The Israeli-Palestinian conflict for more than 60 years, its age, even by historical standards. Israel dreams of security, and Palestine — its existence. Both objectives are valid, only the implementation of both at once is not possible. What can we expect in the near future?
Hardly a solution to this conflict, the forces of diplomacy will happen in the near future, according to experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The obstacles to this is on both sides. Most of the population of Israel wished to end the conflict, but the Israelis do not believe that to solve this problem only by diplomacy will not work. In addition, the option of a "Palestinian state", which is considered the Israelis niskolechko not satisfy the desires of the Palestinians. The same lack of faith in diplomacy and endless lethargy of all the diplomatic process which still rises to the agreements reached in Oslo in 1993, observed in Palestine. During those long 18 years have not produced significant results in the public affairs of the country. At the same time, the management of Palestine fragmented, both sides have a pretty strong favorites, which could reach the resolution of the conflict with Israel, even in this case, when desired by both parties.
Hard to talk about the general productivity of the diplomatic process. For the United States, namely, there is a more fundamental problem in the Middle East, Washington weary of protracted conflict, and of the current plan for resolving the conflict by diplomatic does not. The other players of international arena, which might take for work to reconcile the parties, no. Because you can only read about containing the conflict, rather than its successful resolution.
And yet, the head of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas addresses the next steps, namely, he handed the UN Secretary General for membership in the United Nations. Perhaps he thought that the attempt to make conflict for international debate, the emergence of new players in the game, should enhance the ability of Palestine and strengthen its position in the negotiations. For the same reason previously taken samples to bring to resolution of the conflict the EU, Turkey and other possible mediators. Past tests, especially U.S. mediation, only disappointed. So all hopes are pinned on the strengthening of the position in the negotiations with Israel by obtaining membership in the UN.
In Palestine, pretty and internal problems. Management controls only the West-sparing Jordan, with all this inside him, too, there is no agreement. The real power in the Gaza Strip has only Hamas. In applying for membership in the UN, Mahmoud Abbas did not coordinate their actions with Hamas, whose members do not believe in the possibility of the diplomatic resolution of the conflict. Earlier, Abbas sought to restore the unity of the Palestinians in the middle of trying to make a dialogue with Hamas, but at this point it becomes clear that the other players on the world stage will react this negatively, respectively, out of the question to become a member of the UN, and can not be. According to experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Abbas' position in the middle of the Palestinians are stronger than the position of Hamas, but if his trial internationalization of the conflict will not bring tangible fruits, the situation may change at the back.
For the global society question the legitimacy of power in Palestine even more complicated. It is clear that the representatives of one of the parties can not read the name of all the people. But still as a negotiator wants to create a world society that the Palestinian National Authority, which is in control of the West saved, not Hamas.
Oslo agreement signed in 1993 is the third organization — the Palestine Liberation Organization. So Makarov, it is not clear who exactly has the right to act in the international arena on behalf of all Palestinians. This can be a significant argument by the Israelis in case of failure of the negotiations.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict for more than 60 years. And the end of it yet to be seen. His position any party imposing argue, for all that Israel is based on the history of the Jewish people.
The essence of the argument boils down to the Israeli side that endured suffering and attachment of Jews to own land — sufficient grounds for having your own country and homeland security Protz. Hard to deny the logic of this argument, but for the Palestinians, they do not look convincing. The Palestinians believe that Israel has created in the land seized from them.
In his speech Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed the view that a peaceful end to the conflict may be, except that the government, which may appear when a criterion expressed by them, the Palestinians are unlikely to consider beyond.
Israelis difficult to understand the Palestinians, as the representatives of the Palestinian people in their own utterances sometimes deny any Jewish connection to the land, in other words for Palestinian recognition of Israel's borders and the renunciation of their own historical rights. There is another part of the explanation. Over the past sixty-three years of violent conflict judgments security for the Israelis have become the main value, relegating to second plan territorial compromises. After all, Israel is in a very unstable and volatile region, therefore, must be a strong state that has all the ability to defend themselves.
Still unresolved is the question of refugees. Placed the figure of 6 million exiles contains the grandchildren of those who fled their homeland during the war of 1948. Palestinians they say about the "right of return", which causes numerous controversies. Most of the people who had to leave in 1948, is no longer alive it is legitimate to call them descendants of refugees? Where have the right to return these people? In Palestine in general or to their former homes? Whether for Israeli citizenship if the refugees had previously lived in the area, which is now controlled by him? Not clear situation with those who do not want to leave the current location of residence.
The situation is complicated by the fact that all discussions are conducted in a very sensual level. None of the states do not actually think about what will turn the "right of return" in practice. For a quick solution of the problem will not occur.
A look at the positions taken by other players international arena regarding the conflict in Israel and Palestine.
At present, Washington has no real plan for the settlement of the problem diplomatic means, well, the attention of the United States at this time focused on the other dilemmas. But remember that during his own campaign Barack Obama spoke in support of Palestinian independence, a year earlier, he reiterated his position, speaking at the United Nations. So why at the moment America is ready to use the veto in the Security Council in this case would be considered for recognition of Palestine a UN member?
Experts at the Carnegie Endowment think that there are three options explanations of what is happening. In-1's, first of Obama's own presidential tried to fight for public opinion Israelis that the United States lost. Netanyahu was able to show himself the protector of topical interests of Israel and Obama — aggressive towards Israel. In this situation, Washington can not risk a harsh confrontation.
we recall that the United States is always very jealous of mediation efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its internationalization, because Obama is trying to prevent the consideration of the UN. America loves to play a major role, not allowing the other actors.
Third reason has to do with the internal political situation in the United States. It is possible that during the recent election campaign, the issue may appear on the feeble support of Obama's allies.
The Arab countries
In the middle of Arab States, there are two different points of view on the situation. First world, for the most part it belongs to Favorites Arab States, is that the settlement of the conflict on the principle of "two states" — the best option to address the issue.
Alignment of the public majority of Near East and North Africa is not always contrary to the first opinion, but also has its issues. Public opinion in accordance with the fact that the Palestinians are denied the fact of what they are entitled to. In particular, such a worldview strongly expressed in acts of violence, such as the Israeli military operation in Gaza, held in December 2008.
In other words, the entire Arab world is torn between a desire to support the Palestinians and an end to the conflict. That's just the situation for the association of these goals is not the most suitable. Because finding the mediators in the conflict in the middle of Arab States is not likely. In all the Arab countries at the moment difficult domestic political prepyadstviya maybe a more active role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from the Arab states will start when the internal disturbances subside.
What can we expect from the upcoming situation in Palestine?
Israelis are willing to maintain the status quo. The Palestinians are not ready to act because of internal divisions. The settlement of the conflict continues to be in limbo. Most likely, this situation will continue for a long time — a few months, maybe years, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. What will end the lull before the storm, it is difficult to imagine.