Yarashuk Alexander, chairman of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions, vice-president of the International Trade Union Confederation
Shortly after the presidential elections ambassador of one of the EU countries in conversation with me, cried out, "Where is the logic in the behavior of Mr Lukashenko? Remained to hold out for a few hours, and in recognition of his pocket, full legitimacy from Europe and the USA!" To which I replied that there was no point in looking for logic in human behavior, which it never is not controlled. Or, more precisely, guided only one logic — the logic of retaining power at all costs.
What was to be in such circumstances, the opposition's actions? Any price break scenario mode. Were you able to implement it? In a certain sense. This is evidenced by the political consequences that are received after the regime's brutal massacre of protesters on Independence Square. However, this result should not blind us to the fact that a major strategy on the part of those who took part in the election campaign as a candidate for the presidency, was not.
If you have not collected signatures, and on the very top of public instruction given to you to help you to register and, if the government itself is deliberately breaking the law, then it means only one thing. You — not the subject and the object of which is called "presidential elections" and you're taking a big risk by agreeing to play outside the law. Another thing, if you have agreed to these conditions, with the power to participate in the company, it seems that individual candidates was. What should be the action of all the other candidates? Only two options: either immediately unite and put forward a single, or withdraw all not to participate in a farce.
Was not done neither the one nor the other. Opposition candidates have been rescued from the political bankruptcy of the only people who took to the streets en masse. By the way, I agree with Svetlana Kalinkina that most
of them out, not because they were invited back candidates, but because the power of their actions, their insolence and insult them got. So do not flatter yourself shmatlyudnastsyu Square. Rather, it is an occasion to think seriously that is born in the Belarusian society process that the opposition has no direct effect and the risk of losing it all.
Save face opposition helped by their actions and Mr Lukashenko, who is really scared masses of the people that came out to the Plaza. In addition, he could not forgive the people who were willing to play a role in the performance of his sacrificial animals, that they had taken some action not provided for the script. Confirmed once again rule — never get to play with a cheater at cards or thimbles. And when we got — a good time leave. After all, if you play to the end, the scandal over the massacre can not be avoided. But the scandal — not a victory. So I agree with Andrei Klimov, who warned in advance of Vladimir and Andrei Sannikov Neklyaeva the threat of arrest. Third, victory, there was no alternative: either the political inglorious end, if people did not come out (or came out, stood and went, it was quite likely), or the desperate actions, and eventually prison.
Of course, blasphemy will be perfect for them to condemn. This action demonstrates the high human qualities of the candidates, their willingness to samaahvyarnastsi. But the people who claim to be the political leaders of the state, and should have a strategy. Perhaps the noble marshal for rush, as the ordinary Alexander Matrosov, on recess. But these marshals win the war not.
Victory for the opposition in the election scenario, the commission of a "color revolution" was not and could not be. First, no one and nowhere democratically authoritarian rule has not changed. Secondly, and most importantly, under the largest microscope was not noticeable anything that would indicate a serious weakening of the regime positions in society. Controlled and did not cause dissatisfaction socio-economic situation, rising wages and pensions. Measurements sociologists, including NISEPI, testified that the government is confident enough to his re-election.
Therefore, I consider harmful to the cause of the claim that Lukashenko did not win the election.
My personal opinion is that he received the support of 53-55 percent of all those who took part in the elections, is not very different from the figures NISEPI to 58 percent. Harmful to build illusions of victory, which was not. Harmful because in this case it is impossible to create an effective and appropriate strategy for the situation.
Unfortunately, a critical analysis of the presidential campaign of opposition does not and, I fear, will not do. No new ideas, no understanding of what to change, and change dramatically. The same faces, the same voice, the same principles and priorities. Which showed that one — that characterized the classic Svetlana Aleksievich phrase "terribly far they are from the people."
Do not have time to establish a Coordinating Council of Democratic Forces — immediately started fighting for influence, any attempts to use it as a tool of manipulation. No sooner had some close, others busily, in the tradition of pirate rules, began to claim their political legacy. And pulled in foreign voyages. In form — to bring the world the truth about the criminal Belarusian regime, in fact — to extend its monopoly on the right to represent the democratic community of the country. And the main thing — to take control of new sources of financing, which is already very carelessly West promised to do a lot more full-flowing.
Generally, you want to grab hold of his head, watching the behavior of individual politicians. The endless scandals, conflicts in a number of parties and social movements indicate one thing: leaders do not know and do not want to know the elementary — the principles of restoration of communications with each other.
In what turned into, for example, the two parties sign the Belarusian democracy — the Belarusian Social Democratic Party and the Popular Front (Gromada)? Annoyingly not even the fact that one conflict here changes the second, and then how easily create and how willingly participate in them. Moreover, happy to flaunt this mess of dirty laundry in the media.
As recently happened in the BNF? One part of the leadership, obsessive struggle with the other, closed the office party.
