Our homeland: between Qatar and Nabucco

I. In clover

Qatar lives very well. This malehankih Government (11586 sq. km.) With a population of just 1.7 million people receive income from the sale of gas (6th largest exporter in the world) and oil (21 th). Qatar is the first in the world in terms of GDP per capita (over 93,000 dollars). Not so long ago, its inhabitants broke the world record for the specific weight ozhirelyh people in the country, ahead of the United States. Already more than half of Qataris suffering obesity. Hasan Taiz, one of the inhabitants of the country, admits: "All because we are in Qatar just sit, smoke and eat a heavy meal frisky food restaurants. Work a little, everything is automated, and most of us spend time in offices and cars "("Arguments and Facts").

Russia: between Qatar and "Nabucco"

"The country is inhabited by people who used to come for a longish dinar, and now embody its actual doctrine, which is a very primitive: eat and sleep," — writes "Komsomolskaya Pravda". In Qatar, for the moment Rial currency unit, but that gluttony is not a hindrance.

In general, a katana in clover Qatar, where a lot of "McDonald's", not all ozhireli so that it is able to think about food and Spanier. Some in the ruling circles, swallowing saliva, but courageously refusing to another delicious donut or sweet second liter of Coca-Cola, is building quite substantial energy strategy. To the detriment of the interests of, incidentally. After all, our home has been the same, than Qatar. No, we're not talking about trips to the "McDonald's" of double cheeseburgers, and the export of oil and gas.

Neozhirevshie Qataris neozhirevshimi here at the same time with the Yankees.

Doctor of Economic Sciences, managing geo-economics department of the Academy of Russian geopolitical problems and managing information-analytical agency «ANNA» Marat Musin believes that at the current time, the United States, involving the "cooperation" of Qatar, produce a geopolitical and economic strategy, similar to that in 1980 's. was one of the global circumstances of the destruction of the Soviet Union. If at that time the price of oil hit (up to $ 12 per barrel), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, today, controlled by the U.S. «Exxon Mobil», engaged in gas.

Qatar passed the USA ("Exxon Mobil") and Britain ("BP"), the leading technology for the liquefaction and transportation of gas, forward-Russian, by the views of M. Mussina fifteen years. Qatar has a "magnificent fleet of 54 special courts — South Korean gas carriers built Class Q-max (270 thousand tons of LNG) and Q-flex (166). But the danger of overlap Strait of Hormuz Iran will not allow Qatar to replace the guaranteed "Gazprom" in the same Europe. To do this, lay gas pipeline, at a minimum, to the Mediterranean, as a maximum, through Turkey and on to Europe. In reality, this can be done only through the countryside of Syria, at a strategic ally of Iran will never agree. Note that the richest deposit of North placed on the border of Qatar and Iran, where it is called South Pars' (Marat Musin, "eve").

The existence of a new geopolitical scenario gas "regrouping" Musin proves last year's events in Libya and the present vector of American policy in Syria.

I recall that the global hegemon Syria with its own allies, including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, trying to democratize, by dividing the poor "buffer zone" and "humanitarian corridors". It must be remembered also that Israel and the United States firmly adjusted in relation to Iran. Who knows, if fall down instead of bunker busters on Iranian nuclear facilities hydrocarbon deposits? .. Let's go back to the Musin.

