If the Afghan Taliban will be included in Uzbekistan, we will have to fight in the steppes of Kazakhstan.
We continue the story of possible military dangers of. Recall that on December 1, today, the Russian armed forces fled to the latest management structure. Formed and began to operate four operational-strategic commands — the "West" and "South", "Central" and "East". "Joint venture" with the help of professionals decided to analyze the nature of threats strategic disposition in each of these areas, and the balance of power with our potential adversaries. Material available to the Institute provided editorial Political and Military Analysis (IPVA).
According to the views of our professionals, a terrible situation for the Russian Federation formed around the perimeter of the border with China. This was discussed in the first part of this article under the same title — "Russia has taken a radial defense." The focus of the "joint venture" now — the situation in the zone of responsibility of the Operations Command (USC) "Center".
This USC formed out of the former Volga-Urals Military Area (headquarters — in Yekaterinburg). District always listed as logistical created for reserve training for border units and the West, East and South. Because modern weapons and military equipment was supplied last. This, priemuschestvenno, grounded and present potential USC "Center". It — the weakest of the four. Apparently, that's why on the days of the Ministry of Defence has decided to reassign Ekaterinburg to the same 74-th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, stationed in Ugra. Previously, it belonged to the Siberian Military District and had to retreat to the USC "East".
On how to be cumulative actions in the area of responsibility of USC "Center" in the foreseeable future, the reporter understood in conjunction with the Deputy Director Alexander IPVA Hramchihin.
— So, the military threat number one — China. Meanwhile, back in the 90s when I served in the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, Russian General Staff argued that the biggest geopolitical threat to the Russian Federation related to Central Asia. Because there, across the river Panj — Afghanistan. A is — the Taliban. It was believed that if they are to translate the idea of the creation of a global caliphate will rush in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — and then it will start. How to react to this is our North Caucasus, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan? Moreover, in those places strong Islamic extremists. However, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, for example, operating underground.
— By the way, this is a very powerful organization, a recognized terrorist world in many ways. The Taliban in Afghanistan and many Uzbeks. They are there even more than the Chechens and Arabs.
— Even so? Mercenaries or what?
-You can not call them mercenaries. This ideological extremists. They do not take up an instrument for the money. Mercenary can outbid. It will not work. Generally, when we talk about Islamic terrorists, the word "mercenary" need to be used very carefully.
— It seems that there may be, these factors existed in the 90s. To fend them in the Volga region formed our unique for that period of the 27th Guards Motor Rifle Division peacemaking. And all the last of the Volga-Ural military district was focused on the Central Asian direction. Something has changed since then?
— Since that time there were fighters in Afghanistan, NATO's first Americans. The Taliban's hands are tied until the war with them. But in Afghanistan, of course, and now comes a danger to Russia. Especially considering that the departure of the Yankees will start from there for another year. Clearly, then in power in Kabul, here come the Taliban regime. They immediately begin to religious expansion into Central Asia. And then can move in a northerly direction. But we are with Afghanistan at least do not have a common border. In order to get to us, the Taliban must first capture the former Russian republics of Central Asia. Make it easy, especially with respect to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are very weak militarily and economically.
— In Tajikistan, placed our 201st military base and in Kyrgyzstan — the air base in Kant, which were included in the operational-strategic command "Center". They can somehow influence this scenario?
— Has no effect. The base will be in complete isolation. From Kant's with all this aircraft will be able to fly at least in Russia. The base in Tajikistan, I think, just run away, as virtually the entire rank and file there — Tajiks received for contract service. Only officers of Russia. These garrisons are here blocked by the Taliban and local gangs. Will assist them nothing.
— For what we hold in Tajikistan, the 201st military base?
