Increase in seismic and volcanic activity
In the media and in some academic publications began to appear different people disturbing statements about approaching some global geological catastrophe.
Press Service of the World Organization for Scientific Cooperation "Science without borders» (WOSCO SWB) asked to comment on the situation of the famous scientist — geophysics, a specialist in the field of seismology and geodynamics, Vice-President of the International Academy of Science H & E (Austria, Innsbruck), Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences , doctor of geological-mineralogical sciences, director of the Institute of Forecasting and Earthquake Research Elchin Khalilov.
- Dear Professor Khalilov, recently appeared in the media a lot of information on the approximation of the global natural disaster. Some attribute this to the possibility of so-called reverse or changing the sign of the magnetic north and south poles of the Earth, others are predicting catastrophic climate change and global flooding of large areas of land, and some predict earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis incredible strength. Other predictions are based on the possibility of passing close to Earth's orbit huge asteroid gravitational influence can lead to global natural disasters in the world. What is really to believe? Please comment on the situation.
"… I'm doing research of seismic and volcanic activity from the point of view of global geodynamic processes of more than 25 years. All these years, I have conducted research with eminent scientist, a world-famous Russian geologist, academician of the USSR Academy of Sciences and many national and international academies, Honorary President of the International Academy of Science (Health and Environment), Emeritus Professor of Moscow State University Viktor Yefimovich Khain. But I want to emphasize that all views expressed by me, based on our many years of collaborative research.
First of all, I would like to note that many disturbing factors you mentioned do have a place to be, but they may not always correctly interpreted. The fact that we carried out in conjunction with well-known scientists, academicians V.Hainym, Sh.Mehtievym and T.Ismailzade study allowed for the first time to set an unusual modern manifestations of cyclicity in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions on our planet. Long ago drew attention to the fact that in some periods of time, as it were, by a special team, start to occur almost simultaneously earthquakes and erupting volcanoes in different parts of the world, then just as suddenly a lull.
In fact, studies have shown that the recurrence in the manifestations of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are not simple. In particular, it turned out that at the time, such as earthquakes and volcanoes are active in some areas (in the compression zone of the Earth), in other areas they calm down (in the zone stretching of the Earth), then the reverse is true, seismic and volcanic activity in the compression zone of the Earth decreased and increased activity in the stretch zones of the Earth. For geologists, it is clear that earthquakes and volcanoes are a good indicator of tectonic activity on the planet. That is, if the active earthquake zones flattening of the earth, which means that the efforts of the compression process on the planet, if activation occurs in the stretch zones of the Earth, mean there is a strengthening process of stretching. Our results have been recognized as a scientific discovery in 2003 … "
- What comes out of this area and where the compression and expansion of the Earth?
"… Belt compression and stretching of the Earth — is a global, relatively narrow and have a huge extent, of volcanic and seismic activity, which allocates more than 80% of the energy of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions around the world. For a better understanding, not going into the jungle of geology, explain that is the upper shell of the planet is divided into giant blocks that move horizontally relative to each other. They are called lithospheric plates. Well, almost all earthquakes and volcanoes of the world are focused on the boundaries of these plates. Where plates diverge — there are processes of lithospheric extension land, and where they face — the compression process.
Almost on the central axis of the world's oceans are oceanic rift zones — giant faults reflecting plate boundaries, where they are separated. It is here that Earth's lithosphere is subjected to tension and renewal. In some areas, these areas are generated and on continents such gigantic rift zone extends north and south along the eastern part of Africa, in the area of Lake Baikal, in Iceland. Belt compression of the Earth — is basically, a giant mountain ranges, and ocean — deep depressions and ridges bordering them in the islands, often volcanic. Classic giant compression zones on Earth are mountain ranges running along the western part of the continents of North and South America, the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt — a mountain range begins with the Alps and reaching to the Himalayas, capturing a part of China and India. In the Alpine — Himalayan seismic belt are some countries of the Middle East, South and South-East Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and part of the South-East Asia.