"The main underlying reason in the events in the Middle East — he says — just a financial background, so how exactly it will determine the future of such countries as our homeland, China, Iran and Germany. For an "energy superpower" of Russia and Iran is now secured hydrocarbons natural to ensure its energy resources to Europe and China. For the latter — to get them out of the Russian Federation, Iran and Algeria, regardless of the desires USA. Including for the main EU economy Germany. Price war Gazprom Qatar has already announced more so that the latter is not, depending on the state — the transit of gas "(Marat Musin, "eve"). And further: "In order to deliver flows to Europe from the south under the control of U.S. satellites, you need to dismember Syria, the revolution in Algeria and the bombing of Iran's oil fields. In Syria, should be controlled by the Yankees or the management of the country, or part of a country should leave as a buffer. In other words, we are talking about the dismemberment "(same source). Musin draws the following scenario: "gas isolation" of the Russian Federation through Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the use of economic levers "price — quality". "Either they will transfer terminals for liquefied in a non-hazardous area in the Mediterranean — says Musin — or will pull the pipeline on, but it profitable to build up to 2 thousand kilometers further profitable liquid gas carry. The pressure will be very strong in the coming 12 months. As an alternative, if the Americans did not take, many may leave the zone of bucks to start the calculations in the state currencies to make an independent from the Yankees system of international financial settlements "(same source). So Makarov, for the implementation of these strategies can be employed combined variant associated with both transportation of liquefied gas by sea, and with the construction of a gas pipeline through the area of Jordan and Syria in a friendly dismembered USA Turkey.

As you know, Qatar — one of the supporters of davneshnih weapons so called Syrian opposition. "The ideological cover and mobilization of Islamist militants in Qatar produces Chairman of the Global Council of Islamic theologians, Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, the last head of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, whose profound effect on the Emir and the highest degree of Russo-phobia should not be underestimated. In particular, given its active support of the Chechen terrorists. That's why the Qatari channel "Al Jazeera" the morning until the evening engaged neuvvyazkami Syria and Qatar Qatari transporters of the Air Force in Jordan and Turkey are thrown mountain guns for the "Syrian Free Army", publicly funded Syrian troops terrorists and Islamic militants "(M. Musin, «ANNA»).

As regards the alleged cooperation of "Exxon Mobil" with Russia, the one here, Musin, one big swindle. "There need to be aware of, we have projects on paper or real investments — it's a variety of things. Qatar also promises us "Yamal LNG", "Ural Industrial — Ural Polar" and other projects, but when it comes to money, it turns out that it's lime. Inveigle us into expensive projects, we spend money, and when it comes down to it, it turns out that our partners have "thrown". As a result, we have debt problems, and they are not to blame. «Exxon Mobil» conducts an active policy of this and he as a mouthpiece of American interests in oil and gas, of course, will try to keep control of the processes and in
Russia and in other countries "(M. Musin, "eve").

In the words El Murid, "For some reason Qatar constantly keeps Russia on a small leash, expressing intrigued by what one or the other, then in the 3rd big investment projects of — ultimately giving up and starting to show enthusiasm to the next. Taking into account that want to invest in the Russian economy is not so much, Qatar behaves as provided uncle, waving in front of his nose Russian nomenclature bucks a pack — with all this clearly chasing empty. "

By Musin, it appears that the current strategy "Exxon Mobil", she is South American strategy, it and Qatar, and on the Union-hydrocarbon and Saudi intentions with regard to economic confrontation Moscow planned to follow a series of events: 1) South American oil and gas blockade of — across Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and 2) the substitution of Russian gas supplies to Europe for the supply of the satellite countries the U.S. (this is dismembered Syria build democracy in Algeria and bombed Iranian deposits), and 3) maintaining dollar as one of the major currencies in the world, along with non-admission of the creation of another system of international payments (such, for example, may be a system of BRICS, or at least a system of direct payments in rubles and yuan). In other words, we are dealing with early rigid strategy designed for that, so as not to fall off the buck — the same one that is used to call all the scorn "green papers" and which still remains one of the major currencies.

"Successful implementation of these long-running U.S. plans — writes M. Musin — allows you to damage a bunch of planned euro — the ruble and the euro — the yuan, to make the yuan common regional currency, to put Europe and Germany in dependence on U.S. satellites energoelementov, to force Russia to surrender. Of course, in such situation, China will be obliged to start a direct annexation of Russian territory and resources that are likely to lead to a military confrontation 2-nuclear powers … "(«ANNA»).

