America supports their words and actions. Over the past two months, the Americans concentrated third ship of their own Navy in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Now off the coast of Iran are three battle groups, including three aircraft carriers and 30 escort vessels. Do not forget about the French aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" and several English ships, which are also located in the Arabian Sea. Another carrier battle group led by the United States Navy with the aircraft carrier "Enterprise" in real time conducting exercises off the coast of Virginia, at the end of which will head to Iran. Result: 5 battle groups off the coast of Iran. Vpribavok this February 7th class submarines "Ohio", carrying a half hundreds of cruise missiles "Tomahawk", arrived on combat duty in the Indian Ocean.
Of particular interest is the concentration of troops on the island of Diego Garcia. According to the U.S. plans by March, the islands should be located 60 units of military aircraft (some of which will be of strategic bombers B-1 Lancer), up to 100 thousand soldiers, as special concrete-bomb capable of destroying perfectly fortified underground bunkers.
But the Arabian Sea — this is not the only area where Iran is waiting for the impact. A huge concern, and Israel. In contrast to the first U.S. officials, Israeli politicians almost openly declared their readiness to storm the nuclear facilities Iran, and even a designated time — not later than illumine 2012. At the moment, in Israel are tested a missile defense system in which there came 15,000 American fighter.
These actions give a clear grasp — the Greater Middle East is preparing for war. Future War to any comparison is not with Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all the more. Then immediately affected the interests of 3 superpowers: China, Russia and the United States. We have heard the idea that the attack on Iran will mean the beginning of World War III. But is it in fact? Let's make out in order.
China. This country has the countless army in the world. Over the past 10 years, China's defense industry has tripled in the army enters an unlimited number of the latest technology being developed modern weapons. Purely theoretical level, the PLA able to make a counter-force of the U.S. military in Iran. But what does war for China? What are the consequences for China if it got involved in this military adventure? First hunt to note that the financial model simply does not allow China to conduct a major war. China's economy is dependent on both the import and export. And when you hit the factory objects that country back to the stone age, it is very forever. Another reason — Tibet. This, and the already restless region flare up like a match and plainclothes war breaks out, which can then capture the whole of China. It will be a sunset dawn superpower.
Also do not forget that China is not run by Hu Jintao, and the Rothschild family, who own more than half of the entire economy China. As it became clear in order to avoid a collapse of production, China increment purchases of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Russia, with all this by reducing the volume of purchases of Iranian oil. The official reason for this — to force Iran lower the cost of oil. On the unofficial reason for you to offer yourself to think …
Our homeland. Russia's interests in Iran are somewhat different from those of China. Iran is the only strategic partner of in the region. Specifically, the support of the Soviet Union in particular in Iran occurred Muslim revolution in 1979, by which came to power pro-Soviet constructive Islamists, shifting with all this pro-Western Shah Mohammad Pahlavi. Prior to 2010, Our homeland has cooperated closely with Iran in the military sphere, while the UN Security Council adopted a resolution prohibiting the export to Iran of all kinds of weapons, as well as devices to them. So, come to Russia in the war for Iran? The answer is very clear — no. It's not just the fact that the Russian economy will not pull the war against the United States. The military-industrial complex of Russia for 20 years, collapsed so much that at the moment is simply no capacity to lead an enormous game. Those small extrusion of the latest technology — it is excellent obmyslennaya PR campaign less. In order to re-equip the entire army with modern weapons, you need as much as was spent on the demoralization of the army, in other words about 20 years. At the moment, all the power of the Russian Federation is the SRF. But waving nuclear club no one will — his own life more.
The future of Iran will be very identical with Vietnam: some areas (priemuschestvenno south-west of the country) will be under the control of NATO forces in the east will work Russian military instructors, teaching Iranian fighter to act against foreign troops. Of course in this situation Our homeland spits on UN Security Council resolution and will supply modern weapons, including offensive, defensive but priemuschestvenno. Iran will and the C-300 and may be C-400, there will be modern aircraft, multiple rocket launchers, as well as tactical missiles. In one I'm sure: Our homeland is not allowed NATO to enter the Caspian Sea. There, at least unofficially, enter Russian contingent.
USA. The fact that the purpose of the West in Iran — oil and nothing else. The United States would never consider Iran as a strategic base for conducting these wars.
Iran capture absolutely not probable. And to capture the Islamic republic is completely unnecessary. If you have a look at a physical map of Iran, the litsezrev that hosts 70% of the country's oil supplies, it will be clear where the window and landing of NATO troops. Catchy that this coastal region (highlighted in a reddish border) is divided by the mountain range under the title Zagros Mountains. A person with knowledge of the strategy, immediately learns how important this mountain range. NATO troops rather block the passes through these mountains, and all the 20 millionth army Iran is on the wrong side of the ridge. To do this, absolutely not necessary and 10 million fighter of thousands of tank
s. Pretty 100000th troops and up to 10,000 units of various armored vehicles. It turns out that not capturing Iran, the United States will achieve the goal that followed. And it will play into the hands of the army of Iran is not a weakness, and successful strategic placement of oil reservoirs.
Yet, we should not assume that Iran is not followed by a military response. Without looking at the feeble military air and naval forces, Iran has severe enough as a small number of missiles and medium-range actions. It's no secret that the area subjected to rocket attacks in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. All of these countries willy-nilly will be drawn into the war. Not in vain in the near future Saud conduct a large-scale modernization of its air force and buy concrete-bomb. In addition, in December 2011, the United States completed the program from the modernization of missile defense systems of the Arabian Peninsula.
It is also possible missile attacks on Israel. It is not luck or good fortune is no guarantee because all the experts are based only on one-sided and unconfirmed data capabilities, as Iranian missiles and missile defense systems in Israel. Yet, the Israeli missile defense system will be what is called, active checks in a future war. After backlash followed not only by the Iran. On the Iranian side will act as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas. It is expected that every day at Israel will fall to 1,000 short-range missiles. In this regard, in the north of the country has currently deployed 8 complexes «Spyder», including 64 launchers. Also accelerated pace is deploying anti-missile systems "Iron Dome" and "Hetz-2." The implication is that the Israeli army will be able to bring down to 80% of all the rockets launched, which is a good indicator, but, nevertheless, is not allowed to avoid the hundreds of victims. For safety reasons, it was announced that the suspension of the only nuclear reactor in Dimona. It will be muted during the month. Also next month in Israel will be the biggest logistical exercise civilians. Will work out the actions of people in a massive rocket attack the whole area of the country.
What are the consequences are so severe military conflict in Iran and for the world as a whole?
First — this is a radioactive area of infection. After the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, the air will rise Cyclopean accumulation of radioactive dust, which is "to powder" is not only Iran itself, and all the surrounding countries, including Turkey, the Caucasus, Pakistan and India. Desert winds dashing smash this infection for thousands of kilometers.
Millions of Iranian refugees will flood areas adjacent to Iraq and Turkey, where they can merge with the Shiite majority and form a united front against American expansion. Will not go away and the Kurds, who are just doing that waiting time to declare its independence.
Means for Turkey will not rest, and so that will have to provide their airfields and NATO forces can still be a "catch" the Iranian missiles.
This war affected and those who are on the other side of the planet. Oil prices soar to at least $ 200 a barrel. Coupled with the oil price will rise, and life itself. At this very well able to make oil-exporting countries. And our homeland as well. Specifically, for this reason, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken on a huge part of the future of NATO military spending in the war with Iran.
As in any war even though there will be winners and losers. Who is who, I leave for you to discuss.