In the next few years, the number of hurricanes, floods, fires and droughts will continue to grow, and the abnormally hot summer in Europe will become a habit.
This is stated in a special report
on managing risks of extreme weather events and disasters, and climate change adaptation (SREX), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The document was prepared by the two working groups, which included 220 climate scientists from 62 countries. The full version of the report is scheduled for February 2012.
The report calculated three options for possible weather changes — at the minimum, average and maximum human interference in the climate system of the Earth. Experts clarify that not all anomalies and natural disasters is a clear relation to global warming. Therefore, in a document for every phenomenon as a percentage of probability indicates how it can be caused by emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
According to published data, the weather, which today are no more than once in a decade, by 2050 will occur every three years. By the end of the century climate anomalies will occur annually. In particular, after 2070 extremely hot summer that struck Western Europe in 2003 and Moscow in 2010, will become the norm for Europeans.
Researchers estimate that the next 30-40 years, the number of hot days will increase four-fold, and by the end of the century — ten times. Likelihood of such developments, the report estimated at 99 percent. By 2050, the maximum temperature of the "heat waves" will rise by five degrees Celsius, and in another 50 years — nine degrees. The probability that this will happen, according to the researchers, 90 percent.
Scientists argue that the hardest hit by climate change arid regions of Africa. In addition, distribution of dry weather will affect Central Europe and the Mediterranean.
Heavy rains that occur every 20 years, in 2100, will go to four times more often.
At risk was, and Russia. In our country, dangerous weather phenomena affect the Urals and Siberia. But the most dramatic effect will be observed in the Arctic.
Increases in damage from natural disasters will be caused not only directly by climatic factors, but also the related socio-economic factors — population growth, urbanization, and water issues. The researchers suggest that climate change and its associated impacts will make some parts of the "less fit to live."
This is the most pessimistic scenario is possible in the event that in the near future greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced at least by half. Already, many weather anomalies caused by global warming, the scientists. Thus, the heat of summer, steady summer last year in the central part of Russia, with a probability of 80 percent was the result of global warming. With this same phenomenon related and snow that fell in late October in the north-eastern United States, and the flooding in Thailand, and the heat, which lasted more than a month in Texas and the southwest United States.
Way out of this trap climate scientists see in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the transition of humanity to "green energy", the expansion of international cooperation, further research and monitoring the situation.