Now, the answer live questions from Russians, Vladimir Putin began his campaign. First conversation, he called to come to the presidential election in March. These words were addressed first to the 40% of voters who ignored the parliamentary elections. Specifically, through this part of the electorate presidential candidate wants to strengthen its position, very shaky in December. Referring to protests that swept across the country and the most massive in recent years, the protest at Bolotnaya Square, a prime characteristic manner, he said that even happy about it: "The fact that people express their point of view — is completely normal thing when all act within the law. I beheld, of course, on the screens of tele young people active in the main, their positions clearly and correctly defined, and it's fun. If this is the result of the "Putin regime" that is fine. There is nothing such, I do not see the beyond. " Follow-up questions concerning election fraud began to annoy premiere, and soon changed the subject. But it was clear that the March re-examination of his worries.
Whether Putin will once again win the support of an absolute majority of voters?
Questions of "joint venture" The Deputy Director of the Center for Current Politics Alexander Shatila
"SP": — Now, as shown by the election, the ruling party visibly passed the position. Does the result of "United Russia", and that her favorite Vladimir Putin should expect a more moderate public support in the presidential election in March?
— At the moment, Vladimir Putin remains in a favorite of our political system. He has absolute legitimacy, since no one reasonably has not denied its individual ratings. Coupled with the fact against Fishing season Now is individual advocacy campaign to delegitimize it. Moreover, on the one hand it is a lot of pressure from outside, from outside influence centers of the West, which has long been Putin stands across the road. On the other hand, it were pressing the internal competitor. Including those who are considered among the closest associates of the prime minister. As I see it, there are unfavorable for the Russian favorite impulses from the "Triple Alliance": brothers Rotenberg, Kovalchuk, and Gennady Timchenko. Some representatives of the current elite, namely, open media community turned its back on Fishing season, certain part of the creative intelligentsia also began to drift toward the opposition. In this situation, the fight "on two fronts" almost everything is dependent on Putin himself, of how he will kill an unfavorable trend, identify prospects for the country's development and to radical renewal, at least hard to say about it. For Putin segodnyaschy presidential race seems to be very complicated. Almost all will depend on what we hear now in his answers to the questions of Russians live.
"SP": — What, in your opinion, Putin has remained reserves in order to reverse that situation unfavorable to him that we are now looking at?
— As polls show the unaffiliated public presentation, a significant part of the society is in a state of "people remain silent." This part has not yet determine, for the power it, or — against. It was only when the power is very hard greedy shows will — people start to oppose her. Because if Putin will inspire this kind of hovering electorate great idea to pick it up and mobilized, while he still has a chance to defeat in the first round. I think it is clear to Putin that his defeat would not only fatal to the regime, and for him personally.
"SP": — Why is Putin so fundamentally overcome specifically in the first round?
— If he gets less than 50 percent of the vote with a "first call", it will be a nice demonstration of the fact that he lost the support of much of Russian society, which he had before.
2nd time — even if he wins in the 2nd round, he will be tied by a network of treaties and obligations in respect of the elite groups, regional barons of big business. All of these groups can be and will support him in the 2nd round, but will try to get it exchanged for a number of prizes and guarantees. So makarom he will lose the political initiative. And the whole political system after 2000 lined up specifically for this kind of initiative of Putin.
If he wins the election in this situation — you can read about the downward mobility of his political activities, which, in practice, would be a disaster for the whole of the political system, they are done. In the medium term, it will fall.
"SP": — If the tendency of society to drift toward the opposition will continue to the end of February, it will be clear that without a second round can not do, whether Putin will go out to 'correct' the election results so that only one round?
— I stick to the principle: not caught — not a thief. So far, according to the data, which I have, "specific weight" of fraud in general the results of the Duma elections was not as great as it is trying at the moment to imagine. Another thing that was used extensively administrative resources. Almost all of this, by the way, was the result of completely impotent campaign of "United Russia". If Putin will impact — in contrast with the ruling party — the campaign, the chances of defeat in the first round, he will have a sufficiently high and no adjustment of the election results come in handy.
