Extraction of oil from the classic 2005 to 2011 has increased by only 3%, to stabilize at around 83 million barrels a day. With all this growing demand measured — for the moment watery consumption of hydrocarbons is 88 million barrels, and five million difference is covered by an even more problematic resources. The volume of world oil exports drop from 2005, due to the stagnation of production and the growth of domestic consumption in oil-producing countries.
If all this is not the economic factors. Back in the mid-1990s. During 1995 — 2004 g's. global oil production to 2.4 trillion won. bucks, investment, bringing a fully meaningful effect in the form of its growth by 12.3 million barrels per day. During 2005 — 2010 the first branch received the same amount, in other words, a one-year investment actually doubled. But, as mentioned above, the effect of these investments was practically zero — managed to keep production at the same level, and not more that.
On closer examination the situation looks even tougher. In parallel with the stagnation in production came falling EROI — in other words the ratio between the energy generated and spent. This ratio is alternately changed from 100:1 in 1930, 30:1 in 1970, and 11: 1 in 2000 to 8:1 in 2012. In other words, the stagnation of production in reality means a reduction nezapyatannoy energy contained in the produced oil.
So, what does happen? Back in 1949, th. At the height of the golden era of the South American oil geophysicist Hubbert made a sudden statement, predicting its imminent end. A mathematical model of the current cycle oil field, he got plot, named its naming. Hubbert curve describes the situation where the exponential growth of production in the first step should be stagnating, and then equally sharp decline. Projecting the model to produce oil in general, geophysicist has made two guesses — that oil production in the continental U.S. will reach the limit values in 1970, and that global Oil production will share the fate of the U.S. for the year 2000. Outlook for the U.S. brilliantly justified. The peak of world oil production in 2000 did not come, and consumers breathed a sigh of relief — but already in the second half of the "zero" it became clear that it could have been earlier.
It is obviously not talking about the immediate end of the oil age and lack of physical supplies of oil. Formally, they will last for decades of production. But to get to them is becoming increasingly difficult, mining is becoming less effective, and test its capacity — problematic. In the end, the volume of extracted cease to react to the growth in demand.
On the scale of individual states' oil peak "has long become basic. U.S. passed peak production in 1971, Canada — in 1974, Indonesia — in 1977, Syria — in 1995, Malaysia — in 1997. United Kingdom in 1999, Norway in 2001 (in 2012, the country produced less than half the oil from production in 2000). States listed company is still quite a very long number of manufacturers is completely subordinated to the Hubbert model. All in all, quite evident that the peak production of "classic", common in the mining and therefore cheap oil has already arrived.
However, the usual oil — it's not so much of a part of the global supplies of hydrocarbons. For example, the oil sands of Canada and Venezuela only contain almost four times more oil than conventional fields. Shale oil — three times more. The role they can play in the global energy sector?
According to the views of an "International Energy Agency," in the U.S. mining "Unconventional" oil is set to peak by 2020. With all of this should be taken into account in-1's, which the IEA in the past fifteen years, is different unrestrained optimism. So, in 2004, the agency's analysts said that in 2030 oil will cost $ 35. In-2, the U.S. is one of the most privileged positions in relation to the shale technology — simply because a sufficient amount of water for hydraulic fracturing technology implementation, and relatively few populated areas, where a "unpunished" mining and the total drilling shafts. On the contrary, the same China, with its impressive formally supplies overpopulated and vododefitsiten.
In general, of course, that the shale technology can make price fluctuations, but to reverse the general trend they fail. In other words, even if you believe the IEA, the end of the era of cheap and easily accessible oil has come — and it is forever. With all of this oil is a personal event — the options on the Hubbert curve rampant everywhere.
A look at the common opponents of oil. Thus, the claim that coal is almost enough for a long time, gives deceit. Technically it is, but, as in the case of oil, the general provisions and supplies, extraction of which makes economic sense — these are two huge differences. Yet the least in comparison with the oil energy coal makes it structurally more sensitive to indicators of EROI — for the huge supplies of coal consumed and the exchange of purchased power simply loses its meaning. In the end, the peak of coal production is also quite far off.
So swiftly have to say goodbye and with cheap uranium. Peak uranium production cost up to $ 40 per kilogram will be in 2015-2017, the creation behind the use of the third decade, and most of the new fields contain the poor and hard ore. With all of this Overhead carbon fuel provokes Cyclopean expansion of nuclear power.
In general, distract from the energy and do some other minerals. Create mercury have gained their own limits due to the depletion of the resource base as early as 1962, but then the poisonous metal is quite simply "opt-out" by reducing consumption. But starting in 1980, one by one began to attack the peaks of production of rare-earth metals. In the "decline" were tellurium (1984), lead (1986), cadmium (1989), thallium (1995), zirconium (1994), selenium (1994), rhenium (1998), gallium (2002). Approaching peak production of indium. Meanwhile, the introduction of rare earth metals — almost the entire base of a longish series sverhtehnologichny production (so, ruthenium is used in the manufacture of aviation turbine). For the platinum group metals peak will be reached in the 2020s.
Everything becomes more tangible and more than a lack of common non-ferrous metals. of lead, silver, zinc 2030 e for copper, chromium, nickel, molybdenum 2040 2050s. In this case, for example, copper is actually deficient. The growth of demand for it is outstripping supply because of all the lower properties of mined ore and a limited number of large new deposits. Goldman Sachs: "We have a strict belief that the market is moving sideways with an acute shortage of cumulative disadvantage is constantly expanding and increasing the average annual prices." With all of this already between 1980 and 2012, the price of the metal has tripled. Prices for the metal ore over the same period increased eight-fold, and this long-term trend.
But in particular, is the situation with gold. His creation of practically grown up since the beginning of zero, despite a fivefold growth prices and an acti
In the end, a kind of peak situation on the food market. Reserves growth darling actually not — end up at the moment on the 1st person has twice the area of the smallest grain crops than initially 1960s. Yield growth is very slow — in the 1990-2010-m it was only about 1% year. Meanwhile, the global population grows and consumes more and more — and the gap between the growth rates of consumption and production growth more evident. As a consequence, at least some sort of force majeure great drought leads to a collapse in the market. The result has become the world food crisis of 2007-2008-th, splash agflyatsii in 2011 — the same situation will play back this year.
So, the resource crisis will have an impressive scale and systematic nature. Similar symptoms have been observed, for example the pre-WWI — but in a much more myagenkoy form. Something similar is really typical, for example, for a huge crisis in the late XVI — first half of the XVII century, who had very specific effects. The wave of wars and uprisings travel from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean (in the Thirty Years War in Germany died every 3rd). The world's population has decreased markedly. Political life has become extremely active.