— Our home is on the brink of catastrophe. The Russian economy, frozen in their own archaic, in the medium term (which is 3-5 years old) will be unable to meet even those low standards of living, which is currently characterized by the majority of the population.
This is stated in the article "How not to lose the future" Managing the Social Policy Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, a member of the Institute of Contemporary Development Yevgeny Gontmakher. Taking into account the relevance of the topic, RIA "New Region" resulting in the publication of a professional "Everyday the journal" it is:
"At the moment it is very stylish criticize the existing political regime — and for good reason. But for some reason in the main debate revolves around the election procedure, party building, the judiciary, freedom of assembly and the state of the media. In fact, despite the importance of the above-mentioned problems of Russian life, drop out of sight the other — and really important — the fact: as a result of the policy, which was carried out over the past years, our homeland is at the brink of catastrophe.
It would seem that such a statement is extremely alarmist nature: there is no hunger, mass unemployment or other similar disasters. But in the criteria of the XXI century social tragedy can be caused, for example, dashed hopes and prospects of actual loss, as weaning (unfair, from the standpoint of the majority), at least part of what may be called the old-fashioned social conquests. This type of accident is very pressing issues in today's Russia.
Point is that Our economy, frozen in their own archaic, in the medium term (which is 3-5 years old) is unable to provide even those low standards of living, which are currently characterized by the majority of the population. If the years of the oil well being at the expense of a small portion of the acquired gratis GDP could throw crumbs retirees, state employees, officers, creating in them a sense of positive dynamics of wealth, then at the moment, with more than $ 100 per barrel, funds to maintain this momentum is not enough.
Even according to official data, the real incomes of the population for the first few months of this year decreased in comparison with the figures of a year ago, there is growing dissatisfaction with the work of health and education (especially school). But the main thing is different: people have lost faith in the fact that they will be better to live one day, everyone expects some pinned by country. For example, in the form of increasing the retirement age, a dramatic expansion of payment for medical and educational services and upcoming accelerated growth in utility tariffs.
Power, despite the attenuation of even a small growth, hitting to the same period in the pre-election fever begins to act old, almost Russian way — handing out regular handouts. Here, teachers and promised to increase from 1 September payroll by 30%, and the officers from January 1, 2012 will increase by 2-3 times Monetary allowances, etc. etc. How sad note to the Ministry of Finance, if all these promises to fulfill, to obtain the federal budget deficit-free in the future, the average price of oil will be $ 147 per barrel. Not long ago, this option was at $ 90. I wish to recall that, as predicted by the Ministry of Economy in the coming 10-15 years, oil will cost $ 100 per barrel.
But apart from purely macroeconomic risks are enormous, and fundamentally different: people naturally will not give up his proposed handouts, but they are well aware of how these funds were given, and so they will be taken back, for example, through inflation, creeping introduction of charges for those social services that not so long ago were formally free, manipulation with the mathematics of calculating pensions. And these expectations are not unfounded.
An appropriate example: chemotherapy, which is used for the treatment of cancer patients, is excluded from the list of high-tech medical care. What does this mean? Exactly what is now for this function is sometimes very expensive to pay no federal budget and regional authorities, in which, with very few exceptions, there is no means for it. That will have to pay the most unhealthy bank, if he or his family there. And if these funds do not?
Comes from the Ministry of Public Health and other brand freshest initiative — to revise the so-referred to as "pension formula" or, more simply, the rules for determining the size of pensions. It is proposed to go back to the rules in effect before 2002. Then use a stiff invention of the late 1990s, when a severe shortage of funds led to the months-long delays in payments of small pensions — "personal coefficient of the pensioner." With his help almost redistributed relatively large contributions from the big salaries (and means advance expropriated future regarding the highest pensions of these employees) in favor of the poorest older people who are literally fighting for survival.
In addition, the Health Ministry proposes to introduce an additional stop, reflecting the demographic and macroeconomic features of the situation. About demography no illusions: Russian society is aging, and the ratio of the number of elderly people and working changes in favor of pensioners. Because of the Health Ministry (read between the lines) is almost the government has the ability to make on-line to further restrict the growth of pensions. But here's the link to the macro-economy is very principled. If at the end of 1990 all the circumcision made out of desperation (remember that the price of oil did not exceed $ 20 per barrel), then offer it at the moment, with more than $ 100 a barrel, a trivial symbol of impending systemic economic problems.
