Go to the salon MAKS-2011 TSAMTO prepared refreshed valuation analysis of the global market of functional fighter for the past 8-year period (2003-2010.) And the forecast for the coming four-year period (2011-2014.).
As in 2003-2010., And in 2011-2014. Our homeland occupied, and will hold steady second place after the United States.
This analysis takes into account the price of all deliveries — new planes, license applets, repair, modernization and delivery of the Armed Forces of exporting countries.
Assessment of the value of the global market fighters in 2003-2010.
According to TSAMTO, global multi-role fighters are actually exported in value terms in 2003-2010. amounted to little more than 69 billion dollars. The largest volume of exports recorded fighters in 2007 — 10.844 billion dollars, accounting for 15.7% of the total value of world exports of fighters for the considered 8-year period. Small annual export volume recorded fighters in 2009 — 7.509 billion dollars, which is associated with the transfer of a number of supply due to the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. Already in 2010 the world market fighters has increased by more than 1 billion dollars to $ 8,681 billion dale. Yet, it is much less a record performance in 2007.
1st place by value of exports of functional fighter for the period 2003-2010. are the United States — USD 36.197 billion, accounting for 52.46% of total world exports in this category. The highest export value of U.S. fighter was recorded in the 2005-2007 period., Respectively, 5.742 billion dollars, 6.328 billion dollars and 5.834 billion dollars. In the next two years, there has been place a sharp drop in sales — 3,841,000,000 dollars and in 2008 and 2.108 billion dollars in 2009 In 2010, the United States took to the volume of sales in the amount of 4.624 billion dollars (53.27% of total world exports of fighters in 2010).
Second place in the period 2003-2010. Our homeland is — 14,732,000,000 dollars (21.35% of the world market). The peak of the fall in sales came in 2006 — 752 million dollars. In the coming of the Russian Federation failed to make up the loss it suffered in the Chinese market, though, as long as the level of record on cost volumes in 2003-2004. could not get out. In 2010, the export value of the Russian Federation for this category amounted to 1.464 billion dollars (16.86% of the world market).
Third place over the period of 2003-2010. England is — 6334000000 dollars (9.18%). In 2010, exports amounted to 1.56 billion England dollars (17.97% of the market). England came out in the lead group of exporters multi-role fighters for the 8-year period, according to the results the last 4 years.
Fourth place in the period 2003-2010. France takes — 5,551,000,000 USD (8.04% market share). In 2010, French exports amounted to only 289 million dollars, and in 2009 was registered zero exports in this category. Due to the low performance of exports during the last 3 years, France has lost a third position in the world rankings England.
5th place in the period 2003-2010. Sweden is — 2460000000 dollars (3.57% market share). Almost Sweden came to the world market only fighter in 2005 and in 2010, was recorded zero exports.
Sixth place over the period of 2003-2010. China takes — 1,073,000,000 USD (1.56% market share). China became the leading group of 8-year period as a result the last 3 years and beat Israel. In 2010, the volume of China's exports in this category is estimated at $ 300 million.
Seventh place is occupied by Israel with the volume of exports in 2003-2010. in the amount of 911 million dollars. In 2010, the volume exports Israel in this category amounted to 285 million dollars.
In the middle of large exporters in the sector over the period of 2003-2010. it should also be noted the Netherlands (353 million dollars), Germany (339 million dollars), Ukraine (334 million dollars), Belgium (129 million dollars), Belarus (123 million dollars) and Switzerland (110 million dollars). .
In general, the category of functional fighter aircraft in 2003-2010. The delivery of 25 states (taken into account the supply of the new fighters, license applets, modernization, repair and delivery of the Air Force of the exporting country).
Forecast of the total world market fighters in 2011-2014.
According to the available knapsack orders as of June 1 of this year, in 2011, world exports in multi-role fighters will be more than 13.991 billion dollars in 2012 — 12.371 billion dollars in 2013 — 8.363 billion dollars in 2014 — 18.756 billion dollars. This is a very sharp increase in the market in comparison with the situation that took place in 2003-2010.
As of June 1, 2011 total worldwide contractual obligations to supply multi-role fighters in 2011-2014. (Including tenders) is 53.482 billion dale.
According to the available knapsack orders, shipments multi-role fighters in the United States in 2011 will be more than 6.384 billion dollars in 2012 — 5.847 billion dollars in 2013 — 2.665 billion dollars in 2014 — 9.848 billion dollars. The total contractual obligations to supply the U.S. multi-role fighters, as of June 1, 2011 for delivery in 2011-2014. (First rank) of 24.743 billion dollars (46.26% of the global package of orders for delivery in 2011-2014.).
The volume of exports of the Russian Federation in 2011, according to the available knapsack orders, projected at 3.872 billion dollars in 2012 — 3.401 billion dollars, in 2013 — 1.97 billion dollars in 2014 — 2.897 billion dollars. The total contractual obligations of the Russian Federation as of June 1, 2011 for delivery in 2011-2014. (Second rank) is 12.14 billion dollars (22.7%).
Third place goes to England — 2.053 billion dollars in 2011, 1.723 billion dollars in 2012, 1.723 billion dollars in 2013 and 1.477 billion dollars in 2014, total contractual obligations as of England June 1, 2011 with delivery in 2011-2014. amounts to 6.975 billion dollars (13.04%).
Fourth place is the category of "unknown" (tenders, the results of which are not yet announced). The volume of deliveries under this category in 2012 is estimated at $ 100 million, in 2013 — 120 million dollars in 2014 — 2.617 billion dollars. Total shipments for this category in 2011-2014. amounts to 2.837 billion dollars (5.3%).
5th place China holds. The total contractual obligations of China as of June 1, 2011 for delivery in 2011-2014. amounts to 2.6 billion dollars (4.86%).
Sixth place is France. The total contractual obligations of France as of June 1, 2011 for delivery in 2011-2014. amounts to 1.905 billion dollars (3.56%).
It must be emphasized that in this calculation (as of June 1, 2011) is not included treaty signed at the end of July 2011 to modernize the fleet of fighters "Mirage 2000N» Indian Air Force. Part of the supply contract have filed for the period up to 2014, in other words, France moved up in the ranking.
Indian Air Force signed a contract with the "Dassault Aviation" and "Tales" for the modernization of 51 fighter "Mirage 2000N" on July 29. Price contract signed with the "Dassault" and "Thales", estimated at 2.4 billion dollars. The agreement provides for the modernization of fighters "Mirage 2000", as the supply for their more than 400 missiles MICA.
is occupied by Sweden. The total contractual obligations of Sweden as of June 1, 2011 for delivery in 2011-2014. amounts to 1.675 billion dollars (3.13%).
In the middle of other states on a package of orders for delivery of multi-role fighters in 2011-2014. it must be emphasized Israel (265 million dollars), the Netherlands (165 million dollars), South Africa (80 million dollars), and Turkey (75 million dollars).
If you end up tender MMRCA program there without incident comes to a logical end and the winner will be named one of the companies included in the list of small ("Dassault Aviation" or "Eurofighter"), a substantial increase shred the 1st of Western fighters in the world market should be wait from 2015 onwards.
A full report on the world market fighters in 2003-2010. and the years 2011-2014. placed in the magazine "World trade in arms» № 7.