After the election of Putin the pretext of high employment declined an invitation to Obama and did not go to the G8 summit at Camp David. Instead, he first went to Belarus, then — in Germany, France, at the European Union summit in Uzbekistan, and eventually came to China. What goes the route of his trip?
Languid days of low oil prices
If you look at a map of the country visited by Putin, the Russian Federation arc bend around the area and have land communication with her. By their nature all these countries are oil (gas) trading partners of Russia. From all this we can draw two conclusions: Putin's political power is dependent on oil, and the drop in oil prices has put pressure on him.
The predecessor of the Russian Federation — Russian Alliance — was the industrial superpower. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union its industrial base — the enormous tree — was felled and sawn into pieces oligarchs and financial groups of the West, who sold them at a cost of firewood, and the Russian Federation have left only hemp (resource-branch) and of the fruit (NO production chain, military factories) . This means that the welfare of the Russian Federation, and even its survival in the future is dependent on the export of military equipment and resources, and the main source of wealth for Russia are oil and gas. And even more heavily favored — unable to change this situation.
After the death of Soviet Russia in the Yeltsin took his hands, but throughout the 1990s, oil prices remained low. After the end of the Gulf War, prices fluctuated at 20 bucks, because a couple of times Russian economy is on the verge of collapse, and the average life expectancy dropped by 10 years. This compares to the mass murder of several million inhabitants in the country with a population of over 100 million. In 1998, the Asian crisis has led to the fact that oil prices have fallen to critically low levels — $ 9. Take a ride on the Russian economy echo collapse, dollar exchange rate rose from 6 rubles to 24, and the ruble was reincarnated into a useless piece of paper. By the end of the year the turnover of bucks inside the mills exceeded the external monetary transactions Our home was close to becoming a U.S. colony. Yeltsin lost in clinics for the year was replaced by 5 Prime Ministers — which, however, did not help to solve the prepyadstviya. Newspapers teased Yeltsin and wrote that in China for 50 years, changed five Prime Ministers, and Yeltsin — as much in one year.
In 1999, Yeltsin finally broke down and gave power to Putin, and he went to drink vodka. Since then, Putin, along with a select group started running Russia. Perhaps Yeltsin then thought about it: "We must find a KGB man, let this whole mess is going to the dogs. I've had enough. "
Putin — the last KGB man, because everybody was convinced that he will be a strong manager, able to gain the upper hand after a defeat. After Putin came to power, his actions, he has strengthened this political style. But, judging from some results, Putin has not helped the industry of the former Russian Union: during his reign Our homeland has become even less to create industrial products and has become more dependent on the resources and export of oil. But, in one beat Yeltsin Putin — he was luckier its predecessor.
Since Putin came to power, oil prices began to rise from year to year. In 2003, prices steadily overcame the limit of $ 30 in 2005, have gained 40 bucks, and by 2008, when Putin left the presidency, has already exceeded $ 100. In the best of times, oil prices reached 147 dollars, and the whole 9 years increased 10 times from unnecessary. Our homeland eventually received long been unheard of money supplies. Therein lies the secret of the "Putin's a miracle."
During this period, our homeland was finally able to breathe, to pay some pension after the devaluation of the ruble, podremontirovat abandoned in the past 10 years, the city's infrastructure, provide flat yutivshimsya in military dormitories. Means even sufficed to start the development of one or two new missiles, that the only support of — a nuclear weapon — it is not out of date.
In addition, many retirees who needed to provide medical and pensions, died back in 1990 and could not be added to Putin wraith, and above the thousands of industrial cities were abandoned — it also removed the difficulties and comforting intrigued by the group. Because Putin can with a small group of oligarchic control Russian society. From 2008 to 2012, Putin has held the post of Prime Minister and rules Russia by Medvedev. Although oil prices have not increased exploding, but were kept at 70-80 bucks, because our homeland could continue to be stable in the last decade.
And most importantly — no one minded that Putin quietly reincarnated from the president to the prime minister and back. From the standpoint of energy prices, the start of the new term of Putin looks good, the price of oil close to 100 dollars, the situation in the society as a whole is also measured. But if you assess the situation from the perspective of income and expenditure, the power of Putin threatens many sheltered threats.
The situation is beginning to change
Oil prices in 2012 remain at a sufficiently high level, but Bucks markedly impaired. In the crisis year of 2008 the government of different countries on a large scale printing means to resolve the issue of the missing demand. The result of such policies was their devaluation and inflation. In 2004, the year ended with the first term of Putin's presidency, an ounce of gold was $ 400, in 2012, the price of gold has increased steadily up to 1600 bucks. In contrast, the price per one petrodollar industrial products has significantly reduced the level of wealth and income. To reduce the income and wealth can not be taken lightly.
