The site registered in Vilnius Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies published the results of a national survey conducted in December 2010. Sociologists state: the economic wellbeing of the Belarusians after the 2006 elections has deteriorated, were uneasy relationship with power. Do the math, that the election of Lukashenko 51.1% of the respondents voted in second place — Nekljaev (8.3%), the third — Sannikov (6.1%).
As follows from the ticker on the website of the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, "the real results of the presidential election — the sensational results of a survey NISEPI."
Head of the Institute, Professor Oleg Manayeu"On the website all the documents posted by: representativeness, the voters, to organize themselves polls. No one has ever released to the public: no "exit polstery." No one has ever … A NISEPI set. You just read and analyze, it is written. "
The report states that voted for Lukashenko 51.1%, and all other opponents combined received 28.4%. Voted against all 5.1% of respondents did not want to answer the question of 3.8%.
Sociologist Sergei Nikolyuk says that even before the election of 2010, when he was asked what would happen answered these results will be somewhere in-between the results obtained in the presidential elections in 2001 and 2006 elections. And so it was, because, according to Nikolyuk, the election results are never derivatives:
"They generally do not depend on some random factors," trick "in the election campaign. They depend in general on the state of the Belarusian economy and the state of the Belarusian economy largely determines the state of the Belarusian society. Therefore, all of the indicators that capture the state of society, showed that the well-being of society a little better than in 2001, but did not quite live up to the state in 2006. And so it turned out. Of miracles do not happen here. "
The structure of the Belarusian electorate does not change significantly. Volume, so to speak, Opposition base about the same, I am sure sociologist Sergei Nikolyuk:
"That's why I always say, if appoint a candidate for the presidency, for example, my wife, she will bring the same percentage of votes. If there are several candidates, the percentage of total votes will be the same, but the distribution of votes in will depend on which of them is more than the opposition, who actively leads his campaign. Increasingly led her lord Nekljaev. What has been fixed long ago. And what happened in the end. Only in this way. "
According NISEPI, March 19, 2006 Lukashenko received 63.1% of votes of the votes cast, and three of his opponents — 30.3%. Thus, According to the poll NISEPI, Lukashenko won the election again and, in principle, could do without the "redistribution" 1 million 350 thousand votes and mass arrests. NISEPI states that the figures often experienced as redundant questions and multilateral cross-analysis.