Vorachivayas for president, Putin is very much at risk. However, agreeing to become in 1999, it is also very risky. The situation then was really worse than it is now, and that a successful government that he had in the 2000s., No one foresaw. When he became prime minister (as he was named a confidence rating of 2%), it was widely expected that the very status of the successor to Yeltsin's not that it would sink, but did not give and swim.
Defeat the communist opposition, the oligarchs, regional separatist Fronde, television, Luzhkov and Shaymiev economical disadvantage, to pay the debts of, the accumulated since the time of Gorbachev's adventures — no one did not expect him to make it. Oil prices oil prices, vertical not vertical, but left it in 2008 on the crest of popularity with a rating of 80% support.
And if he just walked away, it would have remained, on the one hand, under the law on guarantees of the former President of the Russian Federation, on the other hand — and in harmony with the world and with the Russian elite. All these difficulties would lie on the shoulders of his successors. His applause greeted a crowd on the streets and stadiums, with not only Russia. He would have been 56 years old. It would be the most noble and pochetaemym politician and public figures of Russia and would be perceived as the most sparkling ruler almost in the history of Russia. If he failed his success after 1999, he would have none of it had, but nothing would have lost. There was a risk of electric shock, but it did not lose very much.
At the moment, it's not that. At the moment everything is, as mentioned above, is at stake. If also believe the rumors of a multi-billion dollar state, in the event of trouble, and it shall not escape. And the situation at the moment a lot better and a lot more difficult than it was then. More resources — and more risks. And he, apparently, in varying degrees, these dangers are understood as the first 2011 decision had not yet been adopted. For a variety of information, it just has not been passed by April last year.
In his acceptance of the role played by the giant U.S. pressure transmitted through Biden when he sought from Putin not to stand for election, the conflict on the assessment of Libyan events when its about a week excommunicated from the air, constant performance and Jurgens Institute of Contemporary Development, through which clear part of the Russian elite actually put GDP ultimatum, warning of his own willingness to organize a massive mess in the event of his nomination.
He went on to advance, knowing what kind of resistance he will be rendered. He won — but only the beginning.
The overall configuration of this. Against him:
— A strong faction of the world elite, frankly does not want to return to the post;
— Frankly aimed at the West fraction Russian elite over the past year, fought for his exclusion from the election and bet on Medvedev, and their asset in the political class;
— Those who are called "liberal media": from "Echo of Moscow" to channel "Rain";
— Part of the elite, made a bet on it, but it is expected of him "liberal market policies" and entered into an alliance with him who did not want a part of the elite. Together they lead the fight for the government and try to drive out of its potential members of the elite and the state directed the state capital.
With all of this Putin managed to keep the basic resource, which allowed him to take a relatively independent position in the confrontation between the elites — support for the lower classes. Now, however, he had to resort to mobilize and take over completely the left and social obligations. He defeated by "anti-Orange" banner, and if not with the "red", then "rose" applets.
In society there are Westernized rich minority wishing market fundamentalism, and there levoorientirovannoe poor majority who wishes left prosocialist course. Until now, the feature of the course Fishing season was that he in Bonapartist joined expectations 2-classes: the rich get richer gave — and reduced the number of poor. As the Strugatskys in "The Inhabited Island": "The top was able to tame the appetites of industrialists than captured popularity among the workers, and resulted in the subordination of the workers than captured popularity among industrialists."
But to beat, providing electoral mobilization of supporters, he took over the "increased social obligations." Correct, impartial necessary to meet the public interest — but overpriced. And provide for those expenses that require a certain degree (also fully justified), bringing the interests of the rich to sacrifice the interests of the poor, as the course for the development of an independent economy of, fairly demanding more municipal regulation of the economy and a pretty tough defense interests of Russia and its industrial development on the international arena.
With all of this thing is that Putin has brought success in the 2000s., — It is the contrast that existed between this time and the period of Yeltsin's rule. Putin's popularity — it's the memory of this contrast. His return to the presidency most supported as expected from him the same contrast in comparison with the period of Medvedev's presidency. That is, it must provide a summary that will make life in his brand-new rule also best in comparison with fully nebedstvennym time Medvedev, as it became in the 2000s. best compared with the critical state of the 90-ies.
Figuratively speaking, in the 2000s. He moved up the hill. Those who fought against it and built the main charge on the fact that he moved, not two. And now he has made a commitment to move four more. If you will not move — is disappointing, and then lose the head of the resource in a confrontation with the market-collaborationist and Westernized elite factions, and they are or who has it out for yourself, or get killed.
At the elite level, it is actually one against all. But behind it — most of the country. But it is for him so far, and only until such time as he against this strong and secured a minority until it against the elite.
To ease the confrontation of the elite, it is necessary to sacrifice the interests of the majority supporting it, but then he would be powerless in the elite. To help in the fight against it, it must meet the expectations of the majority. This means the growth of confrontation with the elite — and the Russian and the world.
In "The Wizard of Oz" Dorothy went to Golden Cap, which gave the opportunity to call for help for themselves mighty tribe of flying monkeys, but only three times. This winter, Putin has called for people to help themselves, but maybe already made a mistake by not throwing it into the elite. Those who tried to organize a rebellion against him were not so far removed from any power, nor, unlike Khodorkovsky punished for this rebellion. They have kept their skills, and their struggle to keep him. And they will continue.
And if Putin will not be able to fulfill the promise will not be able to stand in this controversy on the side of the majority, then the subsequent time help can not come. If he does not fulfill that promise, what is expected of him — people for it in subsequent time
s at least not plead. A if He will be on the right side of the minority, the majority who supported him last winter, may itself have come against him.
He is very much at risk. More than 10 years ago.
And out he really only one — how was it said in August last year in Novorossiysk, when he, in fact, began his campaign: "Movement — only forward." Together with the majority — against the minority.