The Transnistrian conflict: the problem of frozen

The Transnistrian conflict: the problem of frozen

Ukrainian diplomats expressed hope for a successful resumption of negotiations in the 5 +2 format on the Transnistrian konflikta.Spetsialisty also predict stagnation or settlement by the Russian scenario.

World Policy Institute released a study entitled "Scenarios of the Transnistrian conflict. Challenges of European security." Interviewed experts from Ukraine, Moldova, Russia, EU countries and the United States tend to predict stagnation in the settlement of the Transnistrian problem or its solution according to the scenario of Moscow.

A more affordable option for the development of the situation in the breakaway republic of Transnistria in the coming five years, according to the study, more or retaining current situation or the settlement of the Transnistrian problem for the Russian scenario of the so-called "Kozak plan-2". This plan provides for unification of Moldova on the Confederate base, with the right to self-determination of Transnistria in the event of loss of sovereignty and the accession of Moldova to Romania. Yet the least possible creators of the study surveyed experts believe the Europeanization of Transnistria. And it is quite unlikely called the prospects of entering Transnistria to the Russian Federation or Ukraine, the establishment of the territory of international protectorate, restoring the hot phase of the conflict and the recognition of the independence of Transnistria.

5 +2 =?

Political analyst at the Institute of Euro-Atalantichnoi cooperation Vladimir Gorbach, commenting on these estimates, torn possibility that Chisinau will agree to settlement Transnistrian prepyadstviya the metropolitan scenario. The plan, according to a professional, then the spread of military-political presence of the Russian Federation on the whole area of Moldova and geopolitical dictates of the Kremlin. Because such a step "could topple any state of Moldova, who would go on this kind of settlement." On the other hand, the preservation of the current state of a virtual split Moldova Gorbach said more affordable. Another possibility for the configuration of the situation Gorbach referred to the probable loss of power today president of the unrecognized republic, Igor Smirnov. This, according to the views of a professional, can occur as a result of the growing process of transition Transnistria with a presidential to a parliamentary form of government. Gorbach referred gorgeous rumors from sources diplomatically, soon spreads Ukrainian press, the European Union's readiness concessions in the Transnistrian issue by Moscow and favorites of the breakaway republic.

Move from place Transnistrian problem settlement of the case, in his opinion, could be an agreement between Germany, which, "as an engine of European integration of Moldova, the EU is engaged," and Russia.

The resumption of talks as a chance

Earlier, the President of Transnistria Igor Smirnov in the process of negotiations with the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Kiev reiterated its willingness to sit down at the negotiating table in an official format "5 +2". According to this formula, Moldova and Transdniestria take in discussions as part of the settlement, our homeland, Ukraine and the OSCE as mediators, the EU and the U.S. as observers. Gorbach congratulated himself the resumption of the talks, but expressed hesitation that they could lead to a breakthrough diplomatically: "Talks quite a long time and are not held to the Moldovans Pridnestrovians simply are not found on the official political level. Most that can be achieved is to resume talks , as such "- sure Gorbach.

Capital version of the settlement of the Transnistrian difficulties are unlikely to be supported by official Kiev, said not long ago, and former Deputy Foreign Minister Valery Chaly. He also noted that the recognition of such entities as the Transnistrian republic of Abkhazia or contrary to national interests of Ukraine.

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