New Belarusian-Russian oil conflict, the statement by Minister Sergei Lavrov, who sided with the European requirements for official Minsk, hard tone Russian TV channels regarding the Belarusian situation — what are these steps? How do they compare with the position of the West on the outcome of the Belarusian elections? These are the questions of Liberty meet Russian political scientists — the director of the International Institute of Political Expertise Yevgeny Minchenko and director of the National Strategy Institute Mikhail Remizov.
Inhabitant: There are several components. The main component — Russia is crucial to solve some of their economic problems in Belarus, it applies to the privatization of Belarusian industry, and the conditions of its energy supplies, and the purchase of the actual, rather than declarative control over the Belarusian gas pipe. There are many questions that still have not been resolved. One of them — a serious obstacle to the entry of Russian companies on the Belarusian market. These problems persist despite the Union State and the Customs Union.
I believe that the Kremlin believes that Lukashenko has broken a friendly agreement reached on the eve of the election last year between him and Medvedev — that it will reduce the degree of anti-Russian rhetoric. But it did not, in fact, the opposite has happened worsening, as evidenced by the appearance on the television screens of the Belarusian Belarusian citizens to expose the Russian leadership, which allegedly inspired the recent conflicts in Belarus.
In addition, the actions of the Belarusian security forces in Russia are considered excessive and inappropriate severity of the situation.
Finally, given the very serious complication of relations between Belarus and the European Union, Lukashenko has nowhere to go, except for Russia, and his escapades as a surprise start to the Russian side. When the deteriorated relations with the EU, must improve relations with Russia. but it does not, on the contrary, there is a growing tension.
Remizov: I think that at the end of last year was no reconciliation, and the "water truce" before the elections in Belarus, with the signing of a package of documents on the Common Economic Space, which was important, at least for the prime minister of Russia, who was involved in this project personally and for which the demonstration that the project is developed, and it was a matter of private international reputation.
But this is the "water truce" was a short shelf-life. Not happen very hard scenario in the Belarusian-Russian relations — did not happen directly or indirectly non-recognition of the election results. And this is the foundation of the relationship for the future.
But after the scandals of the rally crackdown and sanctions against the leaders of the opposition Moscow wants to distance himself from his ally, does not want to be responsible for it in the eyes of the international community. And for Economic Affairs believes that the position of the Belarusian president has become weaker. And so you can try a new, more profitable for Russian corporate players balance.
Drakakhrust: Mr. Minchenko, is it possible in this situation, some sort of agreement between Russia and the EU may be steps towards Minsk agreed between Moscow and Brussels?
Inhabitant: I doubt very much on simplicity. There is no alternative to Lukashenko. Russia has not played actively in the elections, because any other candidate in this election would have been worse for Russia, even if he had a chance to win. This hysterical pro-Western opposition, which dominates in the Belarusian political space — it is for Russia would be worse Yushchenko. If these people come to power, it would not have held out for a long time, since they demonstrate the obvious inadequacy and unwillingness to understand what he wants people to talk with him in the same language both literally and figuratively.
Drakakhrust: Mr. Remizov, after the accession of Belarus in the "Eastern Partnership" in Russia many feared geopolitical turning Minsk. Now, this convergence has stopped. Or happy to Moscow, she can use it?
RemizovRussia is not an alternative form of European integration space. Those structures that are more or less real association, like the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space, Moscow sees as part of a "greater Europe" and stresses that it is not contrary to the prospects of the European and global integration. So by and large the game with the EU over the division of spheres of influence in fact. And now the Kremlin on the contrary tends to act in relation to Minsk in the wake of European politics.
Although not rule out that if Europe started growing involvement of Belarus in their case that Moscow would be cause for concern. While no such grounds.