"SP": — In the last days many states that after the protest at Bolotnaya Square near us was born a new civilian society, which will be even more intense influence on power. Do you share this view?
— I would not correlated those who took part in the protest rally on Bolotnaya Square in civilian society as a whole. Protesters showed demonstrative anger towards the government. But I think that passion and radicalism of their mottos now divides absolute menshistvo Russians. It is necessary to take into account the fact that at that meeting rather weakly expressed for themselves the main forces of opposition Socialist Revolutionaries, Communists and the Liberal Democrats. Although, logically, exactly they were first to protest against electoral fraud. And we have seen in the Swamp of politicians and public figures of the past, which almost did not participate in the election campaign. There is a concept of "politically screaming minority." Specifically, this minority could mobilize, smelt in certain forms that spontaneous protest and emotions experienced by some voters, and the other day after the election.
In general, the first 90 protests were more significant, tough. I think the current situation on the eve of New Year prazdnichkom stabilized and if the opposition does not get to make some sverhryvka in the last week of December, the whole expression of protest will go down.
Sergei Belanovsky, a sociologist
"SP": — Sergey, Putin's rating will raise a "straight line" on TV?
— In the dynamics involved in Putin's rating as the fundamental reasons that superficial PR campaigns, such as the "straight line", no matter what influence they can not. Can this be considered the start of the presidential campaign of Putin? Certainly, yes. Though, certainly, can be considered as the start of an exchange move.
"SP": — What's going on with the popularity of Putin, can get to the second round?
— It depends
not on reason but on the composition of the other presidential candidates. Here the question of whether to break the least number of Kremlin-controlled people. And another question: how the population will vote for the other favorites. Are people ready to vote in the presidential election — even out of protest — for example, for Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky?
Now there is a drop in the rating, loss of confidence, the rise of negative sentiment individually with Putin — and, perhaps, to the whole system of available power. This fall indisputable, and, I think, turning back will be gone.
But will the second round or not — this is a more significant issue. Since we are not yet fully understood the composition of the other candidates. And even more fundamentally — we are unclear political attitudes of people towards them in the criteria for choosing the limited aggressively. Because if it comes before the second round, I can not judge.
"SP": — What do you think is unsafe than the second round for Putin?
— Surely, 2 things. The second candidate could get very many protest votes. Maybe not all — relatively speaking, Prokhorov's supporters, maybe they will not vote for Zyuganov — but with some coefficient protest votes are distributed across all sectors of the electorate. They are the ones who are willing to vote for at least some — just not for Putin.
I'm not ready to say that Putin could lose — now set at a known candidates. Surely, he will win the All-. But the second round will be an additional blow to the legitimacy of Putin. There are dynamics of trust, which decreases under the influence of the underlying causes, and that no one can change. But this process may be catalysed or inhibited — to use the chemical definition. I have a feeling that a lot of catalysts and inhibitors virtually none.
"SP": — If Putin will win the 2nd round, as it will weaken politically? This would mean that the vertical fails maintained in its current form, and will begin to break down?
— I think it will be not much depend on whether he wins in the first round or in the 2nd — in a sense, it Short term, non-fundamental factors. And then … Until now, we talk about the vote and the electorate. Here is a question for the elites.
Speak out like this: the revolution, even peaceful — a very complicated social process, which is involved in a lot of parts. Not only the candidates and some people, but by the same elite. And in a relationship with the elites will all depend on how Putin would own the resources necessary to keep the elite in obedience. This, on the one hand, the funds are distributed through the center of the other — the threat of criminal cases if or something worse.
Basically, when things go wrong, there are people — is from the elite — that or feel backed into a corner, or deeply offended as Khodorkovsky. They are not afraid to speak against the government, and start counterplay — first secretly, quietly.
A second factor — such as the mood of the elite will vserasprostranennymi. If it's one person — it is clear he does not make a fighter. But if Such sentiments spread — horrors, or understanding of the need that power you need to change — if the mood will bring to the fact that the elite will start to build coalitions … It's just a mortal threat to the existing regime.
