At least hundreds of thousands of residents of the Moscow region were on Sunday, December 26, without light, heat, and often — water and communications. The cause was held in the night from Saturday to Sunday freezing rain, because of which the trees were covered with ice. Icy trees began to fall, including the wires. To comment on the situation "Polit.ru" agreed climate program director of WWF Russia Alexei Kokorin.
Tell us about the nature of freezing rain, which recently took place in Moscow?
The nature of this phenomenon is very simple — a combination of warm and cold air, their meeting, so the rain and freeze immediately be frozen on the trees, on cars, on any surface, where the water could not resist.
I have seen this many times. This happens quite often in places where it is possible a combination of air masses and the rather sudden changes in temperature. This often happens in Geneva, I've seen it there, such a situation may be in a maritime climate, in the Baltic, in Murmansk are, on the Kola Peninsula, that is, where it can be warm and wet weight, up to the rain, and at ground cold. The so-called cold front can catch up warm and, conversely, a warm front may mix with the cold, it is called "occluded front", a mixture of one to the other.
This is exactly what we are facing. To say that this is something completely new and different, perhaps not. Another thing is that the last time we see these anomalies more often.
Why is that?
This is, unfortunately, a very large part due to human impact on the climate and the fact that our climate is becoming more extreme. He becomes more continental, when we have more and very hot temperatures, and especially cold.
What to do, what to do next?
How to live? The strategic, I hope, and perhaps, hardly anyone doubts this, humanity will cease to climate impact. The climate is back to normal and will be determined, as before, the sun, the earth's orbit, volcanoes and other natural factors. Now, human impact is very strong. Now, that is the last 20 years, the man on the effects on the climate has become more natural. It must pass. While it will not work, fifty years old, in the worst case, a hundred years we'll just adapt. As soon as we reduce emissions, reduce other effects on the climate, we have to adapt to it somehow.
These rains, for example — this is not a one-time event, which we should not be expected in the future. We must be prepared for this. Should have more fluid icing aircraft, for example, that ye do not what is happening at the airports. Our power lines should be better protected from such things next to them to cut down trees or lay underground cables.
We must be ready for that kind of thing we would have to happen. They maybe will not happen every year. Moreover, it is impossible to say in what year and when this might happen. But for sure we can say that the number of such events in the next 20 or 15 years will be much greater than in the previous 15-20 years. Will increase the frequency of severe weather events in general.
By this, of course, necessary to prepare. Notice, heavy snow and heavy rainfall in Moscow was more, although the total amount of precipitation is not statistically different. To this must be ready and urban services, and airports should be able to work in such conditions.
Live as before does not work, it is necessary to adapt to new climate conditions?
Yes, the example of the whole world talking about it, because the climate is changing around the world. Moreover, the trend of change is not just a weak warming, may be even better and forget the word "warming", and talk about the extreme climate. This swinging, swing. That is, somewhere was 10 degrees warmer, but at the same time will be about 10 degrees colder. So it was during the Moscow heat during the cold winter last year. That is, any positive anomaly is negative anomaly, either temperature or precipitation. And the number of heavy wind also increases, increased wind loading on the same building, on the same power line, at home, on the billboards.
You can expect a change for the better?
Change for the better can be expected in the time horizon of 50 years, when there are reasons to believe that the human impact on the climate is stabilized and will go down.
Our climate will continue to change, it is never stable, but will change much more slowly, as the sun, the orbit of the earth affect the climate is very serious, but very slowly. Now it is known that we are heading for a new ice age, but the speed of this motion is 100 times less than the rate at which a person influences the climate. Human influence on the climate significantly across 10 years, and the influence of the sun — on a scale of 40-60 or 100 years. We must take this into account and be prepared for this