The overthrow of the government of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya immediately raises many questions that at long confrontation with the dictatorial regime one way or another on the back burner. And chief among them — that will still be on in Libya? After all, now that Gaddafi is ousted, Libya faces a long and torturing way as peaceful and regular life will become the norm for the Libyans.
The reality is such that apart from the obstacles in the form of followers and supporters of Gaddafi, which are sure to get in the way Libya, interfering with its successful transition to democracy, there is also an obstacle inside its ranks the rebels. Already at this point there are very worrying signs of friction between the pro-Western insurgency and constructively minded Islamists are ideologically against the creation of a new government based on democracy, Western standard.
How to overcome these differences, hard to say right now. But if the first formation of modern Libya to ignore this dilemma, it is very possible civilian clothes could trigger a war in the country and lead to its separation into parts.
You also need to take into account the factor that Gaddafi — this is not the last Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. So, after the overthrow of the dictatorship in Egypt ran across the power in the hands of "guardians" of the number of military, activated pre-existing opposition political forces and media-independent, and it lasts quite ill, but the real way to move the country to greater democracy. In Libya, the situation is quite different. Muammar Gaddafi's rule since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1969. This country has no constitution, political parties and trade unions were banned there for 35 years.
We can say that in Libya there is no structured organizations, which could set the interaction between the government and the people, to represent the interests of society and put forward their demands are not in the form of anti-regime, but by constructive dialogue with the authorities. Of course, the transition period in postdiktatorskie times must be applied in order to avoid a power vacuum and how to faster return political life of the country.
In addition, it should be remembered that at the time, Libya was rather artificial municipality, united within itself three former provinces of the Ottoman Empire. And because the lack of a mature state identity greatly complicates the work of building a new country on the ruins of the Libyan dictatorship of Muammar Gaddafi.
The only way out of the crisis, which may enter Libya after the revolution, it can become a new management agreement with the favorites of more than 100 tribes living on its territory. In fact, the development of the modern paradigm of the municipal building — is the reliance on the continuity and of configurations. Tribal affiliation is now the principal, because Gaddafi deliberately destroyed during the reign of its own civilian society in Libya. To do this the latest workable political system really is possible only by taking into account the tribal interests and demands of their favorites.
Although in this case the tribes, no matter how influential they may be, they can not change is the fact the political process. After all, hard to have a real democratic process, if part of the population will vote only on the basis of their own tribe. A similar attitude to politics is completely capable to bring the same negatives of tribalism and regionalism, which are now hunt down from the number of African states.
It is necessary to try to discern the likely scenario the road ahead of Libya. First of them — totally positive. Libya, which is brand new in its infancy. The country has established several massive political parties participating in the upcoming parliamentary elections, which forms the government of national unity, which is made on the basis of the best professionals of the constitution and respect for the law promotes Libya on the path to democracy, to engage its rightful place in the global world society. Libyans will have a massive financial and technological assistance from the West uniform brand new and modern Libya is converted to a standard to follow for all the changing Arab world.
Scenario second — the least optimistic. Democratic and proislamistskie forces in Libya, after a long and difficult period of attempts to agree among themselves, could not come to an agreement. Several newly formed democratic parties come into sharp political konkurentnst with constructive proislamistskimi political groups, and Libya set the actual dual power. West is beginning to give up on the political and economic reforms that are unable to hold a coalition government. Help the Western world begins to decrease, and the impact of Islamists in Libya grows inexorably.
Begins and shall enter into force on the nostalgia of the population "stable" period of the reign of the Gaddafi regime and its supporters out onto the political scene, forming his own party, which is taking part in the parliamentary elections, gets more than a third of the seats. It starts with an unhurried but steady process of restoration "kaddafizma" using all that Gaddafi's forces try to block any positive changes in Libya.
Scenario third — yet the least positive. Political confrontation with the passage of time goes into the power openly shape. The Democrats can not hold control over the entire state. Favorites of tribal alliances provoke division of the country and the central government, under pressure from opponents, in the end, will be required to agree to the federalization of Libya along tribal lines. Its territory is divided into three parts, and this division will correspond to approximately the conventional boundaries of 3 former provinces of the Ottoman Empire. The country is decentralized and becomes almost unmanageable. Usurped in favor of its revenue from oil production, the leaders of tribes very soon converted to the oligarchs, who are shamelessly to dictate their will to the latest power.
Scenario fourth — tragic. After a long and fruitless attempts to agree with the Islamists democratic government is losing ground. The standard of living of ordinary Libyans compounded Islamists and get all the great support among the population. In the parliamentary elections, using fraud and intimidation, "wins" an Islamist party. The central government in Tripoli refuses to accept the results of the rigged elections and declares them invalid. Islamists are beginning to power methods to defend the results of their own "victory" and Libya slips in civilian war. The result of this is the division of Libya into two parts, one of which is under the control of the Islamists.
Those who are now the newest designs Libya, must take into account the tremendous ability to deploy all of these four scenarios, the likely scenario. After all, as experience shows the events of recent years in Iraq and Afghanistan, and even easier to topple undemocratic regimes rather than later to govern well. The internal crisis in Libya is fully capable of provoking the latest plainclothes war, which eventually will probably far more brutal and bloody than the one that preceded the overthrow of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi.
One thing is clear: Libya comes at a critical phase of its development, and the transition from destruction to construction can be more complex and dramatic. Because very fundamentally not in any way prevent the very beginning of the expansi
on of fault lines on the completely real ethnic and religious tensions that Gaddafi dictatorial ways managed to keep that in check.
Almost to the Libyan control gets very hard choice — how to prevent slipping his own country into chaos and anarchy, with all this moving directly toward democratic choice. Of course, now that the tasks facing the Libyans are very complex. Only under the condition of professionalism and ethics and the real power of the modern Western help in all areas of Libya can pass this important exam stories. Exam that will affect not only her destiny, and almost all over the situation in the entire Middle East region and the Mediterranean in general.