Inside the elite there is some recognition that a political band needs more abundance to reflect the hopes and aspirations of the growing middle class and let the mood for a good channel dissent, writes "Russia Watchers".
This is the essence of "managed democracy", though here it must be said more precisely, in order to give tribute to the direction of the vector — a "managed democracy." We are not talking about any large configurations. 10% reduction in the number of seats in the Duma "United Russia", her errant most meaningful part in a new composition of the parliament, the emergence of several new voices have become a massive signal, reflecting the trend of social and political development in the direction of greater pluralism. But the elite is spreading in the views of the urgency of these processes. The interests of the coming and taking care of personal status and career often takes precedence over the duration of the stimulus in the fight for the survival of the elite. The party "United Russia", which became a real monster of unbridled ambition and greed, but hard to keep under control, and virtually impossible to stop.
To be able to manage these political diversity, Prokhorov offered to revive the party "just cause", which to this day is a bad project and the successor of the displaced to the margins of the Union of Right Forces (SPS). Everything seemed to be simple and easy. In Russia, the right wing is often associated with liberalism and Western thoughts. But in the case of the SPS and "Just Cause" is most important liberalism in the service of a huge business. As an oligarch Prokhorov no longer be able to turn away from this style. Because of its electoral chances could be limited to just 10-15 percent of maximum.
In addition, the majority of Russians voted for the left or for the center, up to now facing the frustration of the right reforms and privatization of the 90's, as shown in the result of this test for illicit enrichment. Because competitiveness on the right wing will allow the "United Russia" to take even more populist and left-wing position, providing the party a dominant position in the medium term. Because the current actions, and specifically Prokhorov's resignation from the post of party favorite, came as a surprise. Looking back, we can distinguish three main prerequisites here.
In-1's as big business and managing money empire, Prokhorov is not the man who compromises — not inside the party he headed, nor in a relationship with 'managers of democratization ", which appeared at the recollection that they were" hired "him for the implementation of the new party's own project. His principle of "do it my way or scram." Here Prokhorov and rolled.
In-2, Prokhorov was not limited to the usual electorate from the right. It said a disgruntled academics and the working class, who seek out the strong favorite, able to make their career skills. In other words, he got into the garden of "United Russia". In addition in order to attract protest votes, Prokhorov has used the strategy of the opposition, claiming pressure from regional authorities and the Kremlin functionaries to strengthen its own self-contained style of politics. As a result, "the managers of democratization" feel that they are losing control of their project. B-3, these "managers democratization" would be special prerequisites to feel more invincible than ever. The center of these "managers" is the department of the presidential administration on domestic policy. His work was coordinated by the deputy head of the presidential administration and the chief ideologue Vladislav Surkov, Putin's stability. While president states that the liberalization policies, these men are doing the job of keeping the stained "stability" in most cases, based on the principle of exigency. I have the recollection is that the media in a meaningful way preomnazhayut, speaking of telephone justice, media censorship and black lists. And yet, when these things happen, their legs grow out of this particular department. What more fundamentally, this "control democracy" implies an exceptional influence on decision-making of appointments to political office. Hence the strong ties between the Kremlin Surkov's team and the party "United Russia". Such a political system is intended, services, patronage and personal envy distract virtually at least some of the common goal of moderate political liberalization. Although the president has a reasonable goal — to "blow away" the "United Russia" on any 10% of these people due to the central apparatus of the party, with governors and mayors will ensure that they are working on the personal interests of the ruling elite rather than the president. President very very busy outside of politics and promote their own programs from modernization to find out what is conceived to his subordinates. Communication is via the main Surkov.