-That local opposition toppled regime Rahmon. More no reason. But let's talk further. As in the case of the invasion of the Taliban will be with Uzbekistan, how to behave in the regime of Islam Karimov? Uzbekistan borders with all this, with all the countries of Central Asia. People in it than in any other adjacent republics combined. There, the most powerful army in the region. Karimov has long since distanced itself from the Russian Federation and its allies in Central Asia. Will he make war with the Taliban — a big issue. Yes, if gone, long time to live?
— Then Central Asia converted for us into one large Afghan.
— Naturally. Once in the region, with the power of the latest flare up ethnic conflict. Shoot will be on all sides. Strshnaya situation. If the action in the foreseeable future will go in that direction for us is the only hope — to keep Kazakhstan, the rest will have to throw in the lurch.
While in Kazakhstan is not very strong Islamic factor, many Russian, fairly powerful army. Because there is hope that at least we will deduct it. If we lose and Kazakhstan — complete tragedy. Then we get from Astrakhan to Barnaul continuous leaky border, which is virtually impossible to defend. Kazakhstan to hold up in any way. Especially since it is ready once held. I believe that the main task of this particular USC "Center". Well, more training of reserves for Russian connections east.
— What is the correlation of forces in the central direction?
— Here the main question is, who consider the balance of power? Who's a major enemy in Central Asia? If we talk about the Taliban — so the number of these gangs and unknown to themselves. At the theoretical level, our adversary in the region could be even Uzbekistan.
— Under what options can this happen?
— If Islamic fraternizing with the Taliban in the Ferghana valley still happen.
— In other words, let's say, fall, President Islam Karimov in Tashkent to power specific Islamic regime will come …
— Yes. But with all this, it is not clear how
the proposed Uzbek army. And if her arms get this newcomer Islamic regime. Will the new owners to learn it?
If you take a distant place — at a theoretical level, our opponent is able to be Pakistan. If, again, the same, and it came to power Islamists. Pakistan has a very powerful army, but all the same it is very far away from us. In addition, in the event of a conflict with Pakistan, Russia does not believe that India remains on the sidelines. She and Pakistanis davneshnie scores. Because even if the radicals prevail in Karachi, they most likely will not march to the north, their hands are tied in the south-east.
— It turns out that the Central Asian sector real danger one — some of the gang from Afghanistan in droves scamper through the former Soviet border, the local population and their support of our sister republics of the former mufti war breaks out.
— Something like this. At the same time, there will be a guerrilla war. And if someone we all still go there, then it's likely to be airborne forces, which are now, as you know, are the reserve of the Supreme Commander. They have accumulated a lot of experience of this kind of fighting in Afghanistan and Chechnya. They are mobile, have, in the main, light weapons, which is a rapidly flip over great distances. Airborne and submit directly Moscow. Marines will collect and send in a war zone with all of. USC troops "Center" in central Asia is unlikely otpravlyut. Because we talk about some numerical balance of power in Central Asia, we can now only a little bit of a big convention. In case of severe war fate of the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan will be sad. In other words, I repeat, here, if I have to, to make war will be airborne.
— Because General Shamanov is making a huge deal when the defense does not give the Minister Serdyukov and reduce them?
— Yes. Now it's our only actual power frisky response. Not including them in Central Asia to wage war to some.
— Then what USC created the "Center"?
— A reserve for other commands in case of occurrence of wars in other directions. Or troops to support the Kazakh Army, if we have to fight for the retention of Kazakhstan.
— And what has USC "Center"?
— There's absolutely not enough troops, as they are placed in the interior of the country. Aviation in fact. Only one regiment of MiG-31, which is near Perm and solves the tasks of air defense. Because in the case of regional military conflicts in any case will not be focused anywhere. USC is the only air base "Center".
— Bombers or attack aircraft, we is not there at all?
— Only strategic bombers Tu-160 and Tu-95 in Engels. But they, too, are subject to outright Moscow. And not provided to the Taliban.
— So Makarov, for the impact from air to ground enemy at USC "Center" does not?
