Alain Frachon: One thing is for sure: the growing financial and financial interdependence of China and the United States does not cancel their growing strategic rivalry.
Main area of this rivalry — the western part of the Pacific. China seeks to affirm here its political, military and economic advantages, as sovereignty over a number of islands. Yet, on their own rights in their states and Japan, and a bit further south — Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries.
The economic future of all these states is dependent on China. The fact that they economic growth was largely justified by China and its rapid development. At the same time, they are afraid of Beijing, its plans for regional dominance and of the rigidity with which it makes its own territorial claims.
So Makar, all these countries are turning to other Pacific power, the United States: they require them to stay in the region and strengthen local military communications. They are drawn to America for protection, and to China — for development. America obviously listened to them. She believes that she needs to use its own power status number one in the Pacific region, because there are naikrupneyshie markets of the future of the day and the focus of economic growth. In short, he has specifically naikrupneyshim potential for economic development across our planet.
So Makar, United States secure military alliances in the Pacific region, while China sees this as his eagerness to prevent the formation of its power. In other words, he believes a similar aggressive behavior, in the end — we can not exclude the possibility (albeit very limited) impact. Herein lies the complexity of US-Chinese relations — a mixture of interdependence and strategic rivalry.
This situation is partly resembles a cool war, but there are some differences here. The confrontation with the Russian Union was of ideological, military, economic and scientific temper. In regard to the confrontation with China, which itself is a supporter of the market economy, the ideology does not have to read except that the issue of human rights that the U.S. is trying especially not raise.
At the same time, China is a competitor for them from an economic, scientific, and maybe even a cultural point of view. All this in totality makes even the great danger to the zeal of the United States to remain the only superpower than it did with the Soviet Union.
Augustin: But is not this is the financial and financial interdependence is not an obstacle to the military conflict and does not reduce the duel 2-states to normal economic rivalry?
Alain Frachon: No, in the stories have already been cases of this kind, when the two countries are closely economic and financial ties caught up in a conflict situation. So it was, for example, with France and Germany before the war of 1914. At the same time, a new factor, which, appear to be the least possible to make a guess on large-scale military conflict is that China and the United States are nuclear powers.
Yet, one can not exclude that in the context of internal problems China may raise rates in the Pacific region and to perform the surgery on the islands claimed by other countries. Such a move would force the U.S. to side with states which declare their anger on the part of China.
Andre: Can we say that all the conflicts in the Middle East over the past 10 years reflect the rivalry U.S. or the West on the one hand and China, which is a partner of Iran, Iraq and Syria, with other?
Alain Frachon: No, I do not think so. China, for example, imports from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, who are allies of the United States, at least as much oil, if not more, than from Iran and Iraq. China on the Middle East conflict faster supports the position of the Russian Federation and is committed to protecting the main principle for him in the international arena: respect for the sovereignty of other countries.
In matters of the Syrian and Libyan China condemns external interventionism, as if afraid that something similar may one day lead to interference in its own affairs.
In this global strategic plan, I do not think that China is in a camp on the Middle East. It supports a fairly good relations with Israel and imports huge amounts of oil from the Persian Gulf, but at the same time there is a big trade partner of Iran and the money and support Damascus.
Marc-Antoine: Do not you think that an open conflict between China and America — in other words between the most populous country in the world and democracy, as horrifying fire of human losses, already mentally replayed for the West?
Alain Frachon: I believe that we should keep in mind about the 2-points of principle. In 1-x, nuclear deterrence — this is obviously a very severe factor that prevents the appearance of conflict between those 2 countries.
In-2, China (at least, for now) does not seek to change the United States as the world's sheriff. He wants to be sovereign in a particular area, which is considered a classic of their own sphere of interest. And it is a concern of its neighbors.
At the moment, China is not willing to take on the role of the U.S. in ensuring freedom of navigation, the peace process in the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear issue applets. It is with great pleasure leaves all these questions West. The current international system is very profitable for him, he knows how to use it and is not officially committed to any constructive change.