Putin's All-Russia People's Front was an attempt by the creation of a parallel structure of political appointments in the party "United Russia". Putin must have pinned the hopes that he could set up a system of patronage against the other, and he will make the control over them as the supreme judge. But after the recent "primaries" became evident that much of the front of the few candidates were able to obtain the right to be elected. Soon after that parallel front headquarters was closed, saying that his task is complete. It was a complete failure. Edinorossky Giant defeated. When a week or so back Medvedev declared now former manager of domestic policy Oleg Govorun for the post of presidential envoy to the Central Federal environment vacant position is not a new man took Medvedev and Deputy Govorun Konstantin Kostin, who is also a protégé of Surkov. Both of them were engaged in public relations at the bank Khodorkovsky "Menatep", and Costin's wife took the witness in the case against Nevzlin. Further confirmation of the above links will be that Costin was the deputy chairman of the executive committee of the "United Russia" and responsible for the rebranding of its youth movement.
Apparently, already for the next day after increasing his control Kostin has felt himself invincible. There was simply perfect time to force this annoying Prokhorov to obey, and if it does not break, then again to take the power into their hands over the "Just Cause". Came second. Many members of the party were just happy to comply. They held a parallel conference, has acquired a fully legitimate character due to the presence on it of control of the Kremlin and the Ministry of Justice, and chose themselves to the main office. Now all these apparatchiks can only try to keep the 20 million dollars that Prokhorov allocated to the polls. To be fair to say that Prokhorov with his business management style alienated many members of the party. So after all, as usual, or these "managers democracy" all the same overdone?
Of course, in the coming weeks and months, the value of the current events will try to belittle. Businessman Prokhorov not born for politics. He missed a chance to own. Acting alone for themselves, party "Just cause" did not have a chance. Want the best, came out as usual. Nothing is lost, except for the gullible desires.
ut all the same something lost. Lost the ability to monitor social change in the political abundance: the new names on the ballot, the new party in the parliament. The elite needs such abundance, so that was a steam release valve for discontent after the election, when it is necessary to undertake an unpopular social reforms. Topics more, that the other party project party "Fair Russia" leftist actually stopped. Perhaps, the argument for all this was the fact that her death will not have a special impact on the abundance of political as well as on the right wing of the party will be a range of "just cause." But now the Kremlin and the country turned up empty, with only the "United Russia", an old communist and good Zhirinovsky. For another 5 years! So that the gain of discontent and protests in society is guaranteed. Moreover, in the coming years, "United Russia" will play the role of lightning rod with the appearance of all grievances.
The present day was a complete failure with far-reaching consequences, and Medvedev and Putin should be aware of this. Prokhorov claimed the audience and retired Surkov. But what are they able to do? What zahochut do?
Medvedev's office twitters about the meeting with Nazarbayev on the Customs Union. Apparently, Medvedev decided to signal that he has a lot of Presidential Affairs. At the same time, he must realize that the present action could justify the failure and weakness of his numerous speeches for political freedoms. And not even because of what happened, but mainly because of the fact that at the moment can not occur: increased pluralism in Parliament, real tangible achievements in his first term, as well as the tools to provide a second term.
Without the approval of the political elite, without a system designed for and patronage, without these "managers of democracy" and the "United Russia" Medvedev and Putin will be very hard to re-election. Political stability must be completed. Medvedev is very cautious, afraid to tackle the bold act. And Putin will not undermine their greatest achievements. It is engaged in judo. There have been guesses that Putin has inspired Khodorkovsky idea seemed tycoon wins, and he painstakingly planned their moves. Medvedev may follow the example of his own mentor. As with social reforms, higher taxes, tariffs for electricity and almost everything else is completely possible that this issue is postponed until after the election. It is folly to make predictions. Especially when it comes to Russian politics. What is written below is the prose of life.
Without interfering openly in the conflict, Medvedev will provide for himself the presidential nomination. After the election, he will take advantage of widespread disappointment in the electoral process, to get rid of Surkov and presidential administration will take under his control. Putin government has not come back. More liberal prime minister will be tasked to conduct the unpopular social reforms. Putin will use vacuum left after Surkov, that is one hundred percent to take control of their own "United Russia", including its parliamentary majority, and then will use it to smooth out the sharp edges of a social reform. It will take 6 years, it is time for new elections, and Putin as before will be enjoying the most popular politician in the country.