I will not go into detail about the prospects for the development of our economy. The actual consensus of professionals is clear: if not urgently proceed to full-scale institutional reforms in virtually all spheres of our life, including the political and judicial system, there is nothing we can not expect a decent. Declaration on the next attempt of doubling GDP — now until 2020, with an emphasis on today's "stability" — a purely pre-election move.
In 2012, when the new president and the new government will begin its obligations, they will face a problem:
— Real, not feigned reform, which only success and a chance for at least maintain, and later increase the standards of the overwhelming majority of Russians,
— Stability that is equivalent cutoff of social responsibility to preserve the stability of rickety economical system, plus a massive propaganda juggling such as "nothing is happening" or — in the latter case — "you need to temporarily tighten the straps for the light to come, which will occur in 2020." Also, of course, various resuscitation "orange" threat.
Those who want to see the point of view of the creator of the details of the first scenario can go to the website of the Institute of Contemporary Development and read the report "Giving the future. Strategy 2012 ". Let us consider more carefully the second scenario, the more so as long as it is much more affordable than the first.
Read propaganda about not going — we were nothing new and "our spin doctors" can not come up. But the circumcision social responsibilities have something to say. It's in one form or another, creeping manner, will go virtually all social fronts.
About the pension I have already mentioned. It only remains to add that their growth will not keep pace with inflation, will be frisky alignment (of course, for the real decrease) the size of pensions. With all of this to the poorest older people, local authorities will pay extra to regional cost of living, the value of which will also be artificially frozen. With all of this society will often remember that poverty is eradicated in the middle of the elderly.
Sharply tightened requirements increase the already considerable red tape to obtain disability status and accordingly disability pensions and social benefits to pay for housing, medication supplies, travel on public transport.
In health care, the available set of free services due to underfunding of the acquired real price of medical services will be reduced to a purely symbolic things. The rest on the principle of pay or does not claim. At first, this trend will spread to the most expensive health care sector — high-tech medical care (one of the examples I have cited). Do not wait for 2012, has already begun the process of so-called network optimization medical institutions: the lock small clinics and medical and health posts in rural areas. Those rural residents often can not get even the simplest means. In the upcoming process will spread to the town under the pretext of the need to focus, first, doctors and the respective hospital beds in specialized centers, public Tipo arise ability to increase property maintenance. This would be socially justified if special centers were created in addition to, and not instead of today's medical facilities, and everywhere.
In education, we should expect all of the same "network optimization", which will affect, first, small schools and small schools in the towns, as the size of the actual freezing of standards of per capita fundingI am. Perhaps the situation is relatively better with universities, where there is currently almost half of the seats are paid.
In the housing sector we can not escape from the steady increase in utility tariffs and the introduction of burdensome for the majority of the real estate tax.
How you will maintain the population in the event of such developments? First signs are already visible. This is, first, the growth of immigration sentiment and, as already mentioned, the loss of belief in the next day.
Whether it will be poured into open political opposition to the authorities? In their mass I do not believe it: most of the company accumulated so much apathy from the turmoil of the past 20 years, irritation and dissatisfaction expressed apathy and degradation of home, small abominations against the hated state — a state-owned nibudt of something underhand to break or steal, and to write word on the fence of 3 letters or, in fact, the same show phallus local FSB. But the vandalism, along with a massive sense that the government takes your most vital, can be fully applied to any seem from the underground charismatic, who will arrange at first in his own town, and later in other places the latest Manezhku. For the current government, which is carried away by their work, almost lost virtually all of the abilities of the municipal government, it may be an insoluble problem of. The upcoming course of events is unpredictable — and most alarming.
So do all the same for the fact that this scenario does not take place?
In 1-x, do not give up and do not lose heart.
In-2, do not be silent, and find like-minded allies.
B-3, to think and to propose specific steps that would, if implemented, assist to change the vector of development of in the way of progress. "