According to the belief Mussina now perfectly oppose the plans of the United States prevents the deindustrialization of. Solve is brewing geopolitical and economic problem of our country would assist: alliance with Germany (the Germans to us — the highest technology, we give them — hydrocarbons on Assurances of Supply), a strong strategic friendship with Syria, Iran, India and China, the creation independent of the U.S. international system of cash payments . In another proposed coupled blow to the gas and oil Our homeland will not survive.

Already at this time Moscow has lost 3% of the gas market, as the Qatar gas supplies to Europe (Victoria Fomenko, "Trud"). In other words, Qatar is going to gain a foothold in the European market of liquefied natural gas. Here he "comes into direct konkurentnst with" Gazprom "and its pipeline gas. To this end, created an extensive infrastructure: funded the establishment of LNG terminals in Europe, considered the ability of entry into the European energy structure, and the house still under construction one a large sea port and built under the LNG gas carriers.

Soon the 25 laid on the stocks in Qatar supertankers project Q-Max, capable of carrying 150 million cubic meters per flight will be the mighty armada of expansion in the external markets. This armada, when you consider that over the shoulder of the Qatari producer looks South American "Exxon Mobil", will be used to undermine the status of the Russian Federation as a leading supplier of gas to Europe. There is a perception that with such a massive lever neoconservative lobby in Washington, the diverting of, in the best case, the role of the U.S. vassal in the future confrontation with China, try to force Moscow to abandon completely independent of foreign policy … "(Vadim Vikhrov Strategic Culture Foundation).

"As a result, under the noses of" Gazprom "- writes El Murid, — Quickly built regasification terminals in Europe — in the South, the North, in the UK. Built a huge fleet of LNG carriers — in this case a series of Q-Max on May 20 copies — not the only one and not the last. Be aware that 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year — is, of course, only 5% of the EU market of gas, but we are talking about something that is — in addition to the already running projects. A Qatar silently pulled over for 6 euros per cent of the market, resulting fraction of "Gazprom" has decreased from 26 to 24. But do not forget about Libya, where Qatar sits tightly on the Libyan gas, and most importantly — keep in mind Algeria, which is absolutely outrageous though and accountable, but almost throughout and sovereign policy in the gas sector. By all indications, Algeria — one of the next targets for democratization. By the time Qatar will build its own fleet and create the infrastructure for LNG supplies, the fate of Algeria will be solved. One way or another. "

So, Russia is a place prepared in postsiriyskom and postalzhirskom world. And perhaps postiranskom. In general, while analysts us scare its geopolitical forecasts, Iranian President Ahmadinejad, ready in case anything happens to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which one is not too far Qatar carries its products to the European market, skillfully negotiating with the "six", and Syrian President Bashar Assad with joy notes as Syrian opposition terrorist hundred square meters of rented army favorites. It seems that if the Russian Federation will retain its influence in Syria — but it needs to continue to defend the position before the brutal West — then the chances of survival in the post-industrial world, it turned out, contrary to forecasts of futurist Alvin Toffler, a typical commercial, she will. And the reason appears excessive speed up economic ties with BRICS — On the background of confrontation buck. And the expansion of BRICS would be good to think of it, including mineral-based … that Russia OPEC when the BRICS could enter both Syria and Iran? That, somehow embarrassing from the standpoint of international diplomacy — against the background of the "nuclear" hysteria around Tehran? .. But everywhere comfortable States, where the oil or gas. And if Our homeland will not come back — with a proposal to conventional union, by the way, not by oil or gas — that at some point there will be either States or their ozhirelye satellites.

So, Syria, in what observers are already in the United Nations (by the way, even a little critical of the opposition for the attacks), and severe Iran — are serious obstacles to the implementation of geo-economic plans of the United States and Qatar, with the Saudis. A 5 per cent of the EU market gas from Qatar — it's not so much. But RF you need to keep your eyes open.

