American journalist Fareed Zakaryya warns that Egypt threatens military dictatorship rather than some form of Islamist rule. We offer you a translation of most of the articles Zakaryi "This parallels between Egypt and the Iranian revolution" with the publication of today's TheWashington Post.
(…) A specter is haunting the West. In 1979, the United States watched a street revolution in the Middle East, which left their ally, the Shah of Iran cut the baklava, and established a theocratic Islamic Republic. Now, watching another street revolution in another country in the Middle East, many seem to scared of mentioning. (…)
All of this will actually happen, but so far little evidence in favor of such terrible scenarios. Egyptian protests continue to be worldly, "Muslim Brotherhood" is one of the many groups that participate in them, and all those groups seeking democracy and human rights. Egipet — not Iran, and between them there are at least a dozen major
differences. Sunni clerics plays no hierarchy or political role, in contrast to the clergy in Iran. But perhaps the most important thing here is that the current Iranian regime is not a popular model in the Arab world. Egyptians saw and Mubarak, and the Iranians, and do not want either one or the other — a survey conducted by Pew Research Center in 2010 indicates that most of them support a democratic form of government.
Fear of this imaginary future distracts Americans from the pressing problems of Egypt: the military dictatorship. Egipet — this is not the regime, utsentravany on the face of Mubarak, despite reports of his wealth and aspirations to consolidate his son as his successor. Since the coup officers in 1952, Egipet dictatorship was founded and controlled by the military and created for the military. The few presidents who ruled the country from the time of the revolution taking place in the officer corps, the armed forces have a huge budget and full independence. The military is actively involved in all facets of society, including possessing vast tracts of land and hundreds of companies.
Who is consolidating its military power. Mubarak's efforts since 2004 to bring civilians and business leaders in the government were canceled last week — in fact, the business was turned into a scapegoat and sacrificed them to the generals could run farther.
The three leaders of Egypt — Vice-President, Prime Minister and Minister of Defense — come from the army. Half of the cabinet — the military, and about 80 percent of governors who have immense powers, also from the armed forces. The military seems to have decided to bring Mubarak sacrifice, but try to manage the change process to preserve its influence in everything. Egypt, do not forget, is still ruled by martial law and military courts.
Many commentators have made parallels with Turkey, where the military played an important role in the modernization of the country. However, the military in Turkey gave power very reluctantly and only because the European Union is constantly pressured to weaken the role of the army in political life. The danger is that Egipet will not Turkey, and Pakistan, a sham democracy in which the real power in the general lobby. (…)
It is worth remembering that led to the growth of Islamic extremism and anti-American anger in the Middle East. The Arabs look to Washington as the center, which is supported by a rigid dictatorship that oppress their people.
The Arabs believe that Washington has ignored this pressure when regimes were closely aligned with U.S. foreign policy. If Washington will now brokered a deal that will establish in power in Egypt, a military dictatorship, de jure or de facto, the consequence will be a deep disappointment and frustration on the streets of Cairo. Over time, the opposition to the regime and the United States will become more solid, more religious and more violent. And it can be a real paralellyu between Egypt and the forces that led to the Iranian revolution.