— It's nothing. However, there is still storage base. But I do not know in what condition the aircraft technician there. Especially since this is the main junk such as the Su-17 and MiG-23. I doubt that these machines in general can ever be off the ground.
— Especially since it's probably already been pilfered. As we have taken on the bases of storage — rip out the blocks with precious and non-ferrous metals, and more.
— Here, here. Eventually need to see the version of the traditional war with the armies of the far abroad countries into Central Asia. With respect to the considered region, only three options — Pakistan, Iran and China.
— Pakistan away.
— Yet, under certain circumstances, its military might will support the expansion of the Taliban in the north. Therefore it is necessary to take into account the ability of the armed forces of Pakistan. And they are today one of the world of strongest. We will not open a discussion here its nuclear missile program from, deals with the ordinary forces. For most of the characteristics of the Pakistani army has an advantage over the vast forces of the USC "Center".
— What's Next? Iran?
— Iran, the world has only a maritime border on the Caspian Sea. It is not only in Central Asia, and the Caucasus, in other words against him should wage war at least to the same USC our "South". With all of this it should be noted that the park arms of Iran is very eclectic, it consists of a sample of Western and Soviet-Russian, Chinese and domestic production, a significant part of the equipment is very old and has no parts. In view of these developments do not think that the danger from Iran is real. In general, the main question — why we need to fight a war with Iran? Foisted upon us Yanks anti-Iranian paranoia own being very anti-NATO recalls the paranoia in Russia, in other words a very artificial. Perhaps the possibility of war with Iran, the Russian Federation did not higher than with Uzbekistan. Perhaps even lower.
— China remains the same?
— There was still hopeless, as in the area of responsibility of the USC "East". Even though the PLA Lanzhou Military District, aimed at Central Asia is the largest by area, but only a fifth of the combat potential of China's seven military regions (and in the Air Force — even sixth). In other words, it is similar to the destination on the Russian United Shipbuilding Corporation "Center". But
still Lanzhou Military District stronger armies of all the bordering states of Central Asia, China and our USC 'Centre' combined.
COMPOSITION AND DEPLOYMENT OF TROOPS "OSK" CENTER "
7th Separate Guards Tank Brigade (Tchebarkul)
15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Chernorechie, paragraph Roshchinskiy)
21th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Totskoe Orenburg region).
23rd Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Samara)
28th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Yekaterinburg)
74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Yugra)
201st military base (Dushanbe, Tajikistan)
6977 th Air Base (Perm)
999th Air Base (Kant, Kyrgyzstan)
ARMS OF THE ARMY USC "CENTER"
Rocket launchers "Tochka-U" -24
T-72 — 381
BMP — 535
BTR — 390
Self-propelled gun mounts — 348
MRLS "Hurricane" and "Grad" — 168
Launchers for air defense of "Book" and "Wasp" — 78
The Air Force and Air Defense USC "CENTER"
MiG-31 — 48
Attack helicopters Mi-24 — 32
Anti-aircraft missile systems S-300PS — 16 divisions.
Anti-aircraft missile system S-300V — 2 divisions.
ARMS OF THE ARMY OF PAKISTAN
Launchers for short-range missiles — 165
Tanks of all types — 2500 (of them — 320 T-80UD put Ukraine)
BTR — 1300
Self-propelled gun mounts — 260
MRLS — 50
Attack helicopters AH-1 "Cobra" — 25
COMPOSITION Pakistan Air Force
Total — about 400 combat aircraft (of them 50 American F-16).
COMPOSITION Lanzhou Military neighborhood ARMY OF CHINA
Panzer Division — 2
Infantry divisions — 2 (2 more — in reserve)
Gornopehotnyh divisions — 1
Anti-aircraft artillery divisions — 2
Infantry brigades — 3
Artillery brigades — 2
Air defense brigades — 2
Bomber Air Division — 1 (improved Tu-16)
Fighter Air Division — 2
Ground-based air defense — one regiment of S-75