Without the chaos of the world the United States will go to the world

Apparently, American elites are preparing for further expansion of military aggression and escalation of military and political conflicts that can destabilize the perimeter of its strategic competitors (EU, China, Japan, the Islamic world, etc.) and trigger a global movement of speculative capital U.S. financial markets and, above all, the market for government debt.

Against the background of ongoing discussions on the improvement of the financial and economic situation in the U.S., the real economic situation remains dire. The economic growth of 2% in the third quarter of 2012, though surpassed the average forecast (1.9%), but, nevertheless, was significantly lower than the 2.4% in 2010 and 4.1% in the last quarter of 2011 year. Moreover, almost entirely, this growth was due to an abrupt increase in investment in residential real estate (14.4%) and the expansion of government spending on the economy by increasing government deficits (9-13% of GDP over 2008-2012) and an increase burden of public debt (up to 106% of GDP).

Especially strong concern is the rapidly sprawling militarization of the U.S. economy — the cost of the federal government in the second quarter of this year jumped by as much as 3.7%, showing the first increase for the period from the second quarter of 2010. The spending on national defense, which in addition to conducting counter-insurgency operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan, as well as providing a power demand for U.S. dollar funding includes scientific and technical capacity and technology transfer from the military to the civilian sector, jumped as much as 13%.

In the period from January to August 2012 due to the implementation of policies on the Middle East chaos, cuts in sovereign credit ratings of eurozone members from U.S. rating agencies, the unbalance of international financial markets and extensive outreach programs to promote a favorable image of the United States, investors have the American elite provide net purchases of debt securities U.S. Treasury in the amount of non 372,300,000,000 dollars. This is a 5.4% increase from the previous year for the same time period (353.2 billion), and for obvious reasons, the same as the total U.S. trade deficit in the same period of time.

This process could not prevent even the actions of China, who, realizing the scale of accumulated structural imbalances and distortions in the world economy in recent years actively the process of reviewing the structure of its international reserves and diversifying its investments in foreign assets.

We must understand that even today the already extremely low rates of growth of the U.S. economy, not allowing to achieve a more or less significant improvement in labor market conditions are the result of numerous statistical manipulations and additions.

Through the use of hedonic indexes, manipulations with the structure and composition of the basket of household spending budget, various assumptions about the absolute efficiency of the consumer by the ruling authorities are able to artificially inflate the growth rates of the economy, industrial production, capital expenditures and income.

Meanwhile, today the White House is not able to service the enormous burden of public debt, which exceeded 106% of GDP in the autumn of 2012 (compared to 65% four years earlier), and the U.S., in fact, is in default.

We are talking about excessive debt burden on the state (106% of GDP), the outstanding liabilities of the White House Office of Social Security and Medicare (355% of GDP), perennial chronic budget deficit (9-13,5% of GDP over 3.5 years) and the trade balance (3,8-6% of GDP) and excessive debt burden on bedneyuschee population (115-125% of disposable income).

The only thing that allows the state to maintain afloat colossal pyramid of public debt, which is the foundation of all modern international monetary system "dollar imperialism" — control of the printing press and imposed worldwide status of the dollar as a reserve currency, the main means of payment, treatment and accumulation.

Extremely instructive was a sad experience of Iraq and Iran, who dared to negligence in the early 2000s to declare failure of dollars as a means of treatment and payment in the international oil trade and the transition to the euro and regional currencies. Immediately after these statements guide the Islamic republics followed by large-scale operation against "international terrorism", grown, as can be judged, American and European intelligence agencies, and a bloody war in the Middle East. Currently, the demand for dollars is supported not only by macroeconomic factors and objective scientific and technical excellence, but in virtue of the enormous military, political and advocacy of U.S. supremacy in the world, as well as their status as "world policeman" and "peddler of democracy."

Yes, of course, in relative terms, total for the U.S. national debt has not yet reached the absolute historical maximum of 123% of GDP, which was recorded at the height of World War II. However, we must point out the fact that only since the early 1970s, when the August speech of Richard Nixon United States, in fact, defaulted by refusing to exchange dollars for gold at a fixed rate debt burden per capita in real terms in the U.S. (ie adjusted for inflation) has risen from 7.5 to 41 thousand dollars. Despite the fact that during the Second World War in the period of 1939-1945, despite the manifold increase in budget deficits and public debt per capita in 2005 dollars fixed amount of public debt does not exceed 17 thousand dollars. A pre-war years of 1900-1935, and the figure does fluctuated between 500-3000 dollars.