The fact is that, except for "de-industrialization", prevents RF great place to live — well, in the manner rastolstevshego Qatar — and the behavior of the management of "Gazprom", as if not noticing the imminent "competitive" difficulties. Other analysts behold the here, however, is not so much the problem of "Gazprom" as "pro-American" control of, others believe that senior managers of "Gazprom" — entirely relatives and godfathers and part-time members and a "fifth column", others believe These executives are simply incompetent; Musin simply states a fact: "They have not come out of these projects. "Gazprom" still does not think that Qatar has thrown us. They had just uttered, that, say, guys, let's be friends, there are so many billions' ("The day before").

Venerate El Murid:

"The paradox of the situation is that a powerful and very rich in natural resources — financial, human, administrative, lobbying, etc. — The structure of "Gazprom" quite helpless in the field of outdoor exploration. In the area of strategic forecasting. <…>

No action … ahead of the curve — just a reaction to the action. This is only one explanation — not the usual corporate intelligence and analytical prediction.

With all of this just in the area of counter-intelligence from "Gazprom" all right — at least, not the loud punctures with leaks, no desertions senior personnel inside the company actively combating mishandled Cossack girls with talkers and so on. <…> The outer layer, apparently, just bad luck.

In my opinion, at this point for Gazprom (and Russia) have a true fundamental task though belatedly, but correctly and specifically damage ahead of Gazprom's plans to conquer the markets — and the first in Europe. "

El Murid offers "Gazprom" to make analytical center, which responds to external danger. In-2, "Gazprom" (like with Russia) is to determine the strategic allies. In Europe, Germany is mentioned above, in Asia — also referred to Syria, Iran and China. Well, in Africa, said Algeria.

(That's right: all plotting against whom a terrible States geopolitical game, you need to be friends with Russia. And of — to be friends with them. Overall enemy rallies, you know.)

In the end, El Murid offer does not stand on ceremony in corporate wars. Courteous competitiveness — but whether she? .. Therefore proposed the implementation in Qatar those who are not really put on weight — 15% Shia population, who come from Iran. This is a "color revolution" in Qatar, which could initiate Iran.

Once in Qatar beat our ambassador — we at least have a reason for the competitive response. El Murid believes that beating the ambassador — in fact, the same as attack or sabotage a ship on the ground.

As for the "Gazprom" (to him from the RF harmonic crosses El Murid), then because "this is where selfish interests coincide with municipal nomenclature. Specifically war with Qatar now — this is the point of consensus, which can not fully explain the spasm of psychological unity government and society. Qatar has coveted not only for Russian interests — he robs our product range. Taking away their belongings back-breaking labor. For whom did the revolution in '91 our oligarchs? For whom they poured the blood of Moscow in 93 and were placed on the throne in 96 semi-corpses half-drunk? Aboriginal al-Thani, is it? "

II. Bypassing!

Lowering the "dependence" of the European Union on "Gazprom" (read: Europe of the Russian Federation) is planned and the other way in which the "natural" client Germany Russian gas is competitive nearby pipe. However, this way is more difficult, if thought to the dismemberment of Syria, bombing Iran, the occupation of Algeria and doing Qatar's leading gas supplier in the world.

It is about the planned construction of the gas pipeline "Nabucco".

From the huge gas pipeline 3.9 thousand km (from the Caspian Sea to Austria) at first refused his entertainers in 2012.

Russia: between Qatar and "Nabucco"

In January, U.S. Special Envoy for Energy Europe and Asia (there are such, yes), Richard Morningstar, speaking at the conference "Natural gas and Ukraine's energy future," said: "In the near future, it became clear that with the money and time in terms of its more difficult to implement "("Rossiyskaya Gazeta"). Implementation of the project will claim long effort. Besides gas is unlikely to be filled to 100%.

Then, in the middle of March 2012, the newspaper «Financial Times» said that "a stripped-down version of the pipeline has been called Nabucco West, approved by a majority of shareholders of the project, in which an equal fraction of the estimated 16.67% participating Austrian OMV Gas & Power GmbH, Hungary MOL, Bulgarian Bulgargaz, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas and German RWE Supply & Trading GmbH. Noteworthy that project Nabucco West was presented and British BP, which the shareholders of the Nabucco does not go, but is interested in transporting gas from Azerbaijan's Shah-Deniz "(Alexander Shustov, Strategic Culture Foundation).

All these gentlemen mean that stuff Europe, including Germany, the gas is not our home, and Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan — bypassing Russia. This strategic detour on the economic diversification of the language was called "EU energy supply routes" (Alexei Chichkin, "Rossiyskaya Gazeta"). A lot of talk about the "diversified" Turkmen gas supplies to Europe was the place to be at the forum "Turkmenistan — Europe: Prospects for Cooperation", which ended on March 16 in Berlin. The head of the European Commission Energy Directorate Jean Arnold Vinoy, speaking on behalf of the European Commissioner for Energy Guenther Oettinger, said that the EU energoelementami cram more purposefully through the "Southern Gas Corridor", a piece of which is to become a gas pipeline "Nabucco." Gas goes to Europe through the pipe through Azerbaijan and Turkey. Vinoy urged Turkmenistan to hurry up with the decision, expressing the fear that the other gas players — for example, our homeland, Iran, Iraq, — pull the cat's tail will not. In general, they are able to do so, he did not elaborate.

But the minister of oil and gas industry and mineral resources of Turkmenistan Bairamgeldy Nedirov confused Card Western players.

According to A. Chichkin, minister "said that" in 2030, it is planned to increase the volume of gas production to 230 billion cubic meters a year, out of their 180 billion. will be exported. " With all this he gave realize intrigued about Turkmenistan to supply and Russia: "The main buyers of Turkmen gas — that's our homeland, China and Iran. Ends ready to start building a gas pipeline through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. "

What's all the same for the EU thrusts, then there is nothing definite Nedirov said, diplomatically, and only mentioned that "in the near future significantly activated the process of substantive discussion of the pipeline in the direction of Europe."

So Makar, if the problem of the future with a resource base (with 100% coverage), "Nabucco" gas pipeline decided shortening of the future, the problem of negotiating with Turkmenistan can not solve — though Ashgabat and refuses to present the idea to build a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea as of this (meaning, in general, conflicts with Azerbaijan — about quota deliveries).

Another difficulty with the construction of a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea: the question of the legal status of the sea is not settled. This internal aqua pool is not covered by international maritime law. "Water surface and bottom of the sea so far are not differentiated — writes A. Pasha, — And therefore the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline and from a legal and practical point of view, looks confusing affair. "

But the EU on their own "diversification" c
ircuitous thinking is not going to turn away (as well as the U.S. — on their own). However, the German company «RWE» said in February that it nabukkovsky interest may come to nothing, and the Turkish Ministry of Energy was not considered "Nabucco" project priority (G. Lomsadze, «Eurasianet»), But this is not the states of the "funeral" of geopolitical ideas for infringement of Russian interests.

In the newspaper "Financial Times", in the "Brussels blog" for March 22, an article by Joshua Chaffin "Another nail in the coffin of" Nabucco "?"

From the article, we learn that one of the stalwarts of the gas project, started by bypassing the Russian Federation with a view to eliminating the "Europe's dependence on Russian gas imports" — is the European Commission, the executive body of the EU. In the financing of the project «Nabucco» invested 200 million euros. The article also states that if European politicians see "Nabucco" from the standpoint of geo-strategy, one of the potential participants in the project — «BP» — treats it with a "cold commercial calculation." Shortened and thus cheapening of the project has received the title of "Nabucco West". Turn away from the project, which is a little lost in the economic scope, but niskolechko not lost in geostrategic terms, Europe is not wanted.

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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