This kind of coalition can be quite hard to remove at least some of the president. Most likely, plausible ways, for which, nevertheless, will face the real power and the real dangers of which we can not fully aware of it. Khrushchev is removed — and took a shot, and all. I think in the case of Putin analogy with Khrushchev — is very close.
"SP": — want to go back a step back, at the time of the presidential election. Do you think there will be fraud on their strengths?
— This is also a fascinating question. On the one hand, the government has the habit and long established ways and it all worked until the next time. And on the other — opposition to grow very much, and the system has a link from which strongly depends much.
I mean the chairmen of election commissions. I'm not saying that they are all but one of them in bad hands, may come within the criminal cases — despite the fact that the system will resist this development. I think these people are well aware of this danger. They will have to balance between the orders of his superiors and the degree of threat that emanates from what is usually called civilian society. I think that in any case they will act less confidently, and in which case will go back down. I think it affects the results of the vote.
"SP": — Some experts they say that at the moment taciturn men froze, not knowing him to vote for Putin or not. And the people we beheld at the Swamp — this is a "screaming minority"?
— It is hard to say what kind of people were in the Swamp — I was not there. It would be necessary, of course, these people to interview, but at the moment I simply do not have such ability. I am sure, agree that this is not quite the usual contingent — if associated with the population as a whole. Exactly like the Internet audience is not typical — at least, politically active part of it. Focus groups, collected from bloggers and focus groups of seemingly very similar composition of the population (age 25-35 years, higher education, the inhabitants of Moscow) essentially differ enormously.
Just inhabitants, even educated, even from Moscow, even the young — all the same basically similar to humans than to bloggers. Sociologists have long since become clear that there is a minority of educated middle-class type (it can be called differently), with settings of modernization, and countless more popular majority. Gleb Pavlovsky even called him "Putin majority".
So here are these two sectors behave very differently. At first, both sectors have supported Putin. It is significant that Putin's support even such characters as Yulia Latynina, Olga Romanova, who later defected to the position of the last rejection. The turning point in the attitude of both sectors occurred in a moment, and it's hard to say why exactly it happened. In both cases, there was a particular visible action that could dramatically change the position of the whole of the population.
Either way, formed a minority turned away from Putin about 2003. As for Putin's majority, it suffered even more — 10 years, until the summer of 2010. And again — do not ask me why, in February 2010, it was still loyal to the tandem, and in the summer of 2010, something went wrong. We recorded it in the focus groups did not believe, but after two weeks started to fall quantitative rating tandem with the public presentation of the Foundation.
"SP": — In other words, the "flashy minority" of the population really has no effect?
— It is "a screaming minority" may not be similar to the general population. But the population as a whole, now, even more evil against Putin than "screaming minority." I would, by the way, did not want to use the term. According to our data, just an advanced metropolitan middle class, especially the youth, talk about politics without much sense — making, but logical conclusions. They believe that things in the country things are very bad, and many added that the country needed to bring down.
For most, revealing a focus group in Yekaterinburg. This city — in a sense, common representative of the entire country. The situation is the reverse, there is a lot of strong feelings of evil against Putin, which are supported by some odd facts — from some of the scenes in the TV set, and ending with "next was a club, and it was closed," "wages are low and do not find a job," " pensioners in a terrible state. "
It turns out that at first Fishing season supported by all the lat
er it did not support the middle class. And after about seven years of his finished maintain the general population. And now, the negativity towards the government is the one that connects people voedinyzhdy on formal grounds.
This situation is likely temporary. When in power there will be a configuration, these segments will disperse and will split again: in many positions in their various interests. For example, retirees need to increase pensions, but it has had to increase the insurance tax. Here are troubled small and medium businesses.
Here and balance between those with 2 parts! This is no easy task, but perhaps this is the future task of the day. Since this day the collective Putin, as I understand it, wants to keep power at any cost. And the feeling that he wants at any cost, increases. This is a very bad moment. Yet Solzhenitsyn — albeit in a different context — asking if we should save at any cost anything, right up to life …