Not better things with budget deficits, which are already heavily on the neck, not only the U.S. financial system, but also the world economy. Not only that, for the 2008-2012 alone federal government spending by an average of 9-13% of GDP higher than the size of budget revenues, so also itself the size of the budget deficit in the U.S. per capita managed to achieve absolute historic high of 4.3 thousand dollars in the midst of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

In 1939-1945 the per capita size of budget deficits in the U.S. dollar in 2005 was not raised above the level of 3.7 thousand dollars, and since the removal of the "golden brakes" in 1973, running the printing press and the beginning of the credit policy of unrestrained economic pump size per capita deficit in the United States ranged between 500-1500 dollars.

At the same time the scale has reached astronomical amount of annual payments on the public debt, and, above all, the payment of interest on the part of the U.S. government, and, therefore, from the pocket of ordinary U.S. citizens. According to official data, U.S. Treasury, per U.S. citizen annual cost of the federal government to pay interest on the public debt jumped from $ 200 in 1950-1960 to $ 400 in the mid-1970s, and more than 1.1 thousand dollars in the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s.

The most amazing thing is that, despite an almost twofold increase in the size of U.S. debt, in the last 11 years (2000 to 2011), due to an unprecedented volume of emission pumping of financial markets, the large-scale redemption of government debt securities on the balance of the U.S. Federal Reserve and thus artificially lowering the borrowing rate on the public debt market, the size of annual payments of U.S. citizens to pay interest at constant 2005 prices declined from 1-1,2 thousand dollars up to 570-700 dollars.

Another noticeable results the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement the undisguised policy of monetization of government debt. Thanks to an unprecedented emission pumping financial markets by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which exceeded 2.5 trillion dollars for the period 2008-2012, and the artificial retention of real interest rates in negative territory even with the official inflation rate, the share of interest payments on the public debt declined from 4-4,2% of GDP in the late 1990s to less than significant 2% of GDP in 2006-2012.

It is obvious that the pyramid of U.S. government debt, which is the foundation and the base of the entire international financial system "dollar imperialism", providing pumping real resources and wealth into the pockets of the rest of the financial oligarchy of Wall Street in exchange for U.S. debt is on the verge of collapse .

Judging by the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve in mid-September, has announced the launch of the next, already fourth round of quantitative easing number of about 480-500 billion dollars, the construction of the pyramid of debt approached its limit and market mechanisms can no longer meet the demand for home products USA — rapidly depreciating dollars.

Pyramid of the U.S. public debt, supporting an overvalued by 1.5-2 times the standard of living of American citizens, will collapse as soon as the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop pouring financial markets cheap emission liquidity and rate of return on U.S. government bonds return to more or less the state of equilibrium, as determined by the market rather than the printing press.

In other words, there is a rapid and as far as can be judged, uncontrolled inflation of government spending and debt that can keep afloat artificially inflated by 1.7-2 times the consumption of U.S. households.

If the leadership of the White House will not be able to step on the throat of the military-industrial complex and cut funding for military operations, "the planting of democracy" in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it risks provoking a full-fledged budget crisis in the U.S.. It is a budget crisis with a high probability finally undermine the confidence of investors and the rest of the U.S. currency and will cause irreversible damage to the existing international monetary and financial system, the dollar imperialism.

This was, by the way, has repeatedly stated publicly the Chinese leadership, which is trying to carry out an independent nationally oriented financial and economic policy.

It should be mentioned that in the period from August 2011 to August 2012 the volume of investments of the Government of China and the People's Bank of China in U.S. government debt securities decreased from 1.27 to 1.15 trillion dollars. While Russia, the financial and economic block which occupied the ideological followers of young reformers and the "market fundamentalists", believing that the state is called upon to serve the interests of global business and multinationals increased its investment by 11% (from 138.1 to 153.3 billion dollars). Over the same time, Japan has increased its investments in debt securities of the gold reserves of the U.S. Federal Treasury by 23.6% (from 907 to 1.1215 trillion U.S. dollars), oil-exporting countries — by 7% (from 245.8 to 263 billion), the country- offshore Caribbean — by 22.1% (from 210.4 to 256.9 billion), and Brazil has increased investments in debt securities of the U.S. government by 15.8% — from 219.2 to 253.9 billion dollars.

As far as we can judge, the Chinese leadership, in contrast to the frigid narrowly sectarian liberal consciousness Russian colleagues, well aware of the magnitude of accumulated structural imbalances in the U.S. economy and global financial system. And the financial and political elites in China tend to, on the one hand, to strengthen its financial and economic influence over the country, and on the other, to overcome still has a substantial scientific and technological backwardness of the U.S., EU and Japan, without which China can not quite seriously claim to be the leader in the world economy and not give up the status of "assembly line" of global corporations.

While Russian officials, under a rough talk about modernization and innovation, continue to withdraw from the economy each year 3-6% of GDP and invest in debt securities of strategic competitors, encouraging modernization and creation of innovative productions abroad.

Vladislav Zhukovsky

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