Visitors: But is it possible so far to think in terms of "spheres of influence", as the Chinese do, all the time we live in an open world and beyond?
Alain Frachon: Yes. If you live in Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma, Indonesia, the volume of Chinese direct investment in your country are you the most lively enthusiasm. As Beijing's approach to the settlement of territorial disputes with your state. Or the ability to implement your agricultural products and raw materials in the Chinese market.
Thanks to our own economic and demographic weight, China often has a major impact on their own immediate neighbors.
KiKiTiTi: As to whether the display in the UN Beijing's claims to maritime zone in the "devyatipunktirnoy demarcation line" in the South China Sea, taking into account that some of these islands are located more than 1,000 miles from its coast?
Alain Frachon: Both sides, China and about half a dozen conflicting with him on the subject of State shall submit to the evidence of their own requirements maps and documents of the XIX century or even more of early times. And those and others, no doubt, convinced that he was right, and I would refrain from evaluation justification of the
ir claims. The main thing, I think, is how China expresses its own requirements.
Chinese ships appear in the territorial waters adjacent states are obstacles to drilling, Chinese fishing trawlers organize provocations, etc. Beijing, in turn, agree only on oboestoronnie negotiations with each of the states. China wants to take turns to sit down at the negotiating table with Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. These countries are obviously not burning desire to be alone with the Chinese dragon and the need to make an international framework for the discussion of these territorial disputes. They reach the U.S. role as a mediator, which China, of course, does not want to.
Plok: Maybe if the formation of an "axis of China-Russia" as a counterweight to U.S. power?
Armande: Our homeland is leaning toward America and the West or Asia and China?
Alain Frachon: For Syria and Iran, as the protection of the principle of state sovereignty, China on the side of the Russian Federation and the United States opposes.
All the same, I do not think it can describe a stable strategic axis. Thus, the very small — for two reasons. On the one hand, Our homeland is afraid of the Chinese masses in their own borders.
On the other hand, China is more interested in the relationship with the U.S., despite all their complexity. He believes that America — its only real partner in the international arena, and that he needed her specifically to develop partnerships which will be key to its own development.
China is a strategic competitor to the U.S., but at the same time admires America, not Russia. He thinks that the U.S. will still remain a giant with the military, political, economic and cultural point of view.
Being the second economic power in the world, China understands that he must form a lively and productive business with the United States. I do not believe that Beijing is willing to sacrifice the active links with America for the sake of a privileged partnership with Russia or other naikrupneyshimi developing countries.
Louis: What is the role of India in your geopolitical picture, taking into account that Washington intends to make New Delhi to its main strategic partner in Asia?
Alain Frachon with India, which, by the way, and is itself a nuclear power, with Beijing supports the same things as the other neighbors of China. On the one hand, their economic ties have become stronger. With other hand, the territorial disputes and strategic competition of concern in India and pushed her to the strategic rapprochement with the United States.
Guelfe: Does Europe have a role in this decline? It supports the U.S.?
Visiteur: What is the role of Europe in this duel?
Alain Frachon: Europe for the most part do not play any role in this story. Still, it serves as the main market for Chinese exports, and therefore it can not be ignored. At least, one member of the EU, Germany, is seen in China as a major economic partner. In addition, Beijing is well aware and European scientific power. In the conditions of today's duel in political and strategic terms Europe not at all, because it does not exist as a political entity on the international arena and, as a consequence, in China. Moreover, it can be said that in China it is not and as one of economic education. The Chinese are aware of this, and in their own trade relations with the European countries are trying to play on the existing internal contradictions between them. It seems however, China has diversified its cash reserves with the euro. He has a cautious support for the single European currency, which accounts for slightly more than 20% of its reserves.
At the same time the most reliable currency, in his opinion, is still a buck, because the U.S. is not only economic, and strategic power, which Europe does not. The value of the currency is determined not only economic weight has issued its formation, and its strategic impact. In this respect, the euro is still far to the dollar in the eyes of the Chinese government.