Speaking of the young, and perhaps the most active zones of compression of the Earth — that is, basically, a country so-called Ring of Fire. "Ring of Fire" — is a horseshoe-shaped band of volcanoes and tectonic faults up to 40 thousand kilometers, encircling the Pacific Ocean that lies along the coast of North and South America to the southern part of Alaska, then turns to Japan, (including the Far East of Russia), the Philippines and Indonesia and finishing near the island of New Guinea, New Zealand and South West Pacific. It is in the "Ring of Fire" is more than 80% of the approximately one thousand five hundred known active volcanoes in the world. For better perception shows us map, which are all marked with my band.
What can we expect in the near future in the regions you?
I'd like to reassure readers who say that no increase in seismic and volcanic activity is not expected that I often did in many statements of previous years. But, unfortunately, I can not do it now, because it is my duty to provide objective scientific information to the public, to try to predict future developments. Actually, in this basic sense of Seismology and Volcanology, or why you need to deal with these studies. Now it became clear that the Earth should be considered as an essential element of the cosmos, is inextricably linked to social processes. The famous Russian scientist A. Chizhevsky in the 20's of last century, devoted much of his scientific papers studying the effect of solar activity on Earth processes of biological, social, psychological and geological character.
Many scientists of the world confirm the influence of solar activity on the activation of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but as a result of these feelings of some ambiguity. In their studies of academics and V.Haina Sh.Mehtieva, we managed to discover new aspects of this issue. It turned out that the solar activity is not the same effect on the activation of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in different regions of the world. For example, with the increase in solar activity increases the activity of earthquakes and volcanic zones flattening of the earth, and in the zone stretching decreases. And, most importantly, the higher the amplitude of the solar cycle, the higher seismic and volcanic activity.
At the same time, the lack of simultaneity of planetary processes of compression and expansion indicates the possibility of periodic changes in the Earth's radius to within a few centimeters, which, in our opinion, as reflected in changes in the angular velocity of rotation. The most pronounced cycle of solar activity is the 11-year cycle. Since the start of the regular monitoring of sunspots, officially registered 23 of the solar cycle, and the 23rd cycle accounted for the year 2001. Surely experts recall that from late 1999 to 2004, there have been many catastrophic earthquake that killed more than half a million lives. The year 2007 can be called the year of minimum solar activity, but since 2008 it has again started to rise. It would seem, well, that so unusual, experienced the same before cycle 23, well, it will still be one. Unfortunately, the 24th cycle is predicted not quite normal.
For any forecast, especially created process models. The most accurate model of the origin of sunspots developed in 2004 by a group of scientists, working under Dr. Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA (NCAR). According to their calculations, the magnetic structure, forming patches are generated in the equatorial region of the Sun. There they are "imprinted" in the plasma, and with it move to the poles. After reaching the pole, the plasma is immersed into the star on the depth of the order of 200 thousand kilometers. From there, it starts to flow back toward the equator at a speed of 1 m / sec. One such circle corresponds to the cycle of solar activity — 17 ½ 22. Their model the researchers called a "model dynamo transport flux." Now we are at the start of the 24th 11-year solar cycle. Laying in the model data on the previous 22-23-th cycle, scientists have figured out how to become the 23rd cycle. The result coincides with the fact that we observe, by 98%. Checking, so their model, researchers at the beginning of 2006, calculated the 24th cycle of solar activity, peaking in 2012.
It is predicted that the 24th cycle of solar activity is 1.5 times more powerful than the previous 23rd. And this means that the number and energy of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions during this period will be significantly higher than all the previous ones. In addition, we found that in the period coincide highs cycles of solar activity, at least three orders of magnitude, leading to a kind of energy resonance. Our research has shown that there is some inertia in high seismic and volcanic activity, in relation to the sun. That is, if the peak of solar activity will be in year 2012, the maxima of seismic and volcanic activity will occur in 2012-2015. I would like to emphasize that this conclusion is supported and installed by us in cyclical activity of earthquakes and volcanic zones of compression of the planet, the peaks of which also occur in this period. In short, from 2012 to 2015, the planet will be, to say, "too hot."
