Putin and Hollande absentia fight for Turkey

Putin and Hollande absentia fight for TurkeyFrance officially declared favorite of the presidential race — Francois Hollande. For the Socialists voted the favorite of about 52% of the French, who came to the polls. Nicolas Sarkozy during the time of the last to leave the presidential palace and stay in the French history of its 23rd president, many political decisions are perceived as very versatile inside most of the Fifth Republic and abroad.

One of the most resonant of the laws relating to foreign policy of the countries that adopted under President Sarkozy, was a law banning denial of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire early last century. After the adoption of the law at least some Frenchman, who will allow themselves to respond to the frivolous colors of the Armenian genocide or genocide at all to doubt, the most awaited and expects the true criminal prosecution. Such a law, Nicolas Sarkozy apparently wanted to attract the Armenian diaspora in France's presidential race, but, as we are aware, the Armenian vote Sarkozy apparently was not enough for his victory.

Specifically, because of the adoption of this law is fundamentally changed things between Paris and Ankara. These cases may be referred to the stalled because neither one nor the other government lusted to go in this complex question each other to make concessions. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan directly blamed Sarkozy that he deliberately anti-Turkish opens a page in the history of France. The situation was aggravated by the same fact that both France and Turkey are members of NATO, and the reluctance of the authorities to meet each other temporarily put a large cross on joint military exercises and operations.

But now the Turkish authorities several different gaze on France. Of course, that Ankara expects the new French president, some concessions in a delicate Armenian issue, which is like a shadow lay on the affairs of 2-countries. But the fact is, that while he and Hollande can not determine its own position with respect to Turkey. Even a couple of weeks before the presidential election Francois Hollande declared that urges Turkey to recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915, so most to discover the way to the EU. Apparently, the future president, too, did not want to lose countless adherents of the Armenian Diaspora of the Fifth Republic. But after the announcement of the official results of the presidential elections Socialist Hollande decided little to soften his rhetoric to the official Ankara, which, of course, from the very Ankara could not pass unnoticed.

24th president France said it was ready to fix things with Turkey, which have been deadlocked previous rule of France. Hollande said he was ready to make a proposal to change the interpretation of the law on the Armenian genocide, that "adjust" it under the French constitution. The new president stressed that he wants to show that law obviously not aimed at discrediting the modern-day Turkey, and longs to bring this fact to the Turkish authorities as well as to the ordinary people of Turkey.

After these words Hollande decided to speak out and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said that lays down high hopes for the new president of France. Turkish Premier believes that all past "populist statements" more candidate Hollande on the Armenian genocide will remain in the past. In this regard, we can say that the 24th French president to have his own inauguration was faced with a very severe problem of foreign policy. If at this point it really decides to radically rethink law Genocide, adopted by the French Senate for Sarkozy, it will bring upon Hollande favor of those who fought for this law. If Francois Hollande will leave everything as is, at this moment, it is a big risk of losing Turkey as an ally, if not forever, then for long years to come.

But genocide Armenians in 1915 — it is far not the only issue that looks out of place in a sharp relations with Turkey. In recent years, Turkey intensely anxious to get into the European Union, but particularly France acts as an active opponent of such integration. Turkish authorities of Paris every time tried to recall that until the entry is not out of the question for several reasons. In 1-x, the EU calls on Turkey to abandon its own claim to Northern Cyprus, which is the 70-ies of the last century, is under the jurisdiction of the self-proclaimed Ankara. In-2, the blame is put Turkey that its authorities have not yet had a sufficient number of internal reforms to meet EU democratic norms. Another important issue in hindering Turkey's EU membership, is, according to European bureaucrats, uncontrolled migration from Turkey to the United Europe. Specifically, the problem of migration has become one of the last drop that broke the Turkish patience. The thing is that on the Greek border barrage began to be erected walls that the plan had to fence off the creators of the European Union of Turkish migrants. This discrimination has even forced the Turkish municipal officials talk about the fact that they now Tipo themselves will think a hundred times whether to continue contacts with the EU or to draw attention to integration with other partners.

By the way, particularly after the incident around that the Greek wall, reports began to appear about intrigued in cooperation between Ankara and the Eurasian Union, the creator of the idea which made the then Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This intrigued by the Turkish authorities and supported by the fact that after the fall of trade between Turkey and Russia during the height of the economic crisis, these features are now re-grow rapidly. First, in 2012 the trade turnover exceeded 20 billion dollars. It would seem that, by modern standards, it is quite reasonable figure, but, for example, the Turkish-US trade is only 12 billion dollars.

In addition, Russian experts at building a nuclear power plant in Turkey "Akkuyu" and also about 1.5 years ago, specifically the European Union opposed the cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the field of nuclear energy. This again indicates that Turkey Europeans just try to keep on a leash: they say, and its accession to the EU will resist, alluding to the "democratic shortcomings", and develop business with other countries, we will not. The strategy, which states that the use of silver-tongued Turkey just like a typical buffer between the European Union and the Middle East, which (buffer) will act as the guarantor of stability in the south-eastern outskirts of the EU. Have a priklnnogo and massive neighbor profitably EU, but because this neighbor might one "perfect" moment and change the vector of its foreign policy orientation.

In this connection it should be noted that, perhaps, recently we will witness a duel specific correspondence of the Russian Federation and the European Union for loyalty Turkey. And because on the one hand is Francois Hollande, which Ankara showed willingness to offer a compromise solution, and on the other — Vladimir Putin, who, as we know, too, knows how to persuade, distance duel looms Putin and Hollande. The outcome of this bloodless duel can play a tremendous importance for Turkey itself, and for the Russian Federation and the European Union. And we must recognize that in the near future Europeans have become tougher response to Ankara's desire to get under the wing of the EU. And it gives great chances of the Russian Federation to take the bull by the horns and Turkey show t
hat the partnership with Moscow to Ankara has much more advantages than focus on the variable Brussels. Certainly, you can not state that the case of Turkey and the Russian Federation are fully clear, there is here and his "fly in the ointment." One of these "spoons tar" is almost the polar position on the Syrian situation. Turkey supports the mandatory retirement Assad and Our homeland does not see the need. But the eyes of foreign policy obviously should not prevent reliable economic partnership between Moscow and Ankara. In the end, specifically the economy can become a driving force, which will allow to bring the case of 2-on perfectly new level.

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