did without change. Actions occurring in the Arab world and in the land of the rising sun, are partly sudden and unique to themselves. Look at the list of complaints — the corruption that leads to the enrichment of a small number of people and to the ruin of others, the political system, the loss of confidence of the population, industrial solutions, unable to cope with the disaster. It's pretty common complaint for most of the world.
Since the main feature, the events taking place today is their unpredictability, you should not make predictions and prophecies about what they will end, because we are not even getting close to this knowledge. But it can be concluded that our history was set in motion and we are only at the very beginning.