What did the country do you think will be most exposed to natural disasters?
I will start in the first place, with the "ring of fire" — I listed the regions that are in the area above. Ring of Fire is up to its name, because that is where the greatest number located largest active volcanoes in the world. There also will take place and the strongest earthquakes. The second highest level of seismic activity (not volcanic) I would put the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, and in it, the most dangerous areas occur in the north-western part of India, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the southern part of the Central Asian republics, Iran, the Caucasus, Turkey, Italy and Greece. In Italy too big chance to hit in the mentioned period, available on its territory volcanoes Etna and Vesuvius. In addition to these areas, a similar level of expected increase in seismic activity along the entire west coast of North and South Americas.
You have listed many areas, which is scary. Where are all the same is not so much to shake?
Of course, there are many areas that are not affected by seismic and volcanic activity — the so-called intraplate zone or — platform. For example, this entire central and northern Russia, Scandinavia, eastern, central and northern parts of Europe, Australia, o.Grenlandiya, the western part of the African continent, the eastern part of South and North America and the entire northern part of North America. So you can certainly move to these areas. But I want to warn you that some of them may be subject to natural disasters of another nature.
Well, you take away the last hope? What other surprises in store for us nature?
I want to remind you that at the beginning of our conversation you mentioned the alarming information concerning a possible change of sign of the magnetic poles of the Earth. So, I would like to elaborate on this in more detail. The fact is that many often identify magnetic and geographic poles of the Earth. But in reality, this is a completely different concept and layout is not the same. The geomagnetic field is not so constant and it changes from time to time. The role of the geomagnetic field for the existence and development of life on earth is hard to overestimate, because the magnetic field lines of the Earth around the planet creates a kind of magnetic shield that protects the Earth's surface from harmful to living things, cosmic rays and the flow of charged particles at high energies.
The latest data on the state of the Arctic magnetic pole (moving toward the East Siberian world magnetic anomalies across the Arctic Ocean) showed that at the beginning of 2002, the drift velocity of the magnetic north pole has increased from 10 km / year in 70 years, up to 40 km / year in the year 2001.
In addition, according to IZMIRAN (Moscow, Russia), there is a voltage drop earth's magnetic field, and very uneven. According to scientists from IZMIRAN, acceleration of poles (an average of 3 km / year) and move them through the corridors of the inversion of the magnetic poles (400 paleoinversy revealed these corridors) leads to the assumption that this variation of the pole is to be seen not a digression and polarity of the magnetic field of the Earth. In 2007, the Center for Space Research in Denmark, after the analysis of the latest data received from the satellite, which monitors the magnetic fields of the earth, came to a disappointing conclusion. According to Danish researchers, there is an intensive preparation of the geomagnetic field of the Earth to a reversal of the magnetic poles, and it could happen sooner than expected.
But I would like to emphasize that geophysicists can alarm fact speed up the movement of the magnetic poles in the last four decades, nearly five times. What is the basis of movement of the magnetic poles? First of all, the processes occurring in the Earth's core. If the magnetic poles began to move much faster, and the mean energy in the Earth's core was significantly increased. At the same time, as we know, deep energetic processes in the Earth's core is driven giant convection currents in the mantle that move, in turn lithospheric plates, the boundaries of which earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Therefore, a five-fold acceleration of the magnetic poles indicates that the speed and scale of energy processes in our planet has risen sharply, in line with our findings on the approximation of the period of unusually high seismic and volcanic activity. As for climate change, they will be the result of the above processes.
What are you trying to say that global climate change will be linked and earthquakes and volcanic eruptions?