The second, equally motivated for this fight vnutryvidavuyu, rested their heads against a closed door and found nothing better to do than to call independent media. Those instead unimat or send them away, say, in the direction of the SAT or BT, filed a public lewdness all this as the most important news. Tell me, this is politics, then what kindergarten? As for me, this is the best way to bring the authority of the BNF until zero.
On the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada) and generally have nothing to say, because it as they say today's advanced, — "full paragraph." I can not believe that could bring to an organization with such senility or not the strongest in the country, human and intellectual potential.
It looks like the same way inferior and UCP, where the governing body of days unanimously expressed disbelief Yaroslav Romanchuk. If you are the principal in respect of Yaroslav, why unscrupulous yourself? Who singled Romanchuk, who should be responsible for it, if not you? Not t
o mention the fact that not everyone found out about the events on December 19, the role and motives of Romanchuk. In short, as the classic, no matter what build — it still turns the CPSU. Which also took out first sentence, and then disassembled. And in what year would live, still drawn to the traditions of the 37th. Maybe because someone charges — always excuse yourself?
In general, pleases the logic of reasoning and evaluation of activities of individual candidates. If you have not planted or released from the "American" and you have something signed as Vitali Rymashevski — you distrust. And when a naive and sincere Vitaly how truly religious man, has not yet learned to lie, do not become a cynic? And if the Belarusian KGB is not so stupid and narrow-minded and someone deliberately let go, to put things in a shadow, and someone deliberately holds, that he then drove the crowd of opposition sheep? This can be ruled out? No.
At the very least, do not need anyone to suspect, nor should anyone express disbelief. You just need to from time to time use your head for its intended purpose — to think.
KGB of his undoubted influence does a tenth of the damage, which is itself in the person of its leaders does the opposition. So I always ironic attitude to demonize the role of intelligence in the democratic movement. It is more convenient to blame the KGB as in Soviet times, once transferred to the Jews than to admit our own inability.
In fact, one of the main causes of degradation of the opposition — the transformation of the political process in the political business. Therefore, the opposition has lost its main advantage — morality.
Listen to the lexicon of those who took part in the presidential campaign. What did they do? Fought for democratic change? No — "dyarbanili, loot sawed, cut grandmother." Some of Dan, as it turned out, "chop" for many hundreds of thousands of foreign rubles. This is not the lexicon and the interests of democracy, ideological fighters, it's vocabulary and interests kryminalizavanay structure.
And if the opposition will not be able to process samaachyshchennya, its future looks grim. Independence Square on December 19 gave hope to the birth of a new movement, new wave, new people and new leaders. However, it gave a chance, maybe the last, today's opposition to be in demand as a reduced force, if it is responsible to take this challenge and develop a strategy appropriate time.
The basic principle of the strategy — none of us will not solve the problem of democratic change. But make them possible in today's environment only with the support of external factors. The real external factor support can be in only one case — in case of consolidation of the forces of all major political players who have an interest in Belarus — the EU, the U.S. and, of course, Russia.
Alexander Lukashenko made the biggest of his rich political life mistake — did not use the opportunity to leave with dignity in the past year. As a politician, he was sentenced itself, and it's a short time, when the sentence will be carried out. He has consolidated itself against all, and most importantly — Russia. Even Alexander Rahr said in an interview that the keys to changes in Belarus are in the Kremlin and the West understands the need to align their plans with regard to Belarus and Russia. A. Lukashenka can save only a fantastic coincidence.
And yet, paradoxically, the Belarusian opposition will lose if it continues its strategy will be based on irresponsible antyraseyskastsi. It was her antyraseyskasts — a kind of lifeline for the regime.
It's time to stop oppose goals of the West and Russia on the Belarusian issue, to speculate on the fictional threat of loss of independence of Belarus from the eastern neighbor. Permanent and
a real threat to the independence of one — is itself the Belarusian regime it. The only right decision — to do everything to facilitate the consolidation of the position of the EU, the U.S. and Russia regarding changes in Belarus.
If there is no understanding of the need to radically, fundamentally change the face of the opposition and its strategy is not going to happen samaachyshchennya, the historical process simply bypass it and throw to the sidelines. There she will live out her days in a marginal, having lost influence on political and social life of the country.
In front of a lot of interesting things. Mode lived his golden decade, lost in vain time and without undertaking modernization. I want to or not, will have to learn to live within our means, without the Russian subsidies, privatization of conduct. All of this is unlikely to be without increased social tension and upheaval.
Then there can be different outcome of the situation, either, following the example of the North African countries, held mass exit of people in the streets, and it is unknown who eventually reap the harvest of the revolution. Or Belarusian issue will be addressed by external forces without our participation, with all the consequences for the country, which arise in such cases. We need this?
I — no. I think my position is shared by many in Belarus. As those who are in the ranks of the opposition and a great multitude of unclaimed, with active citizenship. They are critical of both the government and the opposition in its current state. So there is hope that all is not lost and can be born a force that will take over responsibility for the future of the Fatherland in this fateful moment for it.