Putin has not built the same as a strong political system, as in the Communist Party. Unified Our homeland is actually — no not a party but a group with its own interests — disjointed union representatives bureaucratic clique. If Putin can constantly increase the welfare of different classes, also gave the opportunity to groups representing different interests, get to come, no one would have managed to shake the position of His Majesty Putin. Conversely, if in the hands of Putin's petro-dollars and will not be purchased on their products, no heroic battles with tigers and flying fighter planes did not posodeystvuyut him to avoid complete isolation. And our homeland again be plunged into an abyss of unrest of the 1990s.
The problem will be the most deadly that exports of resources is dependent on the global economic situation. In 2008, the governments were able to temporarily s
tabilize the situation through critical monetary policy, but in the industry in Europe and the U.S. recession began. China to this day can not cope with a missing level of demand, and the decision problems through the issuance of funds has led to strong inflationary pressures. Therefore, if after 3-4 years in the economy will decline again, Europe's debt crisis broke out, the U.S. unemployment rate will go down to the land of the rising sun will tsunami, from which she will not be able to recover, in China, which has become the engine of the world economy, also slow down the rate of economic growth. A simultaneous outbreak of war in the Middle East will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. In May of this year there was the strongest since 2008, falling oil prices, and the Russian Federation difficulties began immediately.
Radically change the situation could restore the industry and the introduction of rich resources for the production of domestic consumption. But it begs the huge capital that our homeland just can not muster. Russian rich people believe that this country has no chance, and how to get some profit, immediately run to transfer it abroad — on the other they somehow restless. During the 10 years of Putin's government of the Russian Federation once a year, millions of flows abroad, in 2011, capital outflows amounted to 84.2 billion dollars. This means that the oil revenues barely profitable. Putin, whose names are not on another, as "king", is able to do only one thing — to become a trader in oil.
A good trader must run the client, especially — when things are on the market is not particularly bad. At the moment the cost of oil because of inflation fell from $ 100 up to 8 ti0 and continues to drop, because completely reasonable that Putin first went to visit clients, so when the price of oil will fall down, they entered his position. Belarus, Germany, France, who had just visited Putin — an old client of, and Uzbekistan, in which he looked along the way — the place of production of oil. China, as the largest industrial economy, is experiencing virtually unlimited demand for oil because of Putin, of course, there is reason to declare a visit and try to sign a long contract decisive.
United States with a population of 300 million people do not lack resources, they develop shale gas, and are now beginning to provide themselves evenly resources and even export energy resources. Over the past few months, the Chinese have bought a lot of power cheapened coal in the United States. Putin does not expect the South American market, because does not see sense to bow and scrape to Obama. United States, indeed, are at present a great threat to the Russian Federation, it is — the fact.
To stabilize the dollar, the U.S. should remove all possible enemies in the Middle East, and most important of them from the standpoint of the Yankees is Iran. Iran is the second country in the world in terms of oil supplies, because the drop in oil prices will reduce the income of the country, limiting the reasons for the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran will be much less. Virtually the summit "Big Eight" came to one opinion, that should "print" strategic supplies of oil, to augment price pressure. In such a situation Putin, of course, he does not want to intrude on the problem, because avoids appearing on the site G8.
Incidents stronger people
As a result, Putin's group — only just drape the remains of the Russian Union which can not change the structural dependence of the Russian economy on the resources will not depart from the practice section bolshennymi economic profit between capital and will not change the fact that their flight over the limit. The only thing able to make Putin — is more expensive to sell resources and make every effort to delay the wilting of. What's all the same for the "revival" of, after the collapse of the Soviet Union no sober-minded observer will not accept this election lozug for the truth. In such circumstances, in the short term, China and our homeland will get along fine, maybe even join the Alliance. Only by taking into account the pressure of competition from other resource-rich countries, the leading force in this union should be China. During the Sino-Russian joint military exercises China puts most modern warships of the XXI century, and our home can provide only a few left over from the Russian Union of ships of old times. This reflects the new balance of power.
China has often said: "The circumstances stronger than men." In the industrial era of the country without industry must have an excellent understanding of their strengths and feeble hand. No matter how "powerful" Putin was not in the main economic issues he could show his strength, he has always obsequious grin on his face talk with the client to his political career has not been able to quietly pass away, and he was not reincarnated as Gorbachev in doll, which at times pulling the strings.