Frightening oil drums of war will drive the world economy into a deep recession

Frightening oil "drums of war" will drive the world economy into a deep recessionNow a fragile global economy faces many risks: the risk of decline in the latest outbreak of the euro area, the risk of higher-than-expected slowdown in China, and the risk that the economic recovery in the U.S. will fall to the sonorous sound (again!). But there is no greater risk than the imminent increase in prices of oil.

The cost per barrel of Brent crude, which was less than $ 100 in 2011, not so long ago has risen to $ 125. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have already approached $ 4 a gallon, the destructive threshold for consumer belief, and will continue to grow in during the summer months, when demand is seasonally high.

The reason for this — the horror. Because in fact sverhizbytochny oil supply and demand in the U.S. and the EU declined, reflecting a decrease in the use of cars in the last couple of years, and weak or bad, GDP growth in the U.S. and the eurozone. Simply put, raising concern about a military conflict between Israel and Iran has made "fear preimum."

The last three global recession (past in relation to 2008) were all caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East, which led to a sharp rise in oil prices. Yom Kippur war in 1973 between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-75. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to the global stagflation of 1980-82 period. And the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990 led to a global recession of 1990-91.

Even the latest global recession, while running the financial crisis has been aggravated by rising oil prices in 2008. When the cost of a barrel headed for $ 145 in July of that year, the oil-importing developed economies and emerging markets faced a prototype watershed recession.

The risk that the danger of Israeli assault Iran's nuclear facilities, which will lead to direct military conflict is still low, but it is growing. Last visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the U.S. showed that Israel's patience is still less than the South American. The current war of the worlds is enhanced, and the hidden war that Israel and the U.S. are with Iran (including the killing of nuclear scientists and the introduction of viruses to damage to nuclear facilities).

Iran pressed against the wall of sanctions (in particular the latest SWIFT and the limitations of the central banks and the European decision to end importing Iranian oil), can answer the voltage gain in the bay. On occasion, he can just sink a few ships to block the Strait of Hormuz or to take actions of their own proxy networks in the region, which includes the pro-Iranian Shiite forces in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, "Hezbollah" in Lebanon and "Hamas" and "Islamic jihad "in the Gaza Strip.

Recent attacks on Israeli embassies around the world are demonstrating Iran's reaction in response to the hidden war against him and the strengthening of sanctions, which would exacerbate the economic situation of Iran. Likewise, the recent escalation of clashes between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian military can be a sign, hinting at likely future developments.

The next few weeks may bring a voltage drop as the U.S., France, Germany, England, China, and our homeland will hold a new round of efforts to dissuade Iran from the creation of nuclear weapons or the capability to create it. But if these tests fail, it is possible, in the summer (Israel and the United States agree that it is better sooner than later) to stop Iran's force will be used.

While Israel and the United States still do not agree on certain Fri (Israel wants to hit this year, and the Obama administration does not want to start a war before the election in November), the two sides agree on the goals and plans. What more fundamentally, the United States clearly refute the deterrence (adoption and implementation of Iran's nuclear deterrence strategy). Because, if sanctions and negotiations do not work, the United States ("a country that is not bluffing," according to the words of Obama) will begin military action against Iran. U.S. urgently atni the slack-bunker bombs and refueling tankers to Israel, until the two armies conducted joint military exercises in case the attack would be necessary and inevitable.

If the war drums will sound louder this summer, oil prices rise so Makar, who likely will slow down the South American and global growth, and even vsepolnotsennuyu recession, if there military conflict and cause a sharp spike in oil prices.

Moreover, the broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is not reduced, and may increase. Aside from deep uncertainty regarding the course of events in Egypt and Libya, Syria is on the brink of war, civilian, and structural forces can take over in Yemen, calling into question the safety of Saudi Arabia. Also, there is concern about the growing political tensions in Bahrain and the oil-rich Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, and potentially even in Kuwait and Jordan, all regions where the Shia or other restless groups make up a significant part of the population.

Now, when the U.S. withdrew from Iraq, increasing tensions between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds does not contribute to the country's ability to increment oil production in the near future. There is also the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the tension between Israel and Turkey, and the hottest point (namely, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) next door.

Oil is very superior to the level of $ 100 per barrel, despite the weak economic growth in the advanced countries and in almost all emerging markets. Horror can raise prices significantly higher, even if the military conflict will not start, and definitely will cause a global recession, if will war.

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