According to German researchers, the level of water in the oceans is increasing much faster than previously expected, and residents of low-lying coastal areas around the globe will soon have to face the threat of flooding.
Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change learned from recent satellite observations, and found that over the past twenty years, sea levels rose by an average of 3.2 millimeters per year, which is 60% faster than thought, UN experts. In this matter, tried to understand energy program director of Greenpeace Vladimir Chuprov.
He noted that the statement of the possibility of flooding the world are becoming more frequent. And mention different dates. In his view, 3 millimeters per year — it is not critical for us, but if you consider a few decades, it is becoming a problem for our grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Scientists project that in this century, the general rise of the water level in the ocean can reach a meter, and if the use of the results announced in Doha, this may be one and a half meters. What does it lead to? Dozens, maybe hundreds of millions of densely populated coastal regions — South-East Asia, North-East USA, get into the zone of permanent or periodic flooding. Millions of people falling in waves of migration of climate refugees — it automatically leads to social disruptions and economic problems. Some of the scholars, including Al Gore and was compared with the effects of World War III — the global budget could lose about 20%.
How accurate are these predictions of sea level rise? There is a theory that the climate is evolving spiral and the world has a similar warming occurred. Is this water level rise will result in flooding of nearly a third of the countries?
According to Chuprov, confirm the findings of scientists instrumental measurements, sea level at the moment, air temperature, as well as models that use data that happened thousands of years ago is happening now. Indeed, the development is a spiral, but at the moment the compression of the spiral. About a hundred thousand years ago, over the territory of Moscow was an ice shell, reach km altitude, and before the climate was tropical. During these decades, irrational human activities is much accelerated these processes. Temperature rose in the past, but not so rapidly. In the modern world view of winter, natural phenomena in different areas vary within a single generation. So now it really develops a worst-case scenario.
However, there is some good news — we have not passed the point of no return, and it is not linked to any particular date. Scientists believe that the sooner people will start to reduce greenhouse emissions — carbon dioxide emissions, which is due to the burning of coal, oil and greenhouse gas emissions, the easier it will be to achieve manageable, not to get into a situation where the average global temperature has risen by two degrees. In the future, mankind will simply adapt to the new conditions.
If it starts to reduce greenhouse emissions, the oceans and the atmosphere will be able to assimilate the amount of carbon that is extracted from the ground, not allowing the temperature to rise by two degrees. The scientist said that this could do and after 2020, and even in 2030. But after 2020, it will become much more difficult, will require major economic losses, and the likelihood, however, is reduced.
Necessary to adopt a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, progress in this direction is observed. In the first place, are considered national economic interests, and in the short term. Although now there is evidence that the world's loss of national and global GDP is the first interest.
Therefore necessary that everyone did their best at their level. Need a general introduction of energy saving technologies in the first place to go not only to the interests of transnational oil and gas corporations, but of all mankind. The overall goal of humanity — is a transition to a low-carbon economic model, the introduction of a green economy and energy.
The results were announced at the UN conference on combating climate change, taking place in Qatar. As noted by climate scientists, the average global temperature has increased in line with the UN projections, which should convince the skeptics who believe global warming is strongly exaggerated.
Category: Scientists, experts, science