The coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Viktor Ivashkevich.
In preparing this material, I tried not to use the emotional statements, biting epithets, artistic and journalistic techniques (for which sometimes hides the lack of thought), and the approach to the analysis of what was, what is and what will be, as calmly and rationally.
For that, I made a number of questions and he himself tried to answer them.
On what the last years keeps mode?
First, the social contract of the dictator and the common people: "I will support the growth of salaries, pensions and real income, you — not getting into politics."
Second, on the passivity of people in moral and aesthetic opposition to the regime: "The dictator can not win, whatever we do, it's still useless, only hurt the family and myself."
Third, balancing between the West and the dictator Russia: "Only I am the guarantor of the independence of Belarus from Russia's imperial pretensions. But I am a real ally Russia in its opposition to NATO".
It's a balancing mode allows you to receive financial aid from both Russia and the West, which in turn helps to fulfill the "social contract."
What are the objectives set myself regime on the eve of the election?
First, through the imitation of democratic elections will provide recognition of the elections Europe and Russia.
Second, to provide a pyramid scheme, which the dictator is building for several years, with new financial injections from the West and from Russia.
Third, split the organized opposition to the "constructive", which will allow the simulation of the evolution of the liberal regime in the West, and on the "unfrozen", which will serve as a scarecrow for the West (after all, it is a pro-Russian), and Russia (after all, she's pro-western).
What goals have been set by the opposition that really want to win over the regime?
We had to try to blow up the situation and break up of the regime, namely:
· Breaking the simulation games dictator and make the non-recognition of these elections Russia and the West.
· Stop the financial support of the regime both from the West and from the East.
· Breaking the creation of a "constructive opposition" and put all the opposition in the state of uncompromising struggle against the regime, "Victory or Death."
And this purpose it was necessary to seek in a pseudo-democratic electoral farce when some opposition politicians decided to secure a place in a "constructive opposition" or as a cautious, constructive and evolutionary ("sober"), reformers, or in the form of "hard-line fighters" with Russia, the threat which the dictator — the lesser evil.
In this situation, to choose a single candidate or declare a total boycott was impossible, as too different goals set for ourselves are different candidates.
What actions could break up of a dictator?
First, we must have at least one candidate to get rid of the stigma of "pro-Western" or "pro-Russian" and change it to the image of the state probelorusskih uncompromising fighter against the dictatorship, which can establish mutually beneficial relations with the West and with Russia.
Secondly, it was necessary raskaturhats mass opposition-minded people and make them believe that the break up of the dictator's possible.
Third, it was necessary to declare a "crusade" of all moral people against the dictatorship, and thus force all candidates or take a position more clearly associates the regime to join the uncompromising criticism of the regime (in order to completely lose the support of its actual and potential supporters).
Fourth, it was necessary to force the regime, or to go further through democratic concessions or put aside all the games and the mask and show his real "mug" or "fangs."
First, negative campaign in the Russian media against the dictator, the collection of signatures, spicy-election campaign of candidates hyped Belarusian society, which led to a massive vote against the dictator and a mass protest on December 19.
Secondly, the regime has lost legitimacy inside. Much of the Belarusians believe that the dictator is not scored more than half of the votes, and all Belarusians believe that the figure is 80% — this is the result of fraud. Its wild repression on election day and after the dictator aroused considerable indignation at the attitude of the Belarusian regime, sympathy repressed opposition and a wave of real solidarity with them.
Third, both in the West and in Russia a wave of indignation mode behavior and solidarity with the repressed, leading to an unequivocal rejection of the elections in the West and equivocal and ambiguous position of the Russian leadership.
Fourth, the financial pyramid regime has lost external power that threatens her fall, causing to be buried so-called "social contract."
Fifth, has failed (at least for the near future) attempt to create a "constructive opposition" because all the opposition should work together to protect themselves from reprisals, and all attempts to appease the regime perceived as a betrayal of the democratic community.
What do I do now?
It is necessary to continue the attack on the dictatorship (which is offensive, not protection) and seek the early release of all political prisoners and to stop political repression and a new election without a dictator.
To achieve these goals, you need:
· Publicly declared support these goals by all democratic structures.
· Publicly declared all the structures of a democratic society position on the need for the introduction of mandatory economic sanctions against the regime.
· Active and mass media campaign in Belarus to further delegitimize the dictatorial regime: "The dictator has the power illegally. It is not a guarantor of stability and the cause of destabilization. He can not unleash any problems, because he — the main problem of the Belarusian society. There are many worthy people who could replace him, and you will choose them, if we achieve free elections. "
Everyone can find an opportunity to join this activity, unless he wants to. As for the single leader of the opposition, he gradually found
· As one who scored the highest number of votes in the elections (see the results of the vote on the polling stations where there was a clear vote count).
· As one who keeps hitting, and does not act with questionable statements on BT.
· As one who will not go away after the release of the shadows to "better times"
· As one who supports most of the Belarusian society.
· As someone who will be willing to engage in dialogue both in the West and in Russia.
PS Quite understand the motives of those cry public figures who want to get in "constructive opposition" and came under repression. Humanly possible to feel sorry for them. But better still accept the new reality and to join the new processes than the cry of a dream come true.