You know, global climate change in the last decade, and the subject of many studies, most of them, the main role in the man-made global warming is given to human activities. But is it really? In his works, we, along with Victor Efimovich Khain conducted a detailed comparison chart cycles of volcanic activity over the past 150 years, and the average annual temperature changes on our planet. So, the result exceeded all our expectations. First, in the form and period of the cycle graphs almost repetitive. But, but, the cycles in the graph of rising temperatures, about 15 years late in relation to the cycles of volcanic activity. At the heart of this delay is a cause-effect relationship between these two processes.
What is the mechanism of cause and effect of volcanic activity and changes in the Earth's temperature? Increasing the number of eruptions increases revenues of volcanic gases into the atmosphere contributing to the greenhouse effect and, as a consequence, lead to an increase in atmospheric temperature. From 1860 to 2000, the number of volcanic eruptions has increased by 80%.
The increase is almost twice the average annual number of volcanic eruptions should lead to a doubling of atmospheric volcanic gases, primarily CO2, which play a leading role in shaping the greenhouse effect and raising the average temperature on Earth.
Based on established our laws attempt to forecast the long-term, as changes volcanic belts of compression of the Earth and the global mean temperature change on the planet until 2060. Global increase in the average temperature of the Earth, against minor variations, the results of our research will be observed from 2020 to 2050. Increases in annual temperatures, of course, will be accompanied by the melting ice, sea level rise and fall to the ground precipitation. You want to say that even if people are saved from earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, they catch up with another problem — global flooding huge areas of land?
I would not want to be unfounded, so I resort to the help of the official data of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/ According to the report of this commission is to come to the "greenhouse" warming, causing may melt some ice sheets and sea level will rise by 5-7 m in just ten years. This will be a truly global catastrophe: the whole country (eg the Netherlands), the largest city in the world — New York, Tokyo, Moscow, etc. — will be under water (IPCC, 2007).
The difference of our findings with the Commission IPCC only in assessing the extent of the geological factor in global warming. If the Commission assigns the main role of the man-made man, we believe that the role of natural processes is significantly higher. In our opinion, can not be identified as a separate independent track global climate change in isolation from the overall context of the geological evolution of the Earth. True, people of no easier. Although perhaps the realization that all this is not so much to blame human civilization as nature, somewhat reduces our sense of guilt towards future generations.
- You want to say that is the end of the world?
Of course not — this is not the end of the world, but it is one of the most difficult stages in the life of human civilization. During this period, we should expect a large number of casualties, the worsening global economic crisis, destructuring of public policies and international coordination. But in certain areas would be relatively easy and these areas can be defined in advance to prepare for them in advance of the infrastructure.
- You predict the plight of entire generations, but do you have and academician Victor Efimovich Khain proposals, if not to prevent, at least to some reduction in the catastrophic consequences of impending disasters?
There certainly are, and I'll list them here:
- — First of all, you need to accept the UN Framework Convention on global natural disasters, following the example of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in response to the growing amount of scientific evidence that global climate change is determined by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse atmospheric gases.
- — The second step is to create the United Nations Special Commission on the International Intergovernmental example of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to include it on the ad hoc expert group of leading scientists in the fields of seismology, volcanology, geodynamics, climatology, meteorology, hydrology, and other .
- — The third step is necessary to urgently develop and approve the International Programme on the study and prediction of seismic and volcanic situation, coupled with global climate change.
- — The last and final stage of this process should be the establishment of a unified international financial fund and the financial mechanism for the preparation of humanity for possible global natural disasters on a planetary scale. This phase will also include the identification of the most stable and secure areas on our planet, and create for them a special infrastructure for accommodation and subsistence large number of refugees who will be at the heart of the emergence of new centers of human civilization.
In closing, I would like to stress that only by combining their efforts, economic, technical and human resources, regardless of race, religion and cultural differences, human civilization will be able to cross the threshold of that great, which has prepared her nature. It is this stage of her life will sprout to create a new formation of human society with a completely new positive thinking.
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