Foreign experts continue to debate with Russian officials about the demographic prospects of the country. On the eve of the scientists of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development presented a report entitled "Disappearing world power", according to which the number of residents of the Russian Federation will shrink faster than the most pessimistic involves official forecast.
According to them, in 2030, the population of Russia will decrease by 15 million people. But in 2050 — even though the flow of migrants — Russia falls to 14th place on the number of people in the world, population decline will be almost 20%, in the country there will be no more than 116 million people, writes, "Nezavisimaya Gazeta".
In this case, most of the reduction will test cohort able-bodied people who are the backbone of the economy. By 2030, the country will also have fewer children, healthy workers and more elderly.
The main reasons for loss of working people, especially men — is a high mortality rate from cardiovascular disease as well as from disease and accidents related to alcohol abuse. Also "doing well", according to demographers, infectious diseases such as AIDS and tuberculosis.
Even the influx of migrants can not now reverse this trend. Although it is on migrants, the report their hopes, for example, to restore the remote corners of the country with harsh living conditions.
The report added that the baby boom and sharp — even if it happens suddenly, and — also in a sense, is dangerous because it will require more government spending on social services. And only then — if sufficient care and education — these potential employees will increase the wealth of the country.
Rosstat found a reason to be optimistic
Foreign analysts predicted a negative version of Russia's demographic development of all. Rosstat published his earlier projections of population change Russia in 2030. And the most negative outlook anticipated decline in population to about 128 million people — against the 125 million predicted by foreign experts. According to the latest data from Rosstat, the natural decline of the Russian population was in January-September 2011, 124.7 thousand people.
Nevertheless, the Health Ministry did find cause for optimism demographic. The head of the department Golikova reported that in September the country for the second time this year, recorded natural population growth, which in total amounted to about 15 thousand people.
Russian experts do not believe in protecting workers and the baby-boom
"The economic consequences of the deterioration of the demographic situation in the country can be disastrous — until the collapse of the state, which will not be able to secure adequate security, protection and adequate use of their own resources," — says CEO "FinExpertiza" Aghvan Mikaelian.
At the same time, Russian experts do not share the pessimism of Europeans about the dangers of the baby boom and hope for the migrants. "Even a very mild baby boom will stimulate the economy and push up GDP," — says the analyst of "Development" Sergei Shandybin.
However, he notes that "even under the most optimistic assumptions, in Russia in the coming years, we can only hope to stop the extinction rather than explosive growth." As for the hope of migrants, in the opinion of the analyst, an attempt to solve the demographic problem of this "quick and easy" way can lead to tragic consequences.
FMS official said, to whom and for what in Russia need hordes of migrant workers
"We do not even have that amount of migrants, which is now, — the former head of the press service of the Federal Migration Service Konstantin Poltoranin in an interview with the newspaper" Komsomolskaya Pravda ". — There is already an unmanaged process, and we are gone "line of no return." Our country has its own citizens in many regions can not find work — places of employment of migrants. "
According to the former official, "there is hardly a bona fide research on the subject of how much we need migrants" — all spontaneously. "Just in this to make money. What is 10 million people, which can still be involved? Count. This is 30 thousand a year with everyone, "- said Poltoranin.
Referring to the UN, he said that "guest workers worldwide money transfers made $ 400 billion — of which about 50 billion flow from Russia." "But the money could get our citizens. This is a huge amount (for example, is three times more than is spent annually on upgrading the Russian army), "- said the expert, adding that" we sponsor economy neighbors without receiving any economic or political benefits. "
In turn zamprorektora HSE Sergey Smirnov believes that Russia is on the demographic development of the country, which have not yet learned how to fight, and increasing migration — the only way to finally fall into a demographic hole, but this should be done by taking measures to attract educated workers , RBC daily. "You can not try to push migrants by increasing the birth rate. People born under the poverty line, will bring benefits to the economy less than workers who perform the work, which can not do without "- says Smirnov.
Who promises that Russia Rosstat — increased life, the UN and the CIA — extinction
Scientists have long been afraid of the prospect of its emergency extinction. Recently released the results of the population census, held in October 2010, showed that Russia's population will continue to decline.
At the same time, in September, Russian officials announced that the first time in the post-Soviet period, the population of the country was stabilized. The natural loss of population has decreased by almost 3.5 times, the average life expectancy increased by 3.5 years.
However, the CIA denied optimistic Rosstat data, calculated that the rate of reduction of the Russian population is almost 15 times higher than indicated in the official reports of the Federal Service.
UN scientists have mapped the extinction of mankind, according to which Russia is among the ten countries that will die before anyone else. They predicted that it would happen to our country in 2888, that is, after 800 years.
Note populated Russia, which occupies a huge territory, while only takes ninth place, behind the colossal three leaders — China (1.3 billion), India (1.2 billion) and the U.S. (310.4 million).
The new concept of demographic policy in 2011-2015 as a main task was to preserve the Russian population at 142 million people. At the same time should increase the duration of life